Steady Staten

[jimrtex]

I just noticed that Richmond County, New York has increased in population in every census since 1790.

Are there any others?  Doing a bit of searching, the other two in New York are Orange and Suffolk. So the key appears to be never developing a strong core, but being close enough to NYC to capture their outflow.

[jimrtex]

I just noticed that Richmond County, New York has increased in population in every census since 1790.

Are there any others?  Doing a bit of searching, the other two in New York are Orange and Suffolk. So the key appears to be never developing a strong core, but being close enough to NYC to capture their outflow.

In Connecticut, Fairfield and New Haven, though New Haven is negative for the first half of this decade.

[muon2]

The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.

[jimrtex]

In Massachusetts:

Bristol

survived by an increase of 47 during the 1930s (0.012%). Since then suburban growth from Boston has overshadowed losses in New Bedford and Fall River

Norfolk

Norfolk had a decline from 110K to 89K between 1860 and 1870, but this was due to the annexation of Roxbury and Dorchester to Boston (and Suffolk County). The population increased in both the 1860 areas, and the 1870 areas.

Plymouth

Worcester

So like in New York, close to  the big city but not too close works best.

[jimrtex]

In New Hampshire

Hillsborough

Between 1820 and 1830 Merrimack County was formed from Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, with enough from Hillsborough to account for the drop in population for Hillsborough.

There was also a small increase in the post-1830 portion of the county, as Nashua began to develop as a mill town (Manchester would follow in the 1840 decade).

[jimrtex]

In Maine

Cumberland. There was a decline from 1850-1860 due to the creation of Androscoggin, which donated Auburn, Danville (later annexed to Auburn), Durham, Minot, and Poland. Surprisingly, Lewiston came from Lincoln.

Androscoggin had increased every decade from its founding, up until the 2000 Census.

[Green Line]

The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.

Do you think that's really true though?  McHenry grew by almost 20% in the 2000s.  It's hard to believe it's lost population, especially with the economy picking back up.

[muon2]

The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.

Do you think that's really true though?  McHenry grew by almost 20% in the 2000s.  It's hard to believe it's lost population, especially with the economy picking back up.

The loss of the suburban tax base is the unspoken cause of much of the impasse in IL. Kendall's growth rate is one tenth of what it was in the last decade. McHenry lost about 600 people from 2010 to 2015. The collars are where the tax base lives, without its growth the state cannot sustain the growth of its schools, roads, and social safety net.

[Del Tachi]

Los Angeles County has recorded population increases ever since it was incorporated.  The slowest decade of growth was actually the 2000s, with only 3.1%. 

[Ban my account ffs!]

The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.

Do you think that's really true though?  McHenry grew by almost 20% in the 2000s.  It's hard to believe it's lost population, especially with the economy picking back up.

The loss of the suburban tax base is the unspoken cause of much of the impasse in IL. Kendall's growth rate is one tenth of what it was in the last decade. McHenry lost about 600 people from 2010 to 2015. The collars are where the tax base lives, without its growth the state cannot sustain the growth of its schools, roads, and social safety net.

I wouldn't say "loss of suburban tax base"... loss of momentum.  Illinois has been under investing in its infrastructure for a while... instead revenues brought in by new growth were being invested into already existing, ongoing expenses.  Which is a mighty stupid thing to do.

As soon as the music stopped back in 2008, Illinois was left with 10 players and 9 chairs.  And now Illinois has 9 chairs, but about 25 chairs worth of deferred maintenance and infrastructure investments to make in order to make living in the state worth it.  

So, a lot of Illinois' problems are, yes, a lack of growth... but that's not a death knell unless the politicians have been mismanaging things.  And I can see why Muon might be reluctant to admit that

I don't think things in the U.S. will be all that different than places in Europe with populations that have aged earlier and faster than us (thus providing a general picture of where things are headed).

The inner cities are the most desirable... and in the case of Japan or Germany... are the only places where a viable real estate market as we  know it continues to exist.  Most of the rest of Germany, for example, is full of vacant properties with bargain basement prices and almost no chance of being sold.

This has happened in rural areas for a long time.  But rather than start in the inner city and fan outward... it will creep inward from the edges.  The exurbs and outer suburbs will stagnate and decline slowly and people who own houses there will have a hard time selling them.  As the kids graduate off and move out... you'll see inevitable abandonment of homes as the parents living there can't sell and want something smaller closer in.  Others will be "stuck".

It's an inevitable, sad, long process that won't be reversed unless

1)  People start moving to Illinois
2)  People have more babies that stay in Illinois

I doubt either will happen in any meaningful way.

[jimrtex]

None in Vermont.

New Jersey:

Camden none since it formation in 1850 (from Gloucester). Is negative for this decade.

Cumberland would be except it lost 2 persons between 1810 and 1820 (12,670 to 12,668). Is negative for this decade.

Gloucester, which gained in 1840 and 1850 including/excluding the detachments of Atlantic and Camden.

Mercer since its formation in 1840.

Monmouth which gained in 1850, including/excluding detachment of Ocean. Is negative for this decade.

Warren lost 36 in 1890 (36,589 to 36,553). Is negative for this decade.

[jimrtex]

Pennsylvania:

Berks (up 0.9% this decade)
Bucks (up 0.9% this decade)
Butler since formation in 1800 (up 1.6% this decade)
Chester
Cumberland (including/excluding Perry detached in 1820)
Dauphin (including/excluding Lebanon detached in 1820) (up 1.8% this decade)
Franklin
Lancaster
Lebanon since formation in 1820
Lehigh since formation in1820
Monroe lost 64 in 1890 (20,175 to 20,111). Is also down 2.0% this decade after increasing 22.5% in previous decade.
Montgomery
York (including Adams detached in 1800. It is conceivable that the current area of York declined from 1790 to 1800. The combination of York+Adams only had a 2.8% increase). (up 1.8% this decade).

None in Delaware.

Maryland

Baltimore county (losses in 1860, 1890, and 1920 were caused by separation of Baltimore city and annexations to the city(,
Carroll since formation in 1840 (up 0.3% in this decade)
Washington (up 1.5% in this decade)
Wicomico since formation in 1870

[Ban my account ffs!]

JimrTex.. You might have better access than I do to county level population data.  (I have to check them on wikipedia individually).

I wonder what counties have had the longest stretch of declining population.

In Minnesota it looks to be Kittson County in the far NW.  It has lost population in 9 of the past 10 censuses.  It actually last grew in the 1930s, regaining the population it had lost in the 1920s. 

But there must be counties that lost in every census since before 1920.

[jimrtex]

JimrTex.. You might have better access than I do to county level population data.  (I have to check them on wikipedia individually).

I wonder what counties have had the longest stretch of declining population.

In Minnesota it looks to be Kittson County in the far NW.  It has lost population in 9 of the past 10 censuses.  It actually last grew in the 1930s, regaining the population it had lost in the 1920s. 

But there must be counties that lost in every census since before 1920.

Population of States and Counties of the United States: 1790 to 1990

I have the print version (available as PDF) at above. If you use the PDF file, be sure to also get the Errata. But there are also Excel/ASCII files. What is particularly useful is that it has formation histories.

I have been using Wikipedia for 2000 and 2010 and 2015 estimates.

Maine: Aroostook since 1960 (32.8% loss 1960-2010)

New Hampshire: Coos since 1980

Massachusetts: Berkshire since 1970

[jimrtex]

New York losers:

Since 1960: Niagara

Since 1970: Chautauqua, Chemung, Erie, Oneida

Since 1980. Allegany, Cattaraugus,

Special Mention:

St.Lawrence gained 13 in 2010 to break a streak since 1980. St.Lawrence has had 111,xxx for five of the past six censuses, and 111,9xx for four of the past six censuses.

Steuben gained 0.3% in 2010, erasing half of the consecutive losses from 1970 to 2010 where it lost a total of 0.8%.

[DINGO Joe]

The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.

Do you think that's really true though?  McHenry grew by almost 20% in the 2000s.  It's hard to believe it's lost population, especially with the economy picking back up.

I know McHenry is where Sears moved their HQ after they left downtown, and then it became Sears-Kmart after noted Hedge Fund bloodsucker Eddie Lampert did his thing.  He's been bleeding them dry ever since (not that it would have been easy even if a real retailer ran things).  Must be one of the most depressing places to work at.

[jimrtex]

New Jersey:

Hudson had lost every decade from 1930 to 1990, but has increased for the past two decades as people have flocked to the Jersey Shore. Other biggies in New Jersey, including Bergen, Hudson, and Union had lost from 1970 to 1990, only to add back population under the leadership of Governor Christie.

Pennsylvania:

Since 1940:

Cambria (lost 32.7% of population). Johnstown city has lost population every decade since 1930 (68.8% of total)
McKean

Since 1960:

Allegheny (up 0.6% for this decade)
Lawrence

Since 1970:

Beaver
Warren

Since 1980"

Armstrong (only one up decade since 1950)
Blair (only one up decade since 1950)
Indiana
Jefferson (only two up decades since 1910, the 1930s and 1970s)
Mercer
Northumberland (lost 28, 0.03% in 2010, only one up decade since 1930s)
Schuylkill (only one up decade since 1930, gained 0.3% in 1970s)
Venango (only one up decade since 1950)
Westmoreland

Special mentions:

Cameron every decade since 1960, except gained +61 in 2000.
Lackawanna lost every decade from 1930 to 2000, gained 0.5% to 2010, has resumed losing.
Philadelphia lost every decade since 1950, gained 0.6% in 2010. Lost all but two decades since 1930 (1940s and 2000s). 2010 population is 98.5% of 1910 population.
Forest gained 56.0% from 2000 to 2010, and is now within 30.1% of peak population in 1900.

[jimrtex]

Maryland:

Baltimore city since 1950. Estimate for 2015 estimated +0.1% increase.

Allegany had been since 1950, but gained +157 in 2010, an increase of 0.21%.

[muon2]

The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.

Do you think that's really true though?  McHenry grew by almost 20% in the 2000s.  It's hard to believe it's lost population, especially with the economy picking back up.

I know McHenry is where Sears moved their HQ after they left downtown, and then it became Sears-Kmart after noted Hedge Fund bloodsucker Eddie Lampert did his thing.  He's been bleeding them dry ever since (not that it would have been easy even if a real retailer ran things).  Must be one of the most depressing places to work at.

Sears moved out to Hoffman Estates in far NW Cook county. There are Sears employees in McHenry county, but not the corporate offices.

[Ban my account ffs!]

JimrTex.. You might have better access than I do to county level population data.  (I have to check them on wikipedia individually).

I wonder what counties have had the longest stretch of declining population.

In Minnesota it looks to be Kittson County in the far NW.  It has lost population in 9 of the past 10 censuses.  It actually last grew in the 1930s, regaining the population it had lost in the 1920s. 

But there must be counties that lost in every census since before 1920.

Population of States and Counties of the United States: 1790 to 1990

I have the print version (available as PDF) at above. If you use the PDF file, be sure to also get the Errata. But there are also Excel/ASCII files. What is particularly useful is that it has formation histories.

I have been using Wikipedia for 2000 and 2010 and 2015 estimates.

Maine: Aroostook since 1960 (32.8% loss 1960-2010)

New Hampshire: Coos since 1980

Massachusetts: Berkshire since 1970

Thank you for the link!  I'll take a look.  It would seem that Kittson county is one of the longest losing counties.  In fact, I'd wager the longest losing is somewhere on the plains or deep south.

[jimrtex]

Virginia Losers:

Alleghany since 1980. Gain in 2010 was due to absorption of Clifton Forge IC. Clifton Forge has declined since 1970. Covington IC has lost since 1960, its first census after becoming an independent city in 1952. The traditional Alleghany County has also lost since 1980.

Buchanan since 1980.

Dickenson since 1980.

Halifax (excluding South Boston IC) since 1980. South Boston was absorbed into Halifax in 1995.

Highland since 1980.

Northampton since 1980, except for +32 (+0.25%).

Martinsville IC since 1980.

Petersburg IC since 1980

Portsmouth IC since 1960.


Virginia Winners

Counties (based on boundaries at the time of the census)

Fairfax since 1830 (increased despite creation of Fairfax and Falls Church cities, and annexation by Alexandria and Fairfax cities)

Page since formation in 1840 (is negative for current decade)

Prince William since 1870 (increased despite creation of Manassas and Manassas Park cities)

Montgomery since 1900 (loss in 1900 caused by creation of Radford city).

James City county since 1910 (this was after creation of Williamsburg)

Chesterfield since 1920 (this was after the creation of Manchester, but loss in 1920 may have been due to additional annexations to Richmond city, also increased despite creation of Colonial Heights)

Frederick since 1920 (this was after the creation of Winchester)

Henrico since 1920 (this was after annexations to Richmond city)


Traditional Counties (including territory in independent cities)

Campbell since 1790 (including Lynchburg)

Fairfax since 1830 (including Alexandria city, Fairfax city, and Falls Church)

Frederick since 1840 (loss in 1840 was mostly due to creation of Clarke and Warren counties, but there may have been a loss in the 1830 territory. Otherwise 1810. Includes Winchester)

Montgomery since 1840 (1840 population for Montgomery and Pulaski was less than 1830 for Montgomery. Includes Radford).

Page since formation in 1840 (is negative for current decade)

Rockingham since 1840 (loss in 1840 possibly due to creation of Page, otherwise 1790. Includes Harrisonburg).

Princess Anne (dissolved into Virginia Beach) since 1840.

Roanoke since 1860 (including Roanoke city)

Prince William since 1870 (including Manassas and Manassas Park)

Nansemond (dissolved into Suffolk) since 1870.


Independent Cities

Fredericksburg since formation in 1900.

Harrisonburg since formation in 1920.

Williamsburg since 1920.

Newport News since 1930.

Galax since formation in 1960.

Chesapeake since formation in 1970 (or South Norfolk since 1930)

Franklin since 1970

Manassas since formation in 1980

Manassas Park since formation in 1980.

Poquoson since formation in 1980.


Notable

Elizabeth City county (dissolved into Hampton) lost in 2010, first since 1840.

Charlottesville loss in 2000, first since formation in  1900.

Radford loss in 2000, first since formation in 1900.

[jimrtex]

Thank you for the link!  I'll take a look.  It would seem that Kittson county is one of the longest losing counties.  In fact, I'd wager the longest losing is somewhere on the plains or deep south.

Through 31 states (through WI + WV)


National Leaders  (5 or More Decades)

Since 1890

Knox, MO

Since 1900

Adams, IA
Audubon, IA
Carroll, MO
Chariton, MO
Keokuk, IA
Shelby, MO
Stark, IL
Taylor, IA
Wayne, IA
Worth, MO

Since 1910

Monroe, IA

Since 1920

Calhoun, IA
Greene, IL
Iron, MI

Since 1930

Bolivar, MS
Borden, TX
Cass, IA
Collingsworth, TX
Cottle, TX
Fisher, TX
Foard, TX
Franklin, IA
Hall, TX
Hardeman, TX
Haskell, TX
Ida, IA
Kent, TX
Knox, TX
Lynn, TX
Motley, TX
Sac, IA
Shelby, IA
Throckmorton, TX
Woodruff, AR

Since 1940

Baylor, TX
Cambria, PA
Chicot, AR
Cherokee, IA
Clay, GA
East Carroll, LA
Fulton, KY
Gogebic, MI
Hickman, KY
Humphreys, MS
Kossuth, IA
Lee, AR
Lyon, IA
McKean, PA
Monona, IA
Monroe, AR
New Madrid, MO
Noxubee, MS
O'Brien, IA
Ohio, WV
Osceola, IA
Palo Alto, IA
Pemiscot, MO
Perry, AL
Pocahontas, IA
Quitman, MS
Sharkey, MS
Sumter, AL
Tensas, LA
Wilcox, AL

Since 1950

Baltimore city, MD
Coahoma, MS
Floyd, IA
Luce, MI
McDowell, WV
Mississippi, AR
Phillips, AR
St.Louis city, MO
Terrell, TX

Since 1960

Allegheny, PA
Aroostook, ME
Benton, IN
Briscoe, TX
Cabell, WV
Carroll, IL
Cerro Gordo, IA
Cochran, TX
Covington independent city, VA
Crosby, TX
Dallas, AL
Emmet, IA
Ford, IL
Floyd, TX
Gray, TX
Hardin, IA
Humboldt, IA
Jefferson, OH
Lawrence, PA
Mitchell. IA
Niagara, NY
Ontonagon, MI
Orleans, LA
Portsmouth independent city, VA
Refugio, TX
Upton, TX


State Leaders (less than 5 decades)

Since 1970

Berkshire, MA

Since 1980

Coos, NH

The following are Virginia leaders among counties, and traditional counties. See 1960 above for independent cities.

Alleghany, VA
Alleghany, including Covington IC, VA
Buchanan, VA
Dickenson, VA
Highland, VA

Washington, NC

Bamberg, SC
Union, SC

Since 1990

Newport, RI

Since 2000

Essex, Rutland, Windsor, VT

Cape May, Essex, NJ

Benton, Carroll, Clay, Grundy, Hardeman, Haywood, Lake, Obion, TN

Monroe, Pinellas, FL

Ashland, Buffalo, Burnett, Crawford, Door, Florence, Forest, Green Lake, Iron, Langlade, Lincoln, Manitowoc, Marinette, Menominee, Oneida, Price, Rusk, Washburn, Wood, WI


No Counties Lost in 2010. Latest Previous loss.

Last Loss in 1980

Hartford, CT (1970-1980)

Last Loss in 1920

Kent, DE (1900-1920)
Sussex, DE (1900-1920)

[jimrtex]

North Carolina losers:

Washington since 1980 (only three counties lost between 1990 and 2000).

North Carolina gainers.

Iredell since 1790 (loss in 1850 due to creation of Alexander)
Burke since 1790 (loss in 1840 due to creation of Yancey, loss in 1850 due to creation of Caldwell and McDowell).
Guilford since 1790
Lincoln since 1790 (loss in 1850 due to creation of Catawba, Cleveland, and Gaston)
Moore since 1790 (loss in 1910 due to creation of Lee)
Orange since 1790 (loss in 1850 due to creation of Alamance, loss in 1890 due to creation of Durham)
Randolph since 1790
Surry since 1790 (loss in 1860 due to creation of Yadkin). Surry is negative for current decade.
Wake since 1790
Wilkes since 1790 (loss in 1800 due to creation of Ashe, loss in 1850 due to creation of Caldwell and Alexander). Wilkes is negative for current decade.

Buncombe since formation in 1800 (loss in 1840 due to creation of Henderson and Yancey, loss in 1860 due to creation of Madison)
Cabarrus since formation in 1800

Haywood since formation in 1810 (loss in 1860 due to creation of Jackson)

New Hanover since 1820 (loss in 1880 due to creation of Pender)

Davidson since formation in 1830

Carteret since -6 loss in 1840, otherwise since 1790.
Craven since 1840 (loss in 1890 due to creation of Pamlico)
Davie since formation in 1840
Henderson since formation in 1840 (loss in 1870 due to creation of Transylvania)
Mecklenburg since 1840 (loss in 1850 due to creation of Union).
Pitt since 1840.
Rowan since 1840 (loss in 1840 partially due to creation of Davie, but combined Rowan+Davie lost population, loss in 1830 due to creation of Davidson. Rowan may have increased since 1790 in current borders).

Alamance since formation in 1850
Alexander since formation in 1850
Catawba since formation in 1850
Cleveland since formation in 1850
Forsyth since formation in 1850
Gaston since formation in 1850
McDowell since formation in 1850
Stanly since formation in 1850

Harnett since formation in 1860
Yadkin since formation in 1860

Transylvania since formation in 1870.

Durham since formation in 1890

Lee since formation in 1910

Hoke since formation in 1920.

[jimrtex]

South Carolina losers

Bamberg since 1980
Union since 1980

South Carolina gainers

Greenville since 1790

Horry since formation  in 1810
York since 1810

Anderson since formation in 1830

Lancaster since 1840
Pickens since 1840 (loss in 1870 due to creation of Oconee)
Sumter since 1840 (loss in 1860 due to creation of Clarendon, loss in 1910 due to creation of Lee)

Richland since 1860

Oconee since formation in 1870
Spartanburg since 1870

Aiken since creation in 1880

Florence since creation in 1890

Cherokee since creation in 1900
Greenwood since creation in 1900

[jimrtex]

Georgia Losers:

Clay County since 1940 (and 9 of last 10). Clay joins Cambria, PA with the longest losing located so far. Clay is on the Chattahoochee below Columbus, and is 60% black.

Stewart had a 10-decade (since 1900) broken in 2010. The Hispanic population increased by 14-fold between 2000 and 2007 to 24% (96% foreign born). ICE has a detention facility in the county.

Talbot had declined every decade between 1880 and 2000, before increasing in 2010. I have not found a reason, though census estimates showed an increase from 2000 to 2007. The population has resumed its decline, and estimates show a population below that of 2000. The only explanations that I could find is the opening of an aggregates mine, construction of the Fall Line Freeway (this an east west highway from Columbus to Macon to Augusta to bypass Atlanta). There was speculation that suburban growth from Harris County would spill over into Talbot, but that seems fanciful.

Warren had lost population from 1910 to 1990. After a gain in 2000, it has resumed its decline. The peak population was before the war. It is adjacent to Taliaferro County.

Webster had lost population every decade since 1900, before reversing the trend in both 2000 and 2010. Originally name Kinchafoonee it was renamed in honor of Daniel Webster. It is southeast of Columbus.

Other notables:

Baker snapped a streak from 1920 in 2000, and has lost population in 8 of the past 10 censuses. Baker is southwest of Albany.

Calhoun snapped a streak from 1930 in 2000, and gained again in 2010. Calhoun State Prison which opened in 1994, has about 1/4 of the population. Calhoun is west of Albany.

Chattahoochee has lost since 1970, losing 56.4% of its population (25,813 to 11,267). About 3/4 of the county is occupied by Fort Benning. Between 2011 and 2012 it was the fastest growing county in  the country.

Dougherty has lost population for the last three census. It is notable as more populous county, dropping below 100,000 during this period. Albany is the county seat.

Jefferson has lost population since 1980. The 1970s were its only increase since 1920.

Randolph has lost population since 1980, and 8 of the past 10 censuses. Its only increases were the 1930s and 1970s.

Taliaferro had lost population from 1940 to 1990. before gaining in 2000 and resuming a decline in 2010. It now has about 20% of its 1920 peak population. Taliaferro is the least populous county in Georgia, and 2nd least populous east of the Mississippi with a 2010 population of 1,717. It is the only county noted here that is not in southwest Georgia, as it is between Athens and Augusta. It is the birthplace and home of Alex Stephens.