Quinnipiac CO Clinton +2 GA Trump +7 IA Trump +6 VA Clinton +6

[Pandaguineapig]

Virginia has far too many government workers and dependents to be competitive during a presidential year, the Colorado poll seems in line with what other polls have been showing

[Gass3268]

Colorado only 9% Hispanic in the Q poll which understates Clinton's real position there by about 4 points...

I hate to be the person to ask, but does Quinnipiac have a Spanish option?

[Fusionmunster]

Colorado only 9% Hispanic in the Q poll which understates Clinton's real position there by about 4 points...

Mhm.

You dont always have to be such a wet blanket you know.

[Lief 🗽]

Quinnipiac always sucks in Colorado. Iowa numbers are obviously bad for Clinton though.

[Pandaguineapig]

Surprised how small the gender gap is in Colorado, Hillary needs to get Mark Uterus on the campaign trail asap to expose how Trump, with the help of senator Gardener, is planning to take away all of our condoms

[Saruman]

Quinnipiac always sucks in Colorado. Iowa numbers are obviously bad for Clinton though.

Their final poll in CO nailed Gardner's margin of victory.

[NOVA Green]

These polls do not appear to be consistent with a Clinton +5 national number (NBC/WSJ poll), so unless we see more national poll numbers of a similar spread or state numbers that match, that poll does appear to overstate Clinton's numbers.

VA looks believable.... Clinton has maintained her 45% and Trump has consolidated his base over the past month, with potential further room to grow, but angry NOVA women will keep the safe state.

GA-- Looks to be a couple points friendly to Trump on the margins, and Clinton's support among white voters seems a bit low (16%) and not at all consistent with other recent Georgia polls. Still, GA is moving rapidly out of reach for Team Clinton, unless she can get the Millennials on board.

IA-- Seems reasonable enough. however there a huge number of 3rd party and undecided/persuadable numbers, so although is looking increasingly out of reach for Clinton, shifts in national numbers and GOTV could make that change.

CO--- I'm having some difficulties viewing this as plausible because of national polling numbers, statewide demographics, and underestimation of Latino voters. However, this poll does indicate that Trump has consolidated his support among evangelical Christian and national security Republicans in places like Colorado Springs, Western Colorado, etc... The key swing voting block in Colorado is generally in the suburbs of Denver and places like Fort Collins and Larimer, and it does seem that Trump is performing better than expected in these areas. For Clinton, the major challenge is to not just hold even, but to actually expand her base of support with Millennials and Bernie hold-out types, and this is a major reason as to why her numbers haven't increased over the past month in the Q poll.

Clinton needs to keep an eye on Colorado, since this and Wisconsin are the two most likely cracks in the 272 "Firewall".

[Maxwell]

Quinnipiac is bad at polling Colorado. That's just what it is.

Also lol at Iowa being only one point less Republican than GEORGIA. I mean, I'm aware this has been the norm this cycle but I still can't wrap my head around it.

[Fusionmunster]

These polls do not appear to be consistent with a Clinton +5 national number (NBC/WSJ poll), so unless we see more national poll numbers of a similar spread or state numbers that match, that poll does appear to overstate Clinton's numbers.

VA looks believable.... Clinton has maintained her 45% and Trump has consolidated his base over the past month, with potential further room to grow, but angry NOVA women will keep the safe state.

GA-- Looks to be a couple points friendly to Trump on the margins, and Clinton's support among white voters seems a bit low (16%) and not at all consistent with other recent Georgia polls. Still, GA is moving rapidly out of reach for Team Clinton, unless she can get the Millennials on board.

IA-- Seems reasonable enough. however there a huge number of 3rd party and undecided/persuadable numbers, so although is looking increasingly out of reach for Clinton, shifts in national numbers and GOTV could make that change.

CO--- I'm having some difficulties viewing this as plausible because of national polling numbers, statewide demographics, and underestimation of Latino voters. However, this poll does indicate that Trump has consolidated his support among evangelical Christian and national security Republicans in places like Colorado Springs, Western Colorado, etc... The key swing voting block in Colorado is generally in the suburbs of Denver and places like Fort Collins and Larimer, and it does seem that Trump is performing better than expected in these areas. For Clinton, the major challenge is to not just hold even, but to actually expand her base of support with Millennials and Bernie hold-out types, and this is a major reason as to why her numbers haven't increased over the past month in the Q poll.

Clinton needs to keep an eye on Colorado, since this and Wisconsin are the two most likely cracks in the 272 "Firewall".

I think we're gonna see a poll dump from Monmouth soon, which will show Clinton recovering and backing up the +5 margin.

[Eraserhead]

Iowa is really something.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Quinnipiac is bad at polling Colorado. That's just what it is.

Also lol at Iowa being only one point less Republican than GEORGIA. I mean, I'm aware this has been the norm this cycle but I still can't wrap my head around it.

This election is more of a racial election between uneducated whites and minorities(with a large percentage of educated whites). It doesn't surprise me that Iowa and Ohio are going for Trump while Ga, Florida, NC, and even texas are leaning Clinton because of their hispanic populations. I expect Wi and Michigan to be closer this year for the same reason.

[StatesPoll]

Colorado only 9% Hispanic in the Q poll which understates Clinton's real position there by about 4 points...

At this Time Q-poll(Colorado). White 82% | non-white 18%

Adjusted by 2012 Exit Poll Ratios (White 78% | non-white 22%)

Hillary: White ( 78% ) x 40% + non-white (22%) x 62% = 44.84%
TRUMP: White ( 78% ) x 46% + non-white (22%) x 24% = 41.16%

Hillary +3.68%
It doesn't change that much as red avatars thought.

[StatesPoll]

VA, IA, and GA are believable.

But GTFO Quinnipiac when it comes to CO. HRC is likely up at least 5 up there.

at this time Q-Poll, VA,GA = lean-Hillary skewed samples.

Virginia(Q-poll): Undersampled White voters: 65% <-> Exit Poll 2012  70%
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/sva09222016_demos_Sp72mk.pdf
Adjust the Poll as 2012 ratios
1) Hillary: White(70%)x32% + Non-White(30%)x70%= 43.4%
2) TRUMP: White(70%)x51% + Non-White(30%)x15%=40.2%

Georgia(Q-Poll): Undersampled White voters: 57%(!) <-> 2012  65%
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/sga09222016_demos_Sp72mk.pdf
Adjust the Poll as 2012 ratios
1) TRUMP: White(65%)x72% + Non-White(35%)x14%= 51.7%
2) Hillary: White(65%)x16% + Non-White(35%)x73%= 35.95%

[Adam Griffin]

JUNK POLLS!!!

Stick to the Northeast, Quinnijunk!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great result in VA, bad in CO and IA. CO might be due to undersampling Hispanics, but IA is really bothersome.

[Tender Branson]

Looks about right.

As long as Hillary wins CO and VA, it should be ok for her.

[Ljube]

OK, so the current state of the race is:

Trump = Romney + OH + IA + ME02
Tossups: FL, NV

The rest Clinton.

Even if Trump wins all tossups, he falls short.

[Donnie]

The first debate will change a lot. You will see.

[Eraserhead]

OK, so the current state of the race is:

Trump = Romney + OH + IA + ME02
Tossups: FL, NV

The rest Clinton.

Even if Trump wins all tossups, he falls short.

Yeah, 272-266.

It'd be a hell of a long night if New Hampshire or Colorado or Virginia or Wisconsin or Michigan or the rest of Maine ended up close though.

[pbrower2a]

Many polls show Iowa very poor for Hillary Clinton. I now see Iowa as a nearly-sure loss for her, perhaps now more sure a loss than Arizona or Georgia. .

[Sir Mohamed]

The IA poll is quite shocking. The election could end with 2012 map and IA and NC switched (341 versus 197).

[oriass16]

I think this election is going to come down to Colorado, when I analyse any Colorado poll I go to see how independents responded to the pollster, D and R in Colorado they almost the same number so they cancel each other 

In this poll Trump won INDs by 9 points which is great for him It is not clear how INDs voted in emrson poll but from available data I estimated they voted trump+15 over Clinton.In 2012 Romney won INDs by only 4 points

I believe if trump can keep this range of double digits lead among INDs  and solidify his position among republicans in here I think he can flip Colorado and take the white house.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The left's "not enough hispanics" shtick is reminding me of Dean Chambers's "not enough republicans" shtick.

Bottom Line: Clinton should be running scared. Trump is leading for 266 EVs. All Trump needs is one of PA/VA/MI/WI/CO. Hillary needs all five.

[Absolution9]

The left's "not enough hispanics" shtick is reminding me of Dean Chambers's "not enough republicans" shtick.

Bottom Line: Clinton should be running scared. Trump is leading for 266 EVs. All Trump needs is one of PA/VA/MI/WI/CO. Hillary needs all five.

Well, she is currently more solid in those states than he is in NC, FL, or NV so her chances are still considerable better, if the election were held today she would probably have 2 to 1 odds of winning.

[elcorazon]

The left's "not enough hispanics" shtick is reminding me of Dean Chambers's "not enough republicans" shtick.

Bottom Line: Clinton should be running scared. Trump is leading for 266 EVs. All Trump needs is one of PA/VA/MI/WI/CO. Hillary needs all five.

this is true, IF Trump wins OH, IA, NC, FL, NV, AZ & GA, which COULD happen, but also may not. If Hillary can take FL, suddenly Trump needs 2, possibly 3 of those 5, all of which strongly lean to Clinton currently.