Presidential Ratings and Predictions - North Carolina
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  Presidential Ratings and Predictions - North Carolina		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Rate North Carolina and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 140

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Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - North Carolina  (Read 3135 times)
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #25 on: September 21, 2016, 12:02:57 AM »
Pure Tossup, possibly the closest state this year. Clinton by 1.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #26 on: September 21, 2016, 12:40:19 AM »
Lean D

HB2 indirectly helps Clinton by turning out younger liberals
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2016, 01:31:29 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on September 20, 2016, 03:54:39 PM
Lean D. This is a textbook state where a massive ground game advantage can bring you over the top. This state was going to be competitive regardless of Trump as well. PPP's poll tomorrow won't change my mind on that.

Clinton 50
Trump 47
Others 3

This is strange, but I feel oddly confident about NC, even if the margin is tight.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #28 on: September 21, 2016, 11:12:58 AM »
Toss-up. Barring unforeseen events it may be decided by less than 1%.
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Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #29 on: September 24, 2016, 04:53:31 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 07:10:19 PM by Spark498 »
Lean R.

Trump: 51%
Clinton: 48%

Toss-up

Clinton- 47%
Trump- 49%
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2016, 05:27:50 PM »
Tossup, Clinton 49-47, definitely one of the 3-5 closest states on Election Day.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #31 on: October 03, 2016, 06:45:33 PM »
Starting to think NC might even be lean D, would be surprised if Trump won it at this point, though I expect to be as close as 2012.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2016, 09:37:32 AM »
Lean D
Clinton 51-47-2
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: October 29, 2016, 04:22:29 PM »
Shifting from Lean R > Tossup (Clinton).

I might revise again once we see the numbers after "Souls to the Polls" weekend to Lean D, but for now am being cautious with NC.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #34 on: October 29, 2016, 04:27:48 PM »
Lean Dem.
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OneJ
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« Reply #35 on: October 29, 2016, 06:17:56 PM »
Lean D
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Hammy
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2016, 06:26:10 PM »
Unless there's a shift with the Comey thing, Clinton wins by a small margin.
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Xing
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2016, 07:29:45 PM »
Shifting this to Lean D, Clinton wins 50-47.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2016, 07:34:14 PM »
I wish the rules regarding Tossup/Lean/Likely/Safe were more clearly defined.

Personally I've been using Safe as +10, Likely as 5-10, Lean as 2.5-5, Tossup as plus or minus 2.5.

Did I miss something on the guessing rules, because it seems like many forum voters are using various standards to measure these races?

ElectionsGuy can you jump in and clarify what these voting means so we can all be on the same page as we make our final predictions?   Smiley
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2016, 07:47:01 PM »
Looks like a toss up to me...

+-1.5 for either candidate.
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