ND-DFM Research: Trump +11

[MT Treasurer]

43% Donald Trump (R)
32% Hillary Clinton (D)
8% Gary Johnson (L)
1% Jill Stein (G)

https://www.scribd.com/document/324685567/ND-Pres-DFM-Research-Sept-2016
https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/poll-trump-leads-clinton-north-dakota-neither-50-percent/

The poll was conducted September 12-17 and included 400 respondents. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

[NOVA Green]

#TrumpUnder45 in North Dakota

[StatesPoll]

low energy.....

[Xing]

If this is true, then SD is probably within single digits!!!!11!!!!!

Anyway, not surprising that Trump is underperforming Romney in some of these states, but he should still win them easily.

[Person Man]

Wouldnt this be TRUMP country?

[Ebsy]

Trump underperforming Romney by 9 points. Not good!

[Boston Bread]

I don't believe Clinton doing almost as well in ND/KS as in IA.

[dspNY]

Weird poll. They run even among voters over 40 but Trump somehow wins voters under 40. That should be reversed

[NOVA Green]

I don't believe Clinton doing almost as well in ND/KS as in IA.

Well, it looks like what is going on in some of the Great Plains states (ND, KS, and possibly similar areas in rural North Tex) is that a lot of Republicans don't see their state as competitive, and don't see the need to put a clothespin on the nose and vote Trump.

In "battleground states" like IA and OH, parts of SW MI these same type of Midwest smalltown/rural Republicans are making a different choice perhaps....

Also, ND has a large mainline Protestant population (Lutheran 35%) and very large Catholic population (30%) and not too many evangelical type voters compared to other MidWest states.... so that might play a bit of a factor as well.

Iowa also has a much larger blue-collar manufacturing sector where Trump's "Economic Protectionist" argument is probably making inroads into traditionally Dem voters in Eastern Iowa. Undecideds in the suburbs of Des Moines and Cedar Rapids will likely break Clinton towards the end stretch and determine which candidate wins that state.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Consistent with a moderate Clinton lead.  LUXURIOUS POLL!

[Fargobison]

Wouldnt this be TRUMP country?

Not really, he is a horrific fit for eastern ND.

Poll seems solid except for the whole voters under 40 being bigly for Trump, not sure what is going on there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wouldnt this be TRUMP country?

Not really, he is a horrific fit for eastern ND.

Poll seems solid except for the whole voters under 40 being bigly for Trump, not sure what is going on there.

Perhaps a bunch of young oil workers who have migrated in from Texas and Oklahoma?

[Miles]

Push your damn undecideds.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wouldnt this be TRUMP country?

Not really, he is a horrific fit for eastern ND.

Poll seems solid except for the whole voters under 40 being bigly for Trump, not sure what is going on there.

Perhaps a bunch of young oil workers who have migrated in from Texas and Oklahoma?

A lot of deeply red states have no or reverse age gaps (Kentucky might be the best example of a significant reverse age gap), and all indications are that the young vote will be so fractured in 2016 that there won't be that stark gap that we say in 2012.

[Lachi]

Holy crap, 16% undecided?!

[Fargobison]

Wouldnt this be TRUMP country?

Not really, he is a horrific fit for eastern ND.

Poll seems solid except for the whole voters under 40 being bigly for Trump, not sure what is going on there.

Perhaps a bunch of young oil workers who have migrated in from Texas and Oklahoma?

Not sure how many are left out there really with the whole bust. That said the oil bust in the west is a recipe ripe for Trumpism to flourish.

[NOVA Green]

Wouldnt this be TRUMP country?

Not really, he is a horrific fit for eastern ND.

Poll seems solid except for the whole voters under 40 being bigly for Trump, not sure what is going on there.

Perhaps a bunch of young oil workers who have migrated in from Texas and Oklahoma?

Not sure how many are left out there really with the whole bust. That said the oil bust in the west is a recipe ripe for Trumpism to flourish.

Not true... he is running on a platform of "seizing Iraqi oil" which in the event that these were even a plausible scenario, would further enhance the existing mass layoffs and bust in the "oil patch" regions of the country.

It is the complete opposite of his platform of "protecting American jobs".... he can't have it both way when it comes to petro producing regions....

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Odd demographic breakdowns Trump leads 18-39 by 25 points while only leading 65+ by 1 point.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this is true, South Dakota is definitely possible for Clinton. I accept my accolades for not having it as Safe R these last few months.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If this is true, South Dakota is definitely possible for Clinton. I accept my accolades for not having it as Safe R these last few months.

I'm the only one who thinks this here, but I've been fairly confident that South Dakota will vote to the right of North Dakota.

[SirMuxALot]

I'm gonna get tired typing the same thing over and over again the next few weeks...

It's an error to try an extrapolate ultra-safe state poll margins into a view of the overall race.  Romney won ND by 20%.  All except one poll showed him at +14 or less right up to election day.

Oregon in 2012 had three October polls showing Obama only +6 over Romney.  That would have argued for a big national swing against Obama (Obama won OR +16 over McCain) and would have suggested a Romney win nationally.

But Obama ended up winning Oregon +12 despite those polls.

Safe state polls just don't often line up perfectly with the actual outcome.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this is true, South Dakota is definitely possible for Clinton. I accept my accolades for not having it as Safe R these last few months.

I'm the only one who thinks this here, but I've been fairly confident that South Dakota will vote to the right of North Dakota.

Your predictions are junk. GA/AZ as Safe R? NM as only Lean D?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If this is true, South Dakota is definitely possible for Clinton. I accept my accolades for not having it as Safe R these last few months.

I'm the only one who thinks this here, but I've been fairly confident that South Dakota will vote to the right of North Dakota.

Your predictions are junk. GA/AZ as Safe R? NM as only Lean D?

Johnson makes NM hard to predict.  For what it's worth, Hillary's chance in GA is similar to Trump's in NM, and I think 538 is still underestimating Trump (he's a 60-70% favorite to win, I'd say).

[Xing]

If this is true, South Dakota is definitely possible for Clinton. I accept my accolades for not having it as Safe R these last few months.

I'm the only one who thinks this here, but I've been fairly confident that South Dakota will vote to the right of North Dakota.

Why? It's been quite consistently a bit to the left of North Dakota, and Hillary definitely seems stronger in South Dakota than North Dakota.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Holy crap, 16% undecided?!

Like the Mormons, the nice Scandanavians are having a hard time picking between the racist and Crooked Hillary.

Joke aside, I have no doubt that Trump will win North Dakota.