GA-Monmouth: Trump +3 (user search)
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  GA-Monmouth: Trump +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-Monmouth: Trump +3  (Read 3844 times)
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xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,282
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« on: September 19, 2016, 12:10:44 PM »

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 12:37:56 PM »

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html



White voters without a college degree are only part of the equation. If Hillary is within 3 in GA, that shows a massive improvement among college educates whites, which would have a smaller, but still noticeable impact in NV, and it likely means that minority turnout has not gone down (and may have gone up) since 2012, which is exactly why I stand by my assertions about NV.
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