KY-GOV 2015: Why did Jack Conway lose to Matt Bevin?

[Suburbia]

When I heard the news that then-Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway lost to Republican outsider businessman Matt Bevin last year in 2015, I was somewhat shocked. Conway had the name ID, good Southern looks, moderate centrist Democrat, and a decent record, and experience. How did such a experienced Democrat lose to Bevin? Was it due to the rightward trend of Kentucky, or something else? Did he turn out Latino and Black voters?

[Maxwell]

Conway is as bad a candidate as Martha Coakley, but gets way less hate because he has a penis.

[Skye]

Conway is as bad a candidate as Martha Coakley, but gets way less hate because he has a penis.

Quit your bull, it's because he's a Democrat in now deep red Kentucky as opposed to being a Democrat in deep blue Masachussetts.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Three main reasons: the extremely low job approval of President Obama in Kentucky, its status as a Southern Bible Belt state, plus the perceived hostility of national Democrats toward coal mining.

To those who say racism, I will point out that much of that region started trending R before Obama, primarily because of social issues and coal.  (See the swing from 1996 to 2000 for president to see what I mean.)

When I heard the news that then-Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway lost to Republican outsider businessman Matt Bevin last year in 2015, I was somewhat shocked. Conway had the name ID, good Southern looks, moderate centrist Democrat, and a decent record, and experience. How did such a experienced Democrat lose to Bevin? Was it due to the rightward trend of Kentucky, or something else? Did he turn out Latino and Black voters?

A lot of Bevin's victory has to do with the fact that he WAS an outsider in a national climate that is hostile to experience and competence (see Donald Trump).

[Maxwell]

Conway is as bad a candidate as Martha Coakley, but gets way less hate because he has a penis.

Quit your bull, it's because he's a Democrat in now deep red Kentucky as opposed to being a Democrat in deep blue Masachussetts.

Conway ran with all the possible advantages he could have - winning statewide multiple times, very strong campaign infrastructure, running against already weak opponents (Bevin, Paul), and running in a state that is definitely willing to give Democrats a chance if you offer them (see: there are still statewide democrats, Beshear got re-elected by over 20 points). I suppose I can understand losing to Paul - Conway ran in a wave year, made an epically bad move last minute, and Paul isn't the worst politician ever. I can't understand losing to Bevin, who ran an exceptionally incompetent and bewildering campaign, in a year that wasn't especially bad for Democrats (I mean, Dems won a Governors spot in Louisiana that year for crying out loud), and losing so badly that Bevin carried with him a previously left for dead Republican for Auditor with him.

Coakley at least improved in her second rendezvous (as her loss to Baker is a little more understandable).

[Skye]

Conway is as bad a candidate as Martha Coakley, but gets way less hate because he has a penis.

Quit your bull, it's because he's a Democrat in now deep red Kentucky as opposed to being a Democrat in deep blue Masachussetts.

Conway ran with all the possible advantages he could have - winning statewide multiple times, very strong campaign infrastructure, running against already weak opponents (Bevin, Paul), and running in a state that is definitely willing to give Democrats a chance if you offer them (see: there are still statewide democrats, Beshear got re-elected by over 20 points). I suppose I can understand losing to Paul - Conway ran in a wave year, made an epically bad move last minute, and Paul isn't the worst politician ever. I can't understand losing to Bevin, who ran an exceptionally incompetent and bewildering campaign, in a year that wasn't especially bad for Democrats (I mean, Dems won a Governors spot in Louisiana that year for crying out loud), and losing so badly that Bevin carried with him a previously left for dead Republican for Auditor with him.

Coakley at least improved in her second rendezvous (as her loss to Baker is a little more understandable).

Louisiana was a special case, considering how disliked the scandal-ridden Vitter was. Bevin was just like a mini-Trump. I think you underestimate how violent the R trend has been in Kentucky, especially in the coal counties.

[Kingpoleon]

Conway never brought in surrogates like Ben Chandler and Steve Breshesr: broadly popular people from the state. Even Evan Bayh, Earl Ray Tomblin, and Joe Manchin may have helped in northern and eastern Kentucky, respectively.

[Maxwell]

Conway never brought in surrogates like Ben Chandler and Steve Breshesr: broadly popular people from the state. Even Evan Bayh, Earl Ray Tomblin, and Joe Manchin may have helped in northern and eastern Kentucky, respectively.

uh Ben Chandler lost re-election in a Presidential year to a potentially worse candidate.

[Xing]

Because Conway had a (D) next to his name. Kim Jong Un (R) would have beaten Jesus Christ (D) in Kentucky.

[Miles]

Conway came across as arrogant in the debates, IMO, and awkward in his own ads.

[Maxwell]

Because Conway had a (D) next to his name. Kim Jong Un (R) would have beaten Jesus Christ (D) in Kentucky.

two democrats won that year.

[Heisenberg]

Because Conway had a (D) next to his name. Kim Jong Un (R) would have beaten Jesus Christ (D) in Kentucky.

two democrats won that year.

Grimes was a pretty popular incumbent whose opponent was not serious (IIRC) and Andy Beshear's last name narrowly pulled him to victory. Andy Smith (D) would have lost.

[Mr.Phips]

Conway never brought in surrogates like Ben Chandler and Steve Breshesr: broadly popular people from the state. Even Evan Bayh, Earl Ray Tomblin, and Joe Manchin may have helped in northern and eastern Kentucky, respectively.

uh Ben Chandler lost re-election in a Presidential year to a potentially worse candidate.

And in a district redrawn to help him to boot.

[MasterJedi]

Incredibly low turnout and social issues. There was an article where a lot of poor people were terrified of losing their benefits and didn't know what they would do but they voted for Bevin because of social issues.

[Enduro]

Matt Bevin got more votes.

[Kingpoleon]

Conway never brought in surrogates like Ben Chandler and Steve Breshesr: broadly popular people from the state. Even Evan Bayh, Earl Ray Tomblin, and Joe Manchin may have helped in northern and eastern Kentucky, respectively.

uh Ben Chandler lost re-election in a Presidential year to a potentially worse candidate.

And in a district redrawn to help him to boot.

Chandler lost by about 3% in a R+9 seat. That's fairly impressive.

[DINGO Joe]

Because Conway was one stiff mofo. 

[ReaganLimbaugh]

He was too liberal, Kentucky isn't Boston, Chicago or San Francisco.

[BuckeyeNut]

Kim Davis. Conway was looking good for much of the summer and then the gay marriage sh**t show nationalized the campaign.

[Breton Racer]

He lost because voter turnout was historically low.

[Cynthia]

Because Conway had a (D) next to his name. Kim Jong Un (R) would have beaten Jesus Christ (D) in Kentucky.

Alison Grimes won though.

[PAK Man]

Because Conway had a (D) next to his name. Kim Jong Un (R) would have beaten Jesus Christ (D) in Kentucky.

Alison Grimes won though.

As did Andy Beshear (in an open-seat race) and Adam Edelen just barely lost reelection. And Conway performed worst out of all of them. That tells me there could have been Bevin/Beshear/Grimes/Edelen voters.

That's why I don't really think the Democratic brand is what damaged Conway, since Grimes had run for federal office and lost too. I think it was just the fact he was a bad candidate.

[IceSpear]

Because it's Kentucky.

[IceSpear]

Because Conway had a (D) next to his name. Kim Jong Un (R) would have beaten Jesus Christ (D) in Kentucky.

two democrats won that year.

A Republican won the SoS office in Washington state. I suppose that means any Republican who loses in that state can only blame themselves and their campaign, and not the fact that Washington is a solid D state?