Elon NC Poll- Trump +1
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Author Topic: Elon NC Poll- Trump +1  (Read 2685 times)
F_S_USATN
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« on: September 20, 2016, 09:44:33 AM »

https://www.elon.edu/e/elon-poll/poll-archive/092016.html

Trump 44
Clinton 43
Johnson 6
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2016, 09:45:00 AM »

What do RV numbers look like?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2016, 09:47:15 AM »

Ross +1 in a sample that has Trump up by 1 (which I think is actually a pretty reasonable result). This Senate race is going down to the wire
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2016, 09:49:33 AM »

Ross +1 in a sample that has Trump up by 1 (which I think is actually a pretty reasonable result). This Senate race is going down to the wire

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/778008827958587392

The likely voter screen is trashed as too restrictive. You have to know where your voting precinct is to count.

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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2016, 09:52:02 AM »

Ross +1 in a sample that has Trump up by 1 (which I think is actually a pretty reasonable result). This Senate race is going down to the wire

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/778008827958587392

The likely voter screen is trashed as too restrictive. You have to know where your voting precinct is to count.



Whoaaa okay then. Yikes that's tight.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2016, 09:58:22 AM »

It also has 18-30 as 2.6% compared to 16% in 2012 exit polls. Race breakdowns are similar to 2012, Trump a tad weaker than Romney among Whites, Clinton stronger.

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2016, 10:03:02 AM »

Ross +1 in a sample that has Trump up by 1 (which I think is actually a pretty reasonable result). This Senate race is going down to the wire

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/778008827958587392

The likely voter screen is trashed as too restrictive. You have to know where your voting precinct is to count.



That's bizarre. I always vote and will always vote but I have no idea what my precinct is. I'll just google it the night before election day, like a normal person.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2016, 10:04:38 AM »

Its pure toss up at this point.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2016, 10:10:10 AM »

That's very good news for Ross.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2016, 10:36:09 AM »

This poll looks like junk even though the top line seems perfectly reasonable.
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oriass16
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2016, 11:43:28 AM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 11:46:59 AM by oriass16 »

Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2, it is a B+ pollster according to the site.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2016, 11:44:33 AM »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
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oriass16
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2016, 11:50:26 AM »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
He is the only pollster which got each state winner right back in 2012, so I would give him some credit.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2016, 12:51:29 PM »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
you democrats really are....odd
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2016, 01:02:38 PM »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
He is the only pollster which got each state winner right back in 2012, so I would give him some credit.

I can't remember, did Silver adjust/unskew other polls in 2012, or simply average them?
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Mallow
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2016, 01:04:35 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 01:09:55 PM by Mallow »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
you democrats really are....odd

Don't lump us all in the same boat. I don't understand all the hate for Nate here, except for "he doesn't show what I want him to show, so he's wrong". FiveThirtyEight is my go-to site for a big-picture depiction of where the race stands.
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Mallow
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2016, 01:05:30 PM »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
He is the only pollster which got each state winner right back in 2012, so I would give him some credit.

I can't remember, did Silver adjust/unskew other polls in 2012, or simply average them?

Pretty sure he took the polls' biases into account in 2012, too.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2016, 01:06:06 PM »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
you democrats really are....odd

Don't lump us all in the same boat. I don't understand all the hate for Nate here, except for "he doesn't show what I want him to show, so he's wrong". FiveThirtyEight is my go-to site for an unbiased picture of where the race stands.

I think his house effect adjustments are fine. I don't think he's gospel though. I also check Pollster, RCP and Pollyvote daily.
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Mallow
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2016, 01:07:57 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 01:10:05 PM by Mallow »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
you democrats really are....odd

Don't lump us all in the same boat. I don't understand all the hate for Nate here, except for "he doesn't show what I want him to show, so he's wrong". FiveThirtyEight is my go-to site for an unbiased picture of where the race stands.

I think his house effect adjustments are fine. I don't think he's gospel though. I also check Pollster, RCP and Pollyvote daily.

Oh I certainly agree. 538's a great summary site, but it's prone to errors and biases as any other site is. I also check out other sources.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2016, 01:13:08 PM »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
you democrats really are....odd

Don't lump us all in the same boat. I don't understand all the hate for Nate here, except for "he doesn't show what I want him to show, so he's wrong". FiveThirtyEight is my go-to site for an unbiased picture of where the race stands.

I think his house effect adjustments are fine. I don't think he's gospel though. I also check Pollster, RCP and Pollyvote daily.

Oh I certainly agree. 538's a great summary site, but it's prone to errors and biases as any other site is. I also check out other sources.

I think Nate does a fine job, though it's worth looking at other forecasters too. Pollster, RCP, Upshot, PEC and Pollyvote are all a good big picture resource.

I do like how often 538 updates, though the Nowcast is kind of silly
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2016, 01:15:29 PM »



Fivethirtyeight adjusted this poll to TRUMP+2
If we cared about discredited fraud Nate Silver's poll unskewing, we would go on 538.
you democrats really are....odd

Don't lump us all in the same boat. I don't understand all the hate for Nate here, except for "he doesn't show what I want him to show, so he's wrong". FiveThirtyEight is my go-to site for an unbiased picture of where the race stands.

I think his house effect adjustments are fine. I don't think he's gospel though. I also check Pollster, RCP and Pollyvote daily.

Oh I certainly agree. 538's a great summary site, but it's prone to errors and biases as any other site is. I also check out other sources.

I think Nate does a fine job, though it's worth looking at other forecasters too. Pollster, RCP, Upshot, PEC and Pollyvote are all a good big picture resource.

I do like how often 538 updates, though the Nowcast is kind of silly
It seems like the margins are mostly the same now.
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2016, 01:26:36 PM »

So McCrory's doing better than Trump, but Burr is doing worse? That seems quite counterintuitive.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2016, 02:55:43 PM »

Ross +1 in a sample that has Trump up by 1 (which I think is actually a pretty reasonable result). This Senate race is going down to the wire

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/778008827958587392

The likely voter screen is trashed as too restrictive. You have to know where your voting precinct is to count.



That's bizarre. I always vote and will always vote but I have no idea what my precinct is. I'll just google it the night before election day, like a normal person.

That "likely voter" requirement is ridiculous.
I have never, ever missed voting in any national, state, county or local election my entire life since I turned 18 years old.
But my precinct (voting) location changes quite often. So without looking at my sample ballot, which displays my location, I would not know this off the top of my head. And here in California, we haven't even received our sample ballot through the mail yet. So if this pollster were to ask me this question today, I would not know the answer.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2016, 05:37:23 AM »

It also has 18-30 as 2.6% compared to 16% in 2012 exit polls. Race breakdowns are similar to 2012, Trump a tad weaker than Romney among Whites, Clinton stronger.

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https://www.elon.edu/e/CmsFile/GetFile?FileID=638

1. This Poll oversampled democrats. Page 12
DEM 41.2% | REP 32.2% | Ind 26.6%
Even, Election 2012. It was DEM 39 REP 33 IND 28

Plus, Democratic Party NC Primary(Total Votes)
2008: Total 1.58 Million votes ->  2012: Total 1.12 Million
(Despite of population growth, almost 30% dropped Wink )
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NC.html
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/north-carolina

2. Details of This Poll (page 15)
https://www.elon.edu/e/CmsFile/GetFile?FileID=638
Democrats: Hillary 92% > TRUMP 8%
Republican: TRUMP 94% > Hillary 6%
Independent: TRUMP 65% > Hillary 35%

hahahahah independents!

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