GA-Monmouth: Trump +3

[HillOfANight]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html

[HillOfANight]

Clinton is getting no more support than obama did. It's trump that is bleeding votes to johnson.

True, he's losing more to Johnson than Clinton. Still, she's getting crushed by whites by only 40 in most Georgia polls, compared to Obama getting crushed by 50.

[HillOfANight]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html

White voters without a college degree are only part of the equation. If Hillary is within 3 in GA, that shows a massive improvement among college educates whites, which would have a smaller, but still noticeable impact in NV, and it likely means that minority turnout has not gone down (and may have gone up) since 2012, which is exactly why I stand by my assertions about NV.

as marty said, Trump is only up 40 among whites on her (46 in this poll), but most of that is going to Johnson, not her. She's in the low 20s with whites, which is where Obama was. Though if Johnson can sustain that support, that is good for her. Without a third party, she would need 30% of whites to win.

[HillOfANight]

If Trump continues to stay unacceptable to Atlanta Republicans, and bleeds 10% support to Johnson (if not her), she might need only 25%.

[HillOfANight]

Despite the polls, I'm doubtful she can keep his % among black voters...
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
Perdue got 7% in 2014 after all.