Is the Labour Party in worse shape then the Republican party for the future

[OSR stands with Israel]

hard to say

[diptheriadan]

Yes, a massive yes.

The G.O.P's actually in pretty good shape. They control the House. They're going to be within striking distance of the Senate for the next 20 years. Really, it's just the Presidency that they're going to lose.

Labour is going in the opposite direction from where they should. They going leftward when they need to go to the center. There's only three ways for them to win a general again. Form a coalition government with the SNP, gain back seats in Scotland, or gain back seats in England. All of these are incredibly unlikely. If they join with SNP, Scotland will be gone by the the next general, ruling out two of their options. The only option they have left is to win back seats in England, which won't happen unless a Blairite comes into power.

[Phony Moderate]

The only option they have left is to win back seats in England, which won't happen unless a Blairite comes into power.

Which is a bit like saying that the Republicans can only win the presidency again if they nominate Susan Collins. The thing is that those calling themselves Blairites nowadays are actually well to the right of where Blair was during his leadership.

Also most Blairites are strongly pro-EU and Leave got nearly 70% in Nuneaton.

[parochial boy]

It's too easy to write off Labour's travails as the result of them being "too left".

As much as anything, Corbyn appears to be a completely ineffectual leader - his EU campaign was (by design or personal deficiency) a joke, his political stunts all backfire and he seems to have no desire to speak to anyone who isnt already a loyal supported.

Add in the hysterics of the PLP and the whole party looks like a total mess to most Brits.

These things count for a lot more than "OMG Corbyn is a communist".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

^^^

Good post. It isn't as though Corbyn has made any significant policy changes from the Miliband years; it is presentation that differs.

Of course the real issue isn't whether Labour is led from Left or Right or wherever, but whether it is able to convince people that it stands for good government and better living standards.

[DC Al Fine]

The only option they have left is to win back seats in England, which won't happen unless a Blairite comes into power.

Which is a bit like saying that the Republicans can only win the presidency again if they nominate Susan Collins. The thing is that those calling themselves Blairites nowadays are actually well to the right of where Blair was during his leadership.

Also most Blairites are strongly pro-EU and Leave got nearly 70% in Nuneaton.

Agreed. "ABC Party must moderate to win" is almost as bad analysis as "ABC party would have won if they were true _____'s". Politics isn't a bunch of parties jostling for territory on a one dimensional spectrum. If that were true, Bob Stanfield would have spent twenty years as Prime Minister of Canada.

Success, as Sibboleth noted, means selling the voters on your party/policies/leader. It might involve moderating, but it could just as easily focus on rebranding or wedge issues.

[Antonio the Sixth]

^^^

Good post. It isn't as though Corbyn has made any significant policy changes from the Miliband years; it is presentation that differs.

Of course the real issue isn't whether Labour is led from Left or Right or wherever, but whether it is able to convince people that it stands for good government and better living standards.

This exactly.

I wouldn't mind a politician who was just as left-wing as Corbyn, if he actually gave any indication that he gives two sh*ts about whether the party he leads wins or loses.

[Blair]

Clive Lewis- the Shadow Defence Secretary (who punched a wall) this week admitted that Labour need to unite around a strong Internationalist defense program of renewing Trident, 2% spending etc to allow it unite around a left wing economic package. This pretty much sums up my views.

As I've said Labour seem to be like the Democrats in the 1970s (Blair/Brown as LBJ, David Miliband as Muskie, Corbyn as Mcgovern) in the sense that we did a lot of good in government but ruined it with an unpopular war and then reformed our party structures only for a complete outsider to get in.

As with all historical comparisons it's vague and sketchy but eh

[Slow Learner]

No. Corbyn shouldn't be underestimated and it's almost impossible to be in worse shape than the Republican Party.

Those both Houses of Congress and numerous State Legislatures must put it in such a perilous position.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Absolutely. Trump doesn't seem to have coattails, in that most alt-right candidates for statewide office have failed. Should Trump lose, the Republican brand can distance themselves from him. Should he win, Ryan and co. can cast themselves as the principled opposition.

Labour has firmly decided to plant themselves behind Corbyn, and will likely lose most of their moderate and Jewish voters in the process. Labour could have been talking about the economic consequences of Tory rule and Brexit, instead they're talking about whether the Joos ran the slave trade.

[Helsinkian]

If Trump's legacy is Hispanic voters going 80-20 for the Dems in the future as well, then the GOP is definitely in a worse shape than Labour.

[Slow Learner]

If Trump's legacy is Hispanic voters going 80-20 for the Dems in the future as well, then the GOP is definitely in a worse shape than Labour.

Even in their worst case scenario, the Republicans will still hold on to 150+ electoral votes, along with a hefty presence in both houses of congress.

[adma]

Absolutely. Trump doesn't seem to have coattails, in that most alt-right candidates for statewide office have failed. Should Trump lose, the Republican brand can distance themselves from him. Should he win, Ryan and co. can cast themselves as the principled opposition.

I'd wonder about the post-Trump likelihood of the alt-right to set up its own breakaway party.

[Wolves]

Yes.

GOP right now is going through a reshape, if DJT wins, we can expect a total switch to the GOP being considered the workers party (considering the amount of white, blue collar working class voting for him) which would be a complete switch up and actually strengthen the party in some areas if DJT's first term goes well.

GOP, if DJT loses, is still in fantastic shape, controls the senate, controls the house, HRC can't do a single thing at all as long as the congress is Republican controlled. It's the democrats that are in a bad shape.

[vileplume]

I would say yes. The Labour party is being torn apart by the complete divergence in the views of its progressive, urban, metropolitan voters and its white working class ones whose mutual support is critical for delivering a Labour government. Unlike with the Democrats in the USA there are simply not enough ethnic minorities to replace the loss of the WWC and the Tories are nowhere near as toxic with ethnic minority voters as the GOP is especially with wealthy ones, in fact recent trends have shown certain ethnic minorities are becoming much more Tory of late anyway. Labour especially with the path they have just embarked on seems hell bent on reducing their base to public sector workers, far left activist types, students and trendy metropolitan liberals which is nowhere enough to win an election especially seen as these types of voters are packed into a comparatively small number of constituencies.

Quite frankly Labour is on borrowed time in places like the Welsh Valleys and the WWC small towns of the north; their organisation has been completely hollowed out due to the collapse of organised labour, years of being neglected and taken for granted by the party and Labour politicians being completely out of touch on social and cultural issues with the voters in these kind of places. It is really another Scotland waiting to happen . People in these places typically vote Labour as they 'just do', 'my granddaddy did' or 'they aren't the Tories'. This is hardly sustainable and Labour is in serious danger of being swept away in a populist tide (albeit by something with a much more working class leadership and far less links to the Tories than UKIP).

[vileplume]

As for the GOP, given the two party nature of American politics when the Democrats inevitably fall out favour with the public the GOP will return to a position of strength as unlikely as it seems at this point of time. Given the more multi-party nature of British politics there are a multitude of non-Tory alternatives other than Labour for the public to turn to when the Tories come a cropper whenever that is. This is why the existential crisis faced by the Labour Party (outlined in my previous post) is so much more of a terminal threat than the one faced by the GOP.