GA-Monmouth: Trump +3

[DavidB.]

Also, Kelly Conway, Trump manager is bragging about his poll on twitter.  Battleground GA commences.

Bragging about how they have a slim lead within the MoE, in a previously safe Republican state. Just how low has the Trump campaign set the bar of expectations here?

^ this exactly, lol

[KingSweden]

Also, Kelly Conway, Trump manager is bragging about his poll on twitter.  Battleground GA commences.

Bragging about how they have a slim lead within the MoE, in a previously safe Republican state. Just how low has the Trump campaign set the bar of expectations here?

[NOVA Green]

Hillary needs to invest more money in GA.

[dspNY]

Georgia five points to the left of Iowa? That Trump +8 Iowa poll they took is an outlier

[Associate Justice PiT]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html

     So Trump is geographically depolarizing the country? That's actually a pretty cool idea in terms of putting a lot more states in play.

[Adam Griffin]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html

     So Trump is geographically depolarizing the country? That's actually a pretty cool idea in terms of putting a lot more states in play.

It wouldn't surprise me if instead, it's being caused by the lack of Obama more than anything else: at the very least, his absence from the electoral environment is creating the initial conditions for both Democrats and Republicans, North & South, to jump ship.

[henster]

Obama got 45/46 in '08/'12 Hillary only at 42% winning only 20% of whites, let's give her 96% of AAs and as high turnout as '08 and she gets to 46-47 maybe. We know Ds can easily get to 45-46% of the vote in GA the rest is very tough, Hillary needs at least 30% of white voters.

[HillOfANight]

If Trump continues to stay unacceptable to Atlanta Republicans, and bleeds 10% support to Johnson (if not her), she might need only 25%.

[dspNY]

If Trump continues to stay unacceptable to Atlanta Republicans, and bleeds 10% support to Johnson (if not her), she might need only 25%.

If Johnson got 6, the scenario for Hillary to win is this:

95% of African Americans (30% of the electorate)
70% of Hispanics/other (5% of the electorate)
24% of whites (65% of the electorate)

This would give Clinton 47.6%. Add Johnson's 6% and Clinton has a 1% win since there is only 46% of the vote remaining to be had. Now if Johnson's 6% falls to 4%, Clinton would need 25% of the white vote to win with 48.25%, or a 0.5% margin

[pbrower2a]

The largest possibilities of absolute gains for Hillary Clinton are in those states in which well-educated white voters went heavily for Mitt Romney in 2012.  The swing of educated voters from R to D is as  complete as it can be in many northern and western states. But look closely at Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas.

Florida, which went barely for Obama in 2008 and 2012 may be even more troublesome for where it is in its nearly-even split in partisanship. . 

[Adam Griffin]

I've done the math probably a dozen times across the forum at various points, but long story short: Clinton doesn't need anywhere near 30% of the white vote to win, and arguably, not even 25%.

If Clinton performs as well as Obama did in 2008 among all racial groups (23% among whites & 89% among everybody else), she wins the state with 50-51% of the vote.

A more balanced scenario might have Hillary garnering 25% of the white vote and around 85% of the rest in order to get to a majority. However, we have to factor in Johnson, which lowers the share of whites that she needs.

No matter how you dice it, Clinton can likely win GA with the 23% of whites that both Kerry received in 2004 and Obama received in 2008.

[HillOfANight]

Despite the polls, I'm doubtful she can keep his % among black voters...
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
Perdue got 7% in 2014 after all.

[Adam Griffin]

Despite the polls, I'm doubtful she can keep his % among black voters...
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
Perdue got 7% in 2014 after all.

She doesn't actually need it in what is appearing to be the likely scenario. Getting the 98% like Obama did in 2008 would actually make the overall non-white vote closer to 90-91% Democratic (rather than the 89% figure in 2008); because there are slightly more non-white voters than in 2008 and because Latinos/Asians are swinging Democratic. Blacks being 95% Democratic would probably be enough to balance it all out.

However, because Johnson pulling an extra couple of points is now also a reality, that number could be lowered even more. If Johnson gets 2.5%, then Hillary would be in a statistical tie with Trump if she merely got 23% of the white vote, 92% of the black vote and 65% of the rest (85% of the non-white vote).

[henster]

She only wins GA with a plurality maybe 47-48% of the vote, again Nunn was polling better like 46-49% even though she ended up with 45% same with Carter. I take GA polls with a grain of salt unless D is polling over 50%.

[ElectionsGuy]

So Hillary is more likely to win GA than IA? Surreal.

No, Georgia just doesn't blow with the national winds as much. It was single digit Trump lead before, single digit Trump lead now, so very consistent. Iowa is much less of a sure bet.

[jamestroll]

In just a few cycles, Georgia may well be a Democratic state in the presidential vote

I would think the state becomes majority non-white by 2030, at the latest, and Georgia Whites are not 9 to 1 Republican like in Alabama and Mississippi.