Why is Florida a purple state and not a blue one?

[Virginiá]

For a number of reasons I think:

1. Cubans have been a Republican constituency in FL for a long time, and it is only now beginning to change as a new, more Democratic generation of Cubans replaces them

2. Republicans on average have over a 20 point lead among white voters, and while not nearly as large as some other Southern states, it's large enough. Republicans made a +5 point gain among white voters between 2008->2012, and arguably their best showing among whites in a generation or more.

3. The primary driver behind Republican success right now in FL is older white/Cuban voters, and Florida has a lot of them. Right now it is the most elderly state in the country, and that, in combination with migration trends of old people => FL, has help Republicans offset demographic changes and their inevitable political ramifications.

4. African Americans punch below their weight here as FL's permanent felony disenfranchisement policy has led to something like 24% of the adult African Americans being unable to vote. They comprised 13% of the electorate in 2012 despite being 16.7% of the state's population. This is out of whack compared to other states with lax felony disenfranchisement policy, where blacks actually tended to match or exceed their share of the population in terms of voting.

5. * As stated by others, the state party is really a mess. In a state as divided like Florida, they should be doing better. Midterms tend to supercharge the influence of heavily Republican white voters (esp 65+), so it's reasonable to expect a degree of Republican dominance, but not like what has been going on.


However, there is, in my opinion, every reason to believe that the bottom is going to fall out for Republicans in the coming decade(s):

1. The new(er) generations of voters in FL are heavily diverse and heavily Democratic, and the ones that follow will be just as diverse:



2. Puerto Ricans fleeing the island are speeding up demographic political trends in FL

3. Younger Cubans are not staunch Republicans like their elders, and Cubans in general are shrinking as a size of the state's Hispanic population

4. There is a push to end permanent felony disenfranchisement in the state and may result in a ballot initiative in 2018, of which could substantially help African American voting power here.

5. College+ educated voters in FL are not only growing as a part of the electorate, but Democrats have been performing better and better with them for a while now, and they tend to be more reliable than less educated parts of the population. This is in line with national trends, and may have something to do with the growth of Millennials as a part of the electorate.


*** edit: added #5 - ineffective state party

[Virginiá]

This is interesting.  What caused olds to tread away from the Democrats so heavily like that?

Part of the reason is generational replacement, but Florida's generational politics doesn't exactly match up with the national trends for the boomer generation, either, so there are other factors at work. There are a lot of old people migrating here as well, who bring their partisan habits with them, and that makes trying to decipher internal state trends for older FL voters harder. You also have to factor in racial issues and that the Democratic Party has been shifting leftwards, making it more unpalatable for some older conservative voters.