UT-04 Dan Jones Love +19

[jamestroll]

http://www.sltrib.com/news/4377483-155/new-tribune-hinckley-poll-rep-mia-love

Shocking me to say the least. Owens does have a path to victory, but I am almost giving my hopes up.

Yea, you ask me which Utah congressman I like.. the only one I kind of approve of is Mia Love. The others are crap.

But this is the one District Democrats may win. Perhaps she can run for Senate in 2 years, and hopefully an open seat could be easier for a Democrat.

I must say her office is very responsive to correspondence.

Looks like the only big victory Democrats may have this year is Salt Lake County Mayor.

Ben McAdams is probably the only Democrat who could win statewide, or honestly, UT-04 in an open seat.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, this race was fun while it lasted.

[jamestroll]

I know it is controversial, but from a communities of interest perspective, Salt Lake County should have largely been its own district.

[jamestroll]

This race was never going to be competitive.

I do not think she will win by 19 points either.

[Nyvin]

I know it is controversial, but from a communities of interest perspective, Salt Lake County should have largely been its own district.

The current UT-4 cannot be called a community of interest, that's for sure.

You honestly could draw a much better map statewide with a district on the northern half of Salt Lake County anyway.

Ben McAdams is probably the only Democrat who could win statewide, or honestly, UT-04 in an open seat.

You don't think Jim Matheson can run for Gov or Senate at some point?   I thought that's what he was interested in originally.

[jamestroll]

I know it is controversial, but from a communities of interest perspective, Salt Lake County should have largely been its own district.

The current UT-4 cannot be called a community of interest, that's for sure.

You honestly could draw a much better map statewide with a district on the northern half of Salt Lake County anyway.

Ben McAdams is probably the only Democrat who could win statewide, or honestly, UT-04 in an open seat.

You don't think Jim Matheson can run for Gov or Senate at some point?   I thought that's what he was interested in originally.

Only if Trump wins, or if Hillary is not too unpopular and Matheson can localize the race. Matheson could win an open Senate seat in 2018, or maybe governor in 2020. He still has  a good name for himself. However, you would not believe how many Republicans that I have met who said, "I do not mind Matheson, but he does vote party line too much."

But that would be less of an issue in the governors race.

**Disclaimer: I do not believe Matheson voted the Democratic party line too much.

[Young Conservative]

This race was never going to be competitive.

[Zioneer]

Depressing. If Owens loses, especially by that margin, he's not going to be a candidate for anything anymore, and we're down to two potential statewide candidates (Matheson and Ben McAdams), and Matheson looks less and less likely to run for anything.

[jamestroll]

Depressing. If Owens loses, especially by that margin, he's not going to be a candidate for anything anymore, and we're down to two potential statewide candidates (Matheson and Ben McAdams), and Matheson looks less and less likely to run for anything.

What are your feelings on this race?  Should I just give up? I always thought Owens should have just ran for a State Senate district in Salt Lake County, which he could win.

I think if Mia Love moves on to a higher office, an open UT-04 could be quite competitive for Ben McAdams. McAdams is literally the only Democrat with a chance statewide. I do not know if Matheson is willing to get back into politics.

[Zioneer]

Depressing. If Owens loses, especially by that margin, he's not going to be a candidate for anything anymore, and we're down to two potential statewide candidates (Matheson and Ben McAdams), and Matheson looks less and less likely to run for anything.

What are your feelings on this race?  Should I just give up? I always thought Owens should have just ran for a State Senate district in Salt Lake County, which he could win.

I think if Mia Love moves on to a higher office, an open UT-04 could be quite competitive for Ben McAdams. McAdams is literally the only Democrat with a chance statewide. I do not know if Matheson is willing to get back into politics.

I think we should still try our best; Owens was also polling badly in the early days of 2014, so perhaps he could still pull a win/close loss out of nowhere again. Try to win, but expect the worst.

I do think we should have someone in the wings if Love becomes a Senator or something, yeah. Maybe McAdams, but I'm convinced his best bet is Governor. I do think we should try to have Owens run for something else even if he loses UT-04 for a second time, but I think it's doubtful he'll want to.

We need to build up someone new, someone who isn't Matheson, Owens, or McAdams.... I remember seeing a poll for possible candidates for UT-04 which included SLCO District Attorney Sim Gill. He'd be an intriguing choice for that or AG.

Dunno who else.

[Zioneer]

One other thing; while I don't blame the Utah Democratic Party leaders for our current dire straits, I do feel that they should not be rewarded for losing. Especially if we end up winning nothing more than what we currently have. Thus, if we lose UT-04 again, and end up only winning one or zero state house seats, but keep Salt Lake County Mayor, and everything else we currently have, I feel we should fire Peter Corroon as Utah Democratic Chair, as well as the other party officials. Possibly fire the SLCO Democratic party officials as well, since this county SHOULD BE where we can make gains.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So Zioneer, what exactly about Mia Love do you like more about than the other bland white males in the Utah delegation? Is it her charisma? Her personality (which seems very nice)? Is she more moderate than given credit for? I genuinely don't know much about Mia Love other than the fact that I should probably be paying more attention to her?

[jamestroll]

So Zioneer, what exactly about Mia Love do you like more about than the other bland white males in the Utah delegation? Is it her charisma? Her personality (which seems very nice)? Is she more moderate than given credit for? I genuinely don't know much about Mia Love other than the fact that I should probably be paying more attention to her?

You may have confused Zioneer and myself. Basically, Mia Love is much friendlier and personable in comparison to the other representatives from Utah. Plus, she is not particularly far right, and has good relationships with many Democrats in Congress. Like I said, if she goes for Senate in 2018, I would be happy. An open UT-04 could be good for Ben McAdams to win. Love v Matheson in Utah for Senate would be quite a contest also! But I doubt Matheson will ever go into politics again.

[jamestroll]

One other thing; while I don't blame the Utah Democratic Party leaders for our current dire straits, I do feel that they should not be rewarded for losing. Especially if we end up winning nothing more than what we currently have. Thus, if we lose UT-04 again, and end up only winning one or zero state house seats, but keep Salt Lake County Mayor, and everything else we currently have, I feel we should fire Peter Corroon as Utah Democratic Chair, as well as the other party officials. Possibly fire the SLCO Democratic party officials as well, since this county SHOULD BE where we can make gains.

Yes I completely agree. Utah Democrats need to build a bench in Salt Lake County, especially try to win more high profile races in the Southern half of the county. That could possibly get us statewide candidates who could appeal statewide. A Democrat elected in West Jordan would be more likely to win over voters statewide than a Democrat from South Salt Lake City for instance. Weber County may be a place we could make gains.

If we do not do well this election, it is time to fire all Democratic Party officials and start over!

[Zioneer]

So Zioneer, what exactly about Mia Love do you like more about than the other bland white males in the Utah delegation? Is it her charisma? Her personality (which seems very nice)? Is she more moderate than given credit for? I genuinely don't know much about Mia Love other than the fact that I should probably be paying more attention to her?

I actually don't like Mia Love, I see her as a mere foot soldier for the worst of the Republicans, and I don't see her as moderate at all. She seems to be a nice person personality-wise, and honestly I like the fact that Utah of all places elected a woman who is an ethnic minority (first Haitian-American, specifically), but I really prefer Doug Owens as a moderate Democrat who also seems nice and who fits the district well (not that Mia doesn't "fit" the district, I just think that a moderate Democrat fits better).

Considering that either Mia Love or Jason Chaffetz will probably be the next Senator from Utah when Orrin Hatch retires or kicks the bucket, you may want to pay attention to both.

[Zioneer]

One other thing; while I don't blame the Utah Democratic Party leaders for our current dire straits, I do feel that they should not be rewarded for losing. Especially if we end up winning nothing more than what we currently have. Thus, if we lose UT-04 again, and end up only winning one or zero state house seats, but keep Salt Lake County Mayor, and everything else we currently have, I feel we should fire Peter Corroon as Utah Democratic Chair, as well as the other party officials. Possibly fire the SLCO Democratic party officials as well, since this county SHOULD BE where we can make gains.

Yes I completely agree. Utah Democrats need to build a bench in Salt Lake County, especially try to win more high profile races in the Southern half of the county. That could possibly get us statewide candidates who could appeal statewide. A Democrat elected in West Jordan would be more likely to win over voters statewide than a Democrat from South Salt Lake City for instance. Weber County may be a place we could make gains.

If we do not do well this election, it is time to fire all Democratic Party officials and start over!

Definitely; the southern half of Salt Lake County was the only place where Ben McAdams didn't do well, and we need to build a bench there, with state legislative candidates, mayors, and county council members. I'm feeling optimistic about the at-large county council seat with our candidate Catherine Kanter, who is out-raising incumbent Richard Snelgrove 2:1 or more. We generally win seats when we out-raise the Republican.

I also think we need to rebuild our bench in West Valley City, which is ethnically diverse (and therefore open to Democrats) without being Salt Lake City with its liberal reputation. I'm feeling very confident about Karen Kwan running in HD-34, an open state house seat in the heart of West Valley.

I'm also confident about HD-44 in Murray, where Democrat Christine Passey is facing off in a rematch against first-termer Bruce Cutler, who won by only about 50 votes in 2014. I'm confident we won't lose any seats this time, and if we do, we REALLY need to fire Corroon.

Weber County would be a place where we should make gains, but we messed up again this year, and ran a sick candidate, Jesse Garcia. Garcia had to drop out and we tried to replace him with the candidate from 2014, but here's the problem; he dropped out too late and his name remains on the ballot, despite Garcia being too ill to campaign. The worst part is that Garcia was a former four-term Ogden city councilman, and would have been the absolute best candidate for the seat. But now we have someone on the ballot who can't campaign.

Even worse, our state AG candidate Jon Harper also had to drop out for health reasons as well, but since it's too late to formally drop out, he too remains on the ballot despite not campaigning. Unlike Garcia, Harper had no chance of winning, but it still stings as a huge mistake.

I really think that for recruiting failures and failure to capitalize on the Trumpocalypse, Corroon should be booted out. He was a great Salt Lake County Mayor, but he's been lackluster as a state Democratic chairman. I don't regret voting for him to be chair to keep the odious Richard Davis out, but I do think he should be replaced.