Clinton memo outlines 'many paths' to 270
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Author Topic: Clinton memo outlines 'many paths' to 270  (Read 1448 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 19, 2016, 11:43:20 PM »
« edited: September 19, 2016, 11:48:05 PM by Likely Voter »

Politico has got a hold on a Mook memo to calm donors and supporters.
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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clinton-campaign-memo-outlines-map-to-victory-228389

So if you are doing the math, that would be 9 paths for their 'many' paths (although some seem more plausible than others in a close race). It would also imply Trump has 3 paths (FL+OH+NC+CO+2 of IA, NV or NH)
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 11:45:23 PM »

This sounds like the 3-2-1 Pub strategy advertised by Rove in 2012. A losing strategy.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2016, 11:47:30 PM »

This sounds like the 3-2-1 Pub strategy advertised by Rove in 2012. A losing strategy.


Right, and I'm sure the OH/PA/NC/FL or bust strategy of the Trump campaign is a winning one...
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2016, 12:38:54 AM »

This sounds like the 3-2-1 Pub strategy advertised by Rove in 2012. A losing strategy.


Right, and I'm sure the OH/PA/NC/FL or bust strategy of the Trump campaign is a winning one...

Note that this was basically Romney's strategy in 2012 and McCain's in 2008. It wouldn't have worked even if those elections had been closer because PA is a much, much more difficult hill for the GOP to climb than the other states.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2016, 12:40:47 AM »

After mapping this out, they seem to be including Maine 2nd's district in the "Safe Clinton" category. Have they not seen the polls taken there?

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2016, 12:44:59 AM »

After mapping this out, they seem to be including Maine 2nd's district in the "Safe Clinton" category. Have they not seen the polls taken there?



Their internal polling might be telling a completely different story.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2016, 12:54:59 AM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 12:57:52 AM by Arch »

After mapping this out, they seem to be including Maine 2nd's district in the "Safe Clinton" category. Have they not seen the polls taken there?



Their internal polling might be telling a completely different story.

If it were, then NH wouldn't be considered a competitive state.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ That was my best guess.
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2016, 12:56:30 AM »

After mapping this out, they seem to be including Maine 2nd's district in the "Safe Clinton" category. Have they not seen the polls taken there?



Their internal polling might be telling a completely different story.

Exactly. I find it hard to believe that they wouldn't at least put some ads in ME-02 or visit it if their internal polls didn't find them well ahead. This is why I remain skeptical that Trump can win ME-02. I doubt Hillary's campaign would ignore it just because it's one electoral vote. They seem to be targeting NE-02, after all.
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Trapsy
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2016, 01:00:01 AM »

After mapping this out, they seem to be including Maine 2nd's district in the "Safe Clinton" category. Have they not seen the polls taken there?



Their internal polling might be telling a completely different story.

If it were, then NH wouldn't be considered a competitive state.

Thou shall not challenge TNVol on NH.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2016, 05:12:23 AM »

She nailed down 270; VA, CO, Pa and NH pretty early with Trump. Almost impossible for someone like him to win without Va
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2016, 07:05:00 AM »

After mapping this out, they seem to be including Maine 2nd's district in the "Safe Clinton" category. Have they not seen the polls taken there?



Their internal polling might be telling a completely different story.

Exactly. I find it hard to believe that they wouldn't at least put some ads in ME-02 or visit it if their internal polls didn't find them well ahead. This is why I remain skeptical that Trump can win ME-02. I doubt Hillary's campaign would ignore it just because it's one electoral vote. They seem to be targeting NE-02, after all.

There's also the fact that ME-02, with one electoral vote, only makes a difference in a very small number of scenarios.  I believe, within the framework being discussed in the memo, it would only make a difference if Clinton loses Colorado (assuming an EC tie is considered a loss), i.e. this map:



(or switch Iowa & Nevada, if you like).  If you're confident about Colorado, you can 100% of the time ignore ME-02.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2016, 07:36:54 AM »

Best thing about this memo is they don't consider Pennslyvania to be even close to in-play.
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Santander
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2016, 07:59:31 AM »

I like how they just pretend that 70% = 99%. I thought Democrats were supposed to be the educated ones?
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Rand
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2016, 09:09:21 AM »

I like how they just pretend that 70% = 99%. I thought Democrats were supposed to be the educated ones?

Democrats have won four of the last six elections and the popular vote in five of the last six elections.  They know what they're doing.
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Santander
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2016, 12:48:32 PM »

I like how they just pretend that 70% = 99%. I thought Democrats were supposed to be the educated ones?

Democrats have won four of the last six elections and the popular vote in five of the last six elections.  They know what they're doing.
Yes, they know how to divide the country into identity groups and pit them against each other.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2016, 12:54:53 PM »

Don't you people remember Mark Penn?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2016, 01:39:23 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 01:49:31 PM by Virginia »

Democrats have won four of the last six elections and the popular vote in five of the last six elections.  They know what they're doing.
Yes, they know how to divide the country into identity groups and pit them against each other.

As if the rise of the religious right & GOP didn't make abortion and gay marriage into wedge issues of their own. Hell, they are doing it this cycle with PP! Or how about the Republican Party exploiting racial issues to pry the South / white voters away from Democrats?

Seriously, come on now.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2016, 01:44:54 PM »

I suspect they didn't mention ME2 because it would overly complicate the memo, but if you take it off the table it removes 2 of 9 paths for Clinton, but then again you can put NE2 into the mix and get those back, further complicating things. 
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DS0816
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2016, 06:15:49 PM »

I like how they just pretend that 70% = 99%. I thought Democrats were supposed to be the educated ones?

Consider the Unpopularity Numbers—Hillary Clinton vs. Bernie Sanders.

It has been said, You will never go broke underestimating the intelligence of the public.

Same goes with the “Democratic Party.” (In 2016, they’re a travesty.)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2016, 06:41:36 PM »

I like how they just pretend that 70% = 99%. I thought Democrats were supposed to be the educated ones?

Democrats have won four of the last six elections and the popular vote in five of the last six elections.  They know what they're doing.
Yes, they know how to divide the country into identity groups and pit them against each other.

unlike the Republicans, who would never ever possibly think of dividing people into identity groups and pitting them against one another.

except for the countless examples of Republicans doing EXACTLY THAT.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2016, 06:43:13 PM »

She should spend less time bragging about how many "paths" she has, and more actually walking one of those paths.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2016, 06:43:54 PM »

I like how they just pretend that 70% = 99%. I thought Democrats were supposed to be the educated ones?

Consider the Unpopularity Numbers—Hillary Clinton vs. Bernie Sanders.

It has been said, You will never go broke underestimating the intelligence of the public.

Same goes with the “Democratic Party.” (In 2016, they’re a travesty.)
or Sanders's populism just didn't speak to them...
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White Trash
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2016, 06:53:02 PM »

Democrats have won four of the last six elections and the popular vote in five of the last six elections.  They know what they're doing.
Yes, they know how to divide the country into identity groups and pit them against each other.

As if the rise of the religious right & GOP didn't make abortion and gay marriage into wedge issues of their own. Hell, they are doing it this cycle with PP! Or how about the Republican Party exploiting racial issues to pry the South / white voters away from Democrats?

Seriously, come on now.

Implying that actually happened on a large scale.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2016, 07:06:13 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 07:09:38 PM by Virginia »

Implying that actually happened on a large scale.

What do you think the incessant appeals to 'states rights' and attacking welfare for those undeserving people meant? Was it a mass coordinated effort? No, as far as I know anyway. It does not have to be. It's just the same messaging used by Republicans for years, up and down the ticket.

Then you have Trump basically scapegoating every group he can think of for something. It's hard to even keep track at this point.
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