CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump tied in 13 swing states

[Tender Branson]

42% Clinton (-1)
42% Trump (nc)
  7% Johnson (+1)
  2% Stein (nc)
  2% Others (nc)

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This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 4202 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The margin of error is 1.9%.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/18/cbs-battlegrounds

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-tied-across-battleground-states

[swf541]

Battleground tracker is useless.

Also, wasnt this tied last week too?

[/]

I would assume that a popular vote tie in those thirteen states would result in each candidate getting approximately the same amount of electoral votes as well. I could see this result in the polled states:

Clinton - CO, MI, NH, NC, PA, VA, WI (87 Electoral Votes total)

Trump - AZ, GA, FL, IA, NV, OH (86 Electoral Votes total)

Of course, that would assume some rather sharp trends in NV and NC, but other than that, it seems like the most likely possibility.

[Tender Branson]

Battleground tracker is useless.

Also, wasnt this tied last week too?

It was C+1 last week.

It's not entirely useless, when compared with the 2012 results of these 13 swing states (O+2).

Otherwise, national polls would be useless too ...

[Slow Learner]

PA, MI, and NH being tied would make sense in a Trump surge scenario. GA, AZ, IA, and NC also being tied doesn't.

[LLR]

If this is true, the race is probably Clinton +2 nationally, which I could believe.

[Maxwell]

PA, MI, and NH being tied would make sense in a Trump surge scenario. GA, AZ, IA, and NC also being tied doesn't.

unless we are talking about a RE-ALIGNMENT ELECTION

[JJC]

Battleground tracker is useless.

Also, wasnt this tied last week too?

This. I don't put much stock into these kind of polls.

Individual state polls are really the only ones that matter. And maybe national polls for gauging who has the momentum.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

PA, MI, and NH being tied would make sense in a Trump surge scenario. GA, AZ, IA, and NC also being tied doesn't.

unless we are talking about a RE-ALIGNMENT ELECTION

[Senator Cris]

PA, MI, and NH being tied would make sense in a Trump surge scenario. GA, AZ, IA, and NC also being tied doesn't.

We don't know the numbers of every state. Maybe Trump is at +5 in Georgia and HRC at +6 in Pennsylvania. Who know, it's just speculation.

[Mallow]

I did an analysis to try to back out the individual state margins. I had to make plenty of assumptions, obviously, but I still thought the results were interesting.

First, I took the actual votes from 2012 to approximate the total voting population in each state relative to each other. For example, New Hampshire had 699,479 total votes, whereas Florida had 8,401,203 total votes, so Florida is weighted more than ten times as heavily than New Hampshire in the totals.

Next, I used 538's polls only forecast to approximate the current state of polling for 2016 for each state relative to each other. This is because the states have shifted relative to each other this year (for example, IA and OH will likely be voting significantly to the right of where they were last year, especially compared to states like NC and GA).

Based on this information, a tied result in all the states would give the following results for each state.
Clinton/Trump
AZ: 42.5/47.4 (R+4.9)
CO: 44.8/42.5 (D+2.3)
FL: 45.7/46.8 (R+1.1)
GA: 43.2/49.2 (R+6.0)
IA: 43.4/46.6 (R+3.2)
MI: 47.2/44.2 (D+3.0)
NV: 45.1/45.8 (R+0.7)
NH: 45.2/43.0 (D+2.2)
NC: 45.6/47.0 (R+1.4)
OH: 44.1/46.0 (R+1.9)
PA: 47.0/44.1 (D+2.9)
VA: 47.1/43.2 (D+3.9)
WI: 46.9/43.7 (D+3.2)

With CO, PA, and VA, Clinton would still win this election...

[Dumbo]

Without these 13 states Clinton has 212 EV and Trump 153,
so Clinton needs 58 of 173 swing states EV, Trump 116.
So an overall tie in these states doesn't help Trump much I think.

[Sbane]

So are they going to have individual state polls of just this trash?

[Sir Mohamed]

As long as the orange-skinned clown isn't competitative in PA, or CO+IA+NV in addition to FL and OH, he is far away from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

[Ebsy]

Meaningless.

[Mallow]

This is no more useless or meaningless than a national poll. In fact, one could argue it's more useful than a national poll.