Why is Florida a purple state and not a blue one?
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  Why is Florida a purple state and not a blue one?
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Author Topic: Why is Florida a purple state and not a blue one?  (Read 3112 times)
The Arizonan
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« on: September 18, 2016, 03:04:13 PM »

Why is Florida a purple state? I'm kind of surprised that Florida isn't blue with all the diversity that it has.
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angus
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2016, 03:09:07 PM »

Because purple is the color of majesty and it symbolizes mystery, magic, power and luxury.  No words better describe The Magic KingdomTM better than these, and The Magic KingdomTM is in Florida.

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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2016, 03:44:56 PM »

North Florida is pretty much an extension of the rest of the Deep South, plus Hispanics skew more Cuban -> Republican.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2016, 04:13:24 PM »

White voters in Florida are, on the whole, much more Republican than they are in states like Pennsylvania (especially in the North.) Also, as Ewards said, Cuban Americans are not as Democratic-leaning as Mexican Americans.
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2016, 04:32:18 PM »

Its an older state, everything north of Orlando is very Republican, and yeah...there are a lot of wealthier, more hawkish Hispanics though in reality, Cubans are ethnically Spanish and not Mestizo.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2016, 04:53:08 PM »

Northern Florida is the Deep South. Cubans are traditionally hawkish and republican, although not as much as during the Cold War. Central Florida has many suburban areas, white suburbanites, especially in the south, are mostly republican. Lots of conservative retirees. The gulf side has many moderate type republicans boosted by retirees in places like Fort Meyers, Sarasota et.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2016, 05:22:46 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2016, 07:04:44 PM by Virginia »

For a number of reasons I think:

1. Cubans have been a Republican constituency in FL for a long time, and it is only now beginning to change as a new, more Democratic generation of Cubans replaces them

2. Republicans on average have over a 20 point lead among white voters, and while not nearly as large as some other Southern states, it's large enough. Republicans made a +5 point gain among white voters between 2008->2012, and arguably their best showing among whites in a generation or more.

3. The primary driver behind Republican success right now in FL is older white/Cuban voters, and Florida has a lot of them. Right now it is the most elderly state in the country, and that, in combination with migration trends of old people => FL, has help Republicans offset demographic changes and their inevitable political ramifications.

4. African Americans punch below their weight here as FL's permanent felony disenfranchisement policy has led to something like 24% of the adult African Americans being unable to vote. They comprised 13% of the electorate in 2012 despite being 16.7% of the state's population. This is out of whack compared to other states with lax felony disenfranchisement policy, where blacks actually tended to match or exceed their share of the population in terms of voting.

5. * As stated by others, the state party is really a mess. In a state as divided like Florida, they should be doing better. Midterms tend to supercharge the influence of heavily Republican white voters (esp 65+), so it's reasonable to expect a degree of Republican dominance, but not like what has been going on.


However, there is, in my opinion, every reason to believe that the bottom is going to fall out for Republicans in the coming decade(s):

1. The new(er) generations of voters in FL are heavily diverse and heavily Democratic, and the ones that follow will be just as diverse:



2. Puerto Ricans fleeing the island are speeding up demographic political trends in FL

3. Younger Cubans are not staunch Republicans like their elders, and Cubans in general are shrinking as a size of the state's Hispanic population

4. There is a push to end permanent felony disenfranchisement in the state and may result in a ballot initiative in 2018, of which could substantially help African American voting power here.

5. College+ educated voters in FL are not only growing as a part of the electorate, but Democrats have been performing better and better with them for a while now, and they tend to be more reliable than less educated parts of the population. This is in line with national trends, and may have something to do with the growth of Millennials as a part of the electorate.


*** edit: added #5 - ineffective state party
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2016, 05:30:47 PM »

Hispanics here are generally more Cuban and more Republican than Hispanics as a whole.

Anywhere north of Central Florida is an extension of Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi and drive up huge Republican numbers.

Whites in Florida are much more conservative than their counterparts in Northern or Western states.

The population skews much older than the population as a whole (think The Villages)

African Americans are more likely to be disenfranchised as voters due to our Felony laws preventing many of them from being able to vote (it's why Blacks make up less of the actual electorate than their demographic suggests they could)
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SWE
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2016, 05:46:14 PM »

The incompetence of the FL Democratic Party probably doesn't help.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2016, 06:56:40 PM »

For a number of reasons I think:

1. Cubans have been a Republican constituency in FL for a long time, and it is only now beginning to change as a new, more Democratic generation of Cubans replaces them

2. Republicans on average have over a 20 point lead among white voters, and while not nearly as large as some other Southern states, it's large enough. Republicans made a +5 point gain among white voters between 2008->2012, and arguably their best showing among whites in a generation or more.

3. The primary driver behind Republican success right now in FL is older white/Cuban voters, and Florida has a lot of them. Right now it is the most elderly state in the country, and that, in combination with migration trends of old people => FL, has help Republicans offset demographic changes and their inevitable political ramifications.

4. African Americans punch below their weight here as FL's permanent felony disenfranchisement policy has led to something like 24% of the adult African Americans being unable to vote. They comprised 13% of the electorate in 2012 despite being 16.7% of the state's population. This is out of whack compared to other states with lax felony disenfranchisement policy, where blacks actually tended to match or exceed their share of the population in terms of voting.


However, there is, in my opinion, every reason to believe that the bottom is going to fall out for Republicans in the coming decade(s):

1. The new(er) generations of voters in FL are heavily diverse and heavily Democratic, and the ones that follow will be just as diverse:



2. Puerto Ricans fleeing the island are speeding up demographic political trends in FL

3. Younger Cubans are not staunch Republicans like their elders, and Cubans in general are shrinking as a size of the state's Hispanic population

4. There is a push to end permanent felony disenfranchisement in the state and may result in a ballot initiative in 2018, of which could substantially help African American voting power here.

5. College+ educated voters in FL are not only growing as a part of the electorate, but Democrats have been performing better and better with them for a while now, and they tend to be more reliable than less educated parts of the population. This is in line with national trends, and may have something to do with the growth of Millennials as a part of the electorate.

Honorable Mention: The fact that the state Democratic Party is a complete and total disaster and has been since Lawton Chiles died.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2016, 05:22:14 AM »


This is interesting.  What caused olds to tread away from the Democrats so heavily like that?
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2016, 10:06:10 AM »

People tend to forget that Hispanics are more of a Democratic-leaning swing Demographic then a strong Democratic demographic.

And let's not forget, as a GENERAL rule, the more minorities a state has, the more Republican the whites are. This is particularly true in the South and Midwest.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2016, 10:09:29 AM »


This is interesting.  What caused olds to tread away from the Democrats so heavily like that?

Obama's skin color.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2016, 10:21:50 AM »



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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2016, 10:28:31 AM »

Also, this just so happened to pop up in my FB feed right after I posted:

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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2016, 10:52:05 AM »


lol.. It does seem the more Democratic minorities get,  the more Republican whites get. But still, long term demographic trends favor Democrats in Florida. This is so long as current trends hold, and minorities continue to vote heavily Democrat. Especially with Hispanics, that is always a question.

I do not believe Democrats can rely solely on demographics to retain their edge in national elections. Even with changing demographics, our party is still disadvantaged naturally in the house with Democrats being packed in urban areas. This is before evil Republican gerrymandering.

Like like the original poster asking why Florida is purple instead of blue, it is just as applicable to ask why Texas and Georgia are so media-red, why Iowa and Wisconsin are quite Democratic, why Republican still often lose statewide in West Virginia and Missouri.
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Cubby
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2016, 09:34:17 PM »

......Lots of conservative retirees. The gulf side has many moderate type republicans boosted by retirees in places like Fort Meyers, Sarasota et.

Florida's West Coast seems to get more Republican retirees from the Midwest while the East Coast gets more Democratic ones from the Northeast. I-75 & I-95 might have contributed to that.

I don't have first hand knowledge of this but I would assume Moderate Republicans would be in places like Palm Beach/Orange/Lake, the West Coast seems more Tea Party-ish to me.

I wonder if The Villages votes more Republican than the FL Panhandle. It's spread out over 3 counties, primarily in Sumter though, so hard to say.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2016, 10:39:03 PM »

This is interesting.  What caused olds to tread away from the Democrats so heavily like that?

Part of the reason is generational replacement, but Florida's generational politics doesn't exactly match up with the national trends for the boomer generation, either, so there are other factors at work. There are a lot of old people migrating here as well, who bring their partisan habits with them, and that makes trying to decipher internal state trends for older FL voters harder. You also have to factor in racial issues and that the Democratic Party has been shifting leftwards, making it more unpalatable for some older conservative voters.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2016, 04:24:35 PM »

IIRC, the more minorities there are, the older the whites tend to be. That has some effect on voting patterns, and may have more to do with voting patterns than racial divides.
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