Youngest Senator on January 4, 2017
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Poll
Question: Who will be the youngest Senator on January 4, 2017?
#1
(still) Tom Cotton		  
#2
Conner Eldridge		  
#3
Patrick Murphy		  
#4
Caroline Fayard		  
#5
Jason Kander		  
#6
Mark Callahan		  
#7
Misty Snow		  
#8
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 61

Author Topic: Youngest Senator on January 4, 2017  (Read 2056 times)
Figueira
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« on: September 19, 2016, 12:02:47 PM »
« edited: September 19, 2016, 12:05:40 PM by Figueira »
I know most of these are longshots. "Other" could be new people appointed, or Cotton ends up out of the Senate for some reason, making someone older than him the youngest.

Anyway, my prediction is (unfortunately) still Cotton, but there's an outside chance of Murphy or Kander (Kander IMO has a higher chance of winning, but Murphy is younger than him so therefore has a higher chance of being the youngest).
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 12:12:04 PM »
Hopefully it'll be Murphy, but if the election were today, it would be Cotton.
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swf541
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2016, 01:05:30 PM »
Kander
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SWE
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2016, 02:40:00 PM »
Murphy
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2016, 02:40:31 PM »
Cotton
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Figueira
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2016, 02:58:14 PM »
BTW, I don't actually know if Callahan is younger than Cotton, but I included him just in case.
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windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2016, 03:00:40 PM »
Murphy
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2016, 03:10:18 PM »
Cotton.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2016, 03:12:08 PM »
Cotton. I just don't think Kander can hold up with how red Missouri is.
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windjammer
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2016, 03:14:55 PM »
Yes, I think he will underperform HRC by 5 points and that should be enough to win.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2016, 03:23:02 PM »
Probably still Cotton (and that's who I voted for), but I think Fayard is very undervalued. She would be the winner of a D v. D runoff in Louisiana, and the chance of that happening is at least as good as the chance of Kander winning in Missouri, and probably better than the chance of Murphy winning in Florida.

This poll would be helped by including the birth years of possible Senators, imo.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2016, 05:59:02 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 19, 2016, 12:12:04 PM
Hopefully it'll be Murphy, but if the election were today, it would be Cotton.
Murphy hasn't led in a single poll in months. why would he have any opportunity to be the youngest?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2016, 08:09:58 PM »
Quote from: Silent Cal on September 19, 2016, 05:59:02 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 19, 2016, 12:12:04 PM
Hopefully it'll be Murphy, but if the election were today, it would be Cotton.
Murphy hasn't led in a single poll in months. why would he have any opportunity to be the youngest?

Flawless Beautiful Marco Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart is ahead, but not by an insurmountable margin. If things swing in the Democrats' favor, it's still possible for Murphy to win. I don't get why so many people assume that Murphy can't make up a mid-single digit gap, but that Toomey and other Republicans can.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2016, 08:41:50 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 19, 2016, 08:32:39 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 19, 2016, 08:09:58 PM
Quote from: Silent Cal on September 19, 2016, 05:59:02 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 19, 2016, 12:12:04 PM
Hopefully it'll be Murphy, but if the election were today, it would be Cotton.
Murphy hasn't led in a single poll in months. why would he have any opportunity to be the youngest?

Flawless Beautiful Marco Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart is ahead, but not by an insurmountable margin. If things swing in the Democrats' favor, it's still possible for Murphy to win. I don't get why so many people assume that Murphy can't make up a mid-single digit gap, but that Toomey and other Republicans can.

Well, I guess that means Ron Johnson can win as well, since he is down by about the same margin as Murphy? Toomey is trailing by 2 in the polling average, Rubio by 8. The DSCC is making cuts to their ad buys in FL, which isn't a good sign for Murphy.

Republican groups aren't lifting a finger to help Kirk, and yet you have him winning. The average includes some Republican friendly polls taken during the last two weeks, which were generally terrible for Democrats. Flawless Beautiful Marco Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart is up 6.4, according to the RCP average, though that includes the likely R+11 outlier. That's not too different from Hagan's lead over Tillis in September. Many people assumed she was safe too, and Tillis was far from a perfect candidate.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2016, 08:47:31 PM »
Probably Tom Cotton, however I would not be shocked if it is Murphy or Kander though.
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BL53931
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2016, 02:20:53 PM »
Misty Snow? In Utah?

It'd be great but not gonna happen IMO.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2016, 06:20:13 PM »
When was Mark Callahan born? I can't find his age/birth info anywhere?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2016, 07:41:41 PM »
While Kander and Murphy are definitely possible, its likelier that Cotton will still be the youngest.
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Figueira
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2016, 08:22:14 PM »
Quote from: BL53931 on September 28, 2016, 02:20:53 PM
Misty Snow? In Utah?

It'd be great but not gonna happen IMO.

I agree, unfortunately. She's a terrible candidate for Utah. I included her (and other hopeless candidates) for completion's sake, but I'm aware the only plausible answers are Cotton, Kander, and Murphy.

Quote from: Heisenberg on September 28, 2016, 06:20:13 PM
When was Mark Callahan born? I can't find his age/birth info anywhere?

http://journalism.uoregon.edu/newsroom/special-projects/mark-callahan/

This says he's thirty-six, and it was published the day after Cotton's thirty-seventh birthday in 2014. Wink
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2016, 09:45:18 AM »
Quote from: Figueira on September 29, 2016, 08:22:14 PM
Quote from: BL53931 on September 28, 2016, 02:20:53 PM
Misty Snow? In Utah?

It'd be great but not gonna happen IMO.

I agree, unfortunately. She's a terrible candidate for Utah. I included her (and other hopeless candidates) for completion's sake, but I'm aware the only plausible answers are Cotton, Kander, and Murphy.

Quote from: Heisenberg on September 28, 2016, 06:20:13 PM
When was Mark Callahan born? I can't find his age/birth info anywhere?

http://journalism.uoregon.edu/newsroom/special-projects/mark-callahan/

This says he's thirty-six, and it was published the day after Cotton's thirty-seventh birthday in 2014. Wink
Thank you.
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