FL - St Leo University: Clinton +5

[Wiz in Wis]

http://polls.saintleo.edu/new-saint-leo-survey-shows-presidential-race-between-clinton-and-trump-narrowing-in-florida-and-across-u-s/#utm_sguid=154855,3e0b2b2c-59d3-6fef-5af2-aa0c5cdd0957

Last time this poll was conducted, it found Clinton up 14. Take with appropriate salt.

[Dr. Arch]

Well, it matches Monmouth.

[Classic Conservative]

Clinton down 9 wow. Trump has to be leading if St. Leo is showing it close

[Wiz in Wis]

In the same poll, however, they have Rubio winning by 9... so, maybe not as off as it looks. Again, skepticism is warranted.

[Absolution9]

Seems like Florida is currently Clinton +1-2 based on these two polls being outliers in August and now trending toward Trump.  I would assume they are still a bit further toward Clinton than the actual reality.

[Ebsy]

Clinton down 9 wow. Trump has to be leading if St. Leo is showing it close

Or the previous poll was just, um, bad. As is this one.

[Wiz in Wis]

Clinton down 9 wow. Trump has to be leading if St. Leo is showing it close

Or the previous poll was just, um, bad. As is this one.

To be fair to Classic, they have been unusually pro-Clinton in every poll. However, I also don't think you can just add Trump +7 and call it a day. Add it to the average, and assume Trump has some stinkers in his column too.

[DrScholl]

Trump is collapsing.

[Classic Conservative]

Trump is collapsing.

But he gained 9 points here so....

[Gass3268]

Excellent, confirms Monmouth.

[DrScholl]

Trump is collapsing.

But he gained 9 points here so....

But he's still losing. He was supposedly invincible, yet he's in freefall in two polls today.

[Classic Conservative]

Trump is collapsing.

But he gained 9 points here so....

But he's still losing. He was supposedly invincible, yet he's in freefall in two polls today.

Who said he was invincible and how big is this new fall most of this is margin of error which happens. As we saw in NYT Poll's you can easily manipulate polls.

[NOVA Green]

They are only a C+ Pollster, so healthy doses of salt should apply.

That being said, the decrease numbers for Clinton are generally in line with national numbers from one of her peak polling periods back in mid August, and the numbers are roughly in line with the other two recent Florida polls

[Alcon]

Clinton down 9 wow. Trump has to be leading if St. Leo is showing it close

Or the previous poll was just, um, bad. As is this one.

To be fair to Classic, they have been unusually pro-Clinton in every poll. However, I also don't think you can just add Trump +7 and call it a day. Add it to the average, and assume Trump has some stinkers in his column too.

Eh, considering the extent of their past pro-Clinton skew, I actually don't think 7 points is a bad estimate of the "house effect" for this poll.

[ProudModerate2]

Excellent, confirms Monmouth.

Agree.
Could "an adjustment" for both polls make the advantage really about +2 or +3 ? .... maybe.
But even that is good news for Clinton in Florida ; an extremely crucial state for the orange-haired clown.
8-)

[Xing]

St. Leo is junk, though even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[Alcon]

Excellent, confirms Monmouth.

Agree.
Could "an adjustment" for both polls make the advantage really about +2 or +3 ? .... maybe.
But even that is good news for Clinton in Florida.
8-)

If you look back on St. Leo's past results, an adjustment to Clinton +2 or +3 would be very generous to Clinton.  They have found much more pro-Clinton results pretty consistently.  This isn't a good result for her.

[StatesPoll]

Previous St Leo Polls

FL: Saint Leo     August 14-18           Hillary 52%  TRUMP 38%
FL: Saint Leo    June 10-16           Hillary 46%  TRUMP 33%
FL: Saint Leo    March 13-17        Hillary 52%  TRUMP 34%
FL: Saint Leo   11/29-12/3/2015   Hillary 49%  TRUMP 41%

[NOVA Green]

St. Leo is junk, though even a broken clock is right twice a day.

You know, I was just thinking of posting a virtually identical sentence.

[ProudModerate2]

Excellent, confirms Monmouth.

Agree.
Could "an adjustment" for both polls make the advantage really about +2 or +3 ? .... maybe.
But even that is good news for Clinton in Florida ; an extremely crucial state for the orange-haired clown.
8-)

If you look back on St. Leo's past results, an adjustment to Clinton +2 or +3 would be very generous to Clinton.  They have found much more pro-Clinton results pretty consistently.  This isn't a good result for her.

Ok.
But the first comment (above) reads "Excellent, confirms Monmouth."
Meaning that if you also see Monmouth's poll which was released today, it likewise shows +5 for Clinton.
So my "adjustment analysis" is not only looking at St Leo University's number, but also considering Monmouth, which 538 rates as an A+ pollster.

[Maxwell]

Clinton down 9 wow. Trump has to be leading if St. Leo is showing it close

meh. St. Leo is an unreliable pollster all around, kind of like that one New Hampshire pollster (WBUR I think) that varies wildly every time they poll.

[Brittain33]

Clinton down 9 wow. Trump has to be leading if St. Leo is showing it close

Or the previous poll was just, um, bad. As is this one.

To be fair to Classic, they have been unusually pro-Clinton in every poll. However, I also don't think you can just add Trump +7 and call it a day. Add it to the average, and assume Trump has some stinkers in his column too.

Eh, considering the extent of their past pro-Clinton skew, I actually don't think 7 points is a bad estimate of the "house effect" for this poll.

Rubio +16, though?

[Seriously?]

Clinton down 9 wow. Trump has to be leading if St. Leo is showing it close

Don't worry, this St Leo junk will be matched with some Florida Atlantic junk showing a yugge Trump lead in the next few days.

These Florida university pollsters are terrible.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Neat poll!!!  Thank you, Leo!  You're swell!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Trump is collapsing.

Oh for f**k's sake, shut up you hack.