How long will it be before Labour wins another election?

[diptheriadan]

I'm an ignorant American and as a outsider looking in, it seems that Labour's pretty screwed. They can either win back seats in Scotland, form a coalition government with the SNP, or win the necessary seats in England. All three seem pretty unlikey. It seems that the SNP has a stronghold in Scotland. If they from a government with the SNP, they'll lose Scotland after the next General because Scotland would likely leave. It also seems that barring a Blairite becoming leader, they can't gain a majority of seats in England.

[DavidB.]

Too early to say. If the Tories mess things up regarding Brexit and/or Corbyn is ousted before the election and replaced with a non-radical person who is acceptable to the voters they lost in England, Labour could win in 2020.

[DC Al Fine]

Too early to say. If the Tories mess things up regarding Brexit and/or Corbyn is ousted before the election and replaced with a non-radical person who is acceptable to the voters they lost in England, Labour could win in 2020.

Comparing Labour with the GOP is an apt analogy.

Both parties have bases that are radical enough to make them lose elections but large enough to keep them competitive. While it appears hopeless for each party, they could get their acts together/their opponents could mess up at anytime.

[DL]

I expect Corbyn to be crushed in the next election - be it in 2017 or in 2020. he will then quit, then Sadiq Khan will become the new Labour leader and he will win the following election.

[Slow Learner]

I expect Corbyn to be crushed in the next election - be it in 2017 or in 2020. he will then quit, then Sadiq Khan will become the new Labour leader and he will win the following election.

Since obviously he'll just up and ditch London for a feckless task like Leader of the Labour party.

[Gary J]

It could be anything from never to the next election.

If the existing Labour Party retains major party status, in a first past the post electoral system, then it will eventually regain power when Conservatives support falls far enough. It might have to be firstly as a minority government,  which is daring the SNP and other non-Conservative forces not to vote it out of office. As with the first Labour government, in 1924, it might be more important to gain the added credibility of being in power than in actually achieving anything much in office.

Alternatively Labour may split in the next few weeks. If a Corbyn led Labour Party loses most of the existing Labour MPs and ceases to be the official opposition, then there may be a chance of the new party becoming the major anti Conservative force for the future.

The worst case scenario for Labour would be for both fragments of the Labour Party to be largely wiped out at the next general election. Perhaps the 50 or so SNP MPs would be the official opposition in the next Parliament, with a very large Conservative majority and other anti Tory groups reduced to small fragments which would have to realign into something new to create a credible future challenger for government.

Given the extreme rigidity of the British party system the first option is most likely, but unusually the second and third possibilities are not unthinkable. We will just have to wait and see what happens in the next few weeks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why would anyone make predictions right now? Labour is in a very bad way and the historical precedents are not encouraging (eighteen years out of power last time there was a serious faction fight, never forget). But it has a larger and more loyal core vote than is really appreciated and this government has Cameron's various toxic legacies to battle with; if the present situation could genuinely resolve and the Party look like a credible government in waiting then who knows? More likely, alas, is a continuation of kicking the sh!t out of each other for what practically amounts to reasons of Tradition. Part of the problem is that many are delusional that total victory is possible in internal conflict. I'm starting to understand why 'middle class intellectual' is a traditional codeword for 'utter bastard' in Party slang...

[Cassius]

As Al alluded to, it's important to remember that, in spite of all the infighting and chaos in the Labour Party over the past year and a half (intensifying in the last 3 months) Labour has, if I recall correctly, never dipped below 27% in the opinion polls, and has often been polling as high as 30-33%. Now, even if we don't trust polling entirely (with good reason, considering last years election), these are not catastrophic figures - it's not enough for Labour to get back into government, and they may lose further seats on this share of the vote (especially if the Tory share goes up), but I can't see Labour being under 200 or so seats if things continue to pan out as they are. That's not factoring in Labour getting its act together (either under Corbyn or somebody else) or, perhaps more likely, the government becoming so deeply unpopular that even a divided Labour party looks good by comparison. I mean, the Conservatives have a small majority, and are going to have to deal with one of the trickiest issues for this country in decades, leaving the EU. Add to that the fact that they seem hell bent on going out on a limb with other controversial projects (ie the Grammar Schools thing), and things could turn very bad very quickly for the government. Whilst Theresa May seems to have this (in my opinion confected) image as a competent, serious politician, this image is going to take a bruising between now and the next election, and she may not be the asset that she appears to be now.

I don't think it's out of the question that Labour could form some sort of minority government in 2020, but then again, forming a government under such circumstances may not be a good thing for the party.

[adma]

The worst case scenario for Labour would be for both fragments of the Labour Party to be largely wiped out at the next general election. Perhaps the 50 or so SNP MPs would be the official opposition in the next Parliament, with a very large Conservative majority and other anti Tory groups reduced to small fragments which would have to realign into something new to create a credible future challenger for government.

If something like that were the case in extremis, than I can see a lot of those Yorkshire-style "hard Labour" seats going UKIP rather than Tory--sort of like, UKIP being to SNP what Reform was to the BQ in Canada in 1993...

[Beezer]

The GOP is in a completely different position. It has turned into a lily white religious party in a country that is becoming less white and more secular with each passing day. Labour doesn't have to worry about anything. Corbyn will get shlonged in the next election, he'll resign and in 2025 they will once again be in government.

[Zinneke]

The GOP is in a completely different position. It has turned into a lily white religious party in a country that is becoming less white and more secular with each passing day. Labour doesn't have to worry about anything. Corbyn will get shlonged in the next election, he'll resign and in 2025 they will once again be in government.

They still need to get constituencies in southern towns and cities that won't fall on their lap the way they did for Blair in '97. Effectively losing the safe Scotland seats to the SNP is a major blow.

[Phony Moderate]

The GOP is in a completely different position. It has turned into a lily white religious party in a country that is becoming less white and more secular with each passing day. Labour doesn't have to worry about anything. Corbyn will get shlonged in the next election, he'll resign and in 2025 they will once again be in government.

They still need to get constituencies in southern towns and cities that won't fall on their lap the way they did for Blair in '97. Effectively losing the safe Scotland seats to the SNP is a major blow.

Assuming Scotland doesn't shift, Labour needs on paper about a 10% swing to get an overall majority on the proposed boundaries. Though that's in uniform terms - in reality it's probably more like an 8% swing as marginals tend to swing more heavily against the government than safe seats.

Putting figures of Lab 42, Con 29, LD 8, UKIP 12 into the Electoral Calculus gives a Labour majority of 3. And the following Tories all lose their seats:

Boris Johnson
Amber Rudd
IDS
Kenneth Clarke
Stephen Crabb
Bill Cash
Anna Soubry
Nicky Morgan

So quite a few 'Portillo moments' are required then.

[ChrisDR68]

I predict a Tory majority of around 80 at the 2020 general election.

If the Labour membership still want another left winger as leader at that point then the next general election is likely to be a lost cause too.

All depends what the leadership field is like in 2020 and how the current left wing party membership feels towards those candidates.