CO - Colorado Mesa Univ: Clinton +9
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 08:51:42 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CO - Colorado Mesa Univ: Clinton +9		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: CO - Colorado Mesa Univ: Clinton +9  (Read 2811 times)
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 22, 2016, 12:47:22 AM »
540 LV, 9/14-9/18:

Clinton: 44
Trump: 35

Bennett: 45
Glenn: 32

gjsentinel.com/news/articles/university-jumps-into-politics
Logged
Southern Delegate matthew27
matthew27
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,668
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 12:48:41 AM »
Now this is what I want to see!
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2016, 12:49:49 AM »
hmm, doesn't look like they polled in German, junk poll.
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,077


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2016, 12:56:43 AM »
Results look like what I would expect but I don't know how much I would trust a University conducting their first ever poll.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2016, 01:25:38 AM »
Quote from: Representative dfwlibertylover on September 22, 2016, 12:49:49 AM
hmm, doesn't look like they polled in German, junk poll.

Interviewing in Spanish totally doesn't make a difference, I agree. I bet that if they didn't poll any black voters in Cleveland, OH polls would still be just as reliable, and that wouldn't mess with the numbers at all.

Anyway, in case Emerson (lol) temporarily cast any doubt on the situation, we can go back to concluding that Trump isn't going to win Colorado.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2016, 01:49:34 AM »
Beautiful poll! A YUGE thank you to the Freedom Fighters @ CMU. Just the best people.
Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2016, 01:52:30 AM »
Quote from: Ozymandias on September 22, 2016, 12:47:22 AM
540 LV, 9/14-9/18:

Clinton: 44
Trump: 35

Bennett: 45
Glenn: 32

gjsentinel.com/news/articles/university-jumps-into-politics



1. No cross-tab
2. RV (Not LV)
3. Not 4-way Poll
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2016, 02:14:24 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2016, 02:19:48 AM by Ozymandias »

The article text may say "registered voters", but if you look at the figure caption it says "540 likely Colorado registered voters"
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2016, 02:40:32 AM »
Not sure I am sold on the methodology.
Logged
Donnie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2016, 02:50:19 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2016, 03:19:12 AM by Donnie »
In seems to me that Trump should go all-in after MI and PA insted of NH and CO.
CO demographics are very bad for him.
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,975


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2016, 04:19:44 AM »
Beautiful!  I had thought Colorado was lost after the Mark Udall loss in 2014--signifying a return to the right.  But it looks like Udall lost because he was a lousy candidate.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2016, 04:26:10 AM »
VA, CO, Pa and NH are still holding for Clinton
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2016, 05:37:34 AM »
FREIWALL. Ty CO.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,874
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2016, 05:57:34 AM »
This looks right if Clinton is +4 nationally and college educated whites are cutting against trump
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,076
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2016, 06:12:31 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2016, 06:14:27 AM by Torie »
Well I guess that sbane was most perspicacious when he opined that Trump's most plausible path to victory is through Wisconsin. The rest of the doors seem quite securely locked. Trump needs's TJ's and MasterJedi's vote! And he isn't going to get them. Smiley
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2016, 08:47:57 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2016, 08:52:13 AM by Seriously? »
The internals of this thing are a crap show.

They broke out Hispanics separately (9%).  For comparison purposes to the exits, you can't tell if it's Hispanic non-white or Hispanic-black or just plain Hispanic (self-identified) . (89/11 is the white/non-white).

It's basically a D+13 or D+15 sample amongst self-identifieds, depending on what you do with the slight leans.

I think they broke out the LV separate from the RV in the questionnaire, but they really don't state the what the numbers in the questionnaire are. The LV numbers are in the release, but not in the toplines.

The proper Numbers are 540 RV, 350 LV

I think these are the RV numbers:
Clinton 42
Trump 31
Some Other Candidate 18
Don't Know 10

Clinton 36
Trump 30
Johnson 16
Stein 5
Don't Know 14

Even with Franklin & Marshall's help, very much a first poll for a university.

Link: http://coloradomesa.edu/social-research-center/documents/CMU-RMPBS-Poll_FINAL%209-22-16.pdf
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2016, 08:52:44 AM »
They're untested and I'm not investing in this one.

Although I'm confident that Clinton is ahead in CO.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,714
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2016, 08:58:36 AM »
But but… the sample size is too small. Can’t be true.

Actually not surprising. The fake billionaire is one of the worst fits for CO.
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2016, 09:32:15 AM »
SWEET SASSY MOLLASEY!!!  TERRIBLE NEWS FOR TRUMPY!
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2016, 04:11:40 PM »
Why on Earth is F&M helping to poll CO? I don't recall them doing much outside of PA before, and they're only okay at that, really.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,450
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2016, 05:38:58 PM »
Another crap Uni Poll and it doesn't Jive with the Q poll from today, which has already been dissected.

Reality is probably somewhere closer to the middle and CO is C +3-5.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2016, 05:56:24 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on September 22, 2016, 05:38:58 PM
Another crap Uni Poll and it doesn't Jive with the Q poll from today, which has already been dissected.

Reality is probably somewhere closer to the middle and CO is C +3-5.

Exactly, why not take the average?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,169
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2016, 09:41:50 PM »
Outlier at best, junk poll at worst.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 13 queries.