What if the country becomes so polarized...
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  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  What if the country becomes so polarized...
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Author Topic: What if the country becomes so polarized...  (Read 484 times)
AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 21, 2016, 07:25:08 PM »
« edited: September 21, 2016, 08:42:19 PM by Chrome »

...that there are no more battleground states? What if state that votes closest to the national average is still D+10 or R+10?  A candidate could win the popular vote by double digits and still lose the election.

This is an example of the scenario if it happens in the future.



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Goldwater
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 07:39:04 PM »

I have to wonder what would make LA vote so differently from MS and AL, SC so differently from NC and GA, ME from NH, etc.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2016, 07:58:50 PM »

I have to wonder what would make LA vote so differently from MS and AL, SC so differently from NC and GA, ME from NH, etc.

This, and I'm surprised only 16 states are >60% in shading when all fifty are won with at least 55%.
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2016, 08:20:23 PM »

I have to wonder what would make LA vote so differently from MS and AL, SC so differently from NC and GA, ME from NH, etc.

This, and I'm surprised only 16 states are >60% in shading when all fifty are won with at least 55%.

Take a closer look. California, West Virginia, and New York are all  >70%. The rest are >60%.
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AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,287
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2016, 08:23:54 PM »

I have to wonder what would make LA vote so differently from MS and AL, SC so differently from NC and GA, ME from NH, etc.

Mississippi is trending Democratic due to demographic changes. I am not sure where Louisiana will be in the future; it swung Republican in 2008 and Democratic in 2012, both against the national swing. Louisiana could easily have 60% of its vote go to a Republican in an election if it does not trend much. As for South Carolina, whites are actually growing in population faster than non-whites in the state.

Of course, this is still an unrealistic map overall with every state being at least >60%.
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