Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way)

[cinyc]

Siena College/Newsday/News 12 Poll of Long Island, NY
Trump 43%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%
Won't Vote (Volunteered) 1%
Don't Know/No Opinion 5%

Trump 44%
Clinton 44%
Someone Else (Vol) 3%
Won't Vote (Vol) 2%
Don't Know/No Opinion 7%

Nassau is 43-41 Trump in the four-way.  Suffolk is 44-37 Trump.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

LOL wut?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Whatever makes the trumpbots sleep at night.

[Tender Branson]

Wasn't this about O+7 in 2008 and O+5 in 2012 ?

[Ebsy]

Wasn't this about O+7 in 2008 and O+5 in 2012 ?

Who cares?

[KingSweden]

Actually unsurprised, LI seems like the kind of place where Trump's schtick would be well received.

[cinyc]

LOL wut?

It's a poll of Long Island done by Siena College for their newspaper and cable news station.  Suffolk voted 51-48 Obama in 2012.  Nassau voted 53-46 in 2012.  McCain lost both in 2008.

The poll shows that Trump is slightly outperforming the last two Republican candidates on Long Island - as many posters here expected.

[cinyc]

Wasn't this about O+7 in 2008 and O+5 in 2012 ?

Who cares?

Those, like me, who look at county polling to try to figure out what types of shifts we will see in the electorate this cycle.  It appears white ethnic New Yorkers are more Trump than they were Romney, especially Catholics.

[KingSweden]

LOL wut?

It's a poll of Long Island done by Siena College for their newspaper and cable news station.  Suffolk voted 51-48 Obama in 2012.  Nassau voted 53-46 in 2012.  McCain lost both in 2008.

The poll shows that Trump is slightly outperforming the last two Republican candidates on Long Island - as many posters here expected.

Do you think Trump wins both, or is this mostly just big numbers in Suffolk?

[cinyc]

LOL wut?

It's a poll of Long Island done by Siena College for their newspaper and cable news station.  Suffolk voted 51-48 Obama in 2012.  Nassau voted 53-46 in 2012.  McCain lost both in 2008.

The poll shows that Trump is slightly outperforming the last two Republican candidates on Long Island - as many posters here expected.

Do you think Trump wins both, or is this mostly just big numbers in Suffolk?

Probably the latter.  Suffolk is almost always a few points more Republican than Nassau.  It's also less educated and less wealthy, IIRC.

Suffolk is also a slightly-Republican leaning PVI bellwether for the country.  A lot of the state and national bellwether counties in the Axiom poll, however, have shown significant shifts from each other and the national average - once again showing that this might be a realigning election.

[Xing]

Wasn't Long Island supposed to be a place where Trump was expected to improve on Romney's numbers?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wasn't Long Island supposed to be a place where Trump was expected to improve on Romney's numbers?

It wasn't universally viewed as that because it's obviously well-educated (especially Nassau) and the trend is the reverse elsewhere, but I'm glad to see some validation of my own views from my people. All Brooklyn transplants vote the same 😁

[Ljube]

Actually, these are bad numbers for Trump.
If it stays like this, he isn't going to win the election.

He needs to improve with this demographic.

[Seriously?]

Actually, these are bad numbers for Trump.
If it stays like this, he isn't going to win the election.

He needs to improve with this demographic.

How do you figure? Assuming a nation-wide swing, Trump has this election won with the Nassau/Suffolk Co. swing. He'd need to gain 5 points on Obama's numbers to make it even. I think he nets 9 in Nassau and 11 in Suffolk here.

[Eraserhead]

Wasn't this about O+7 in 2008 and O+5 in 2012 ?

Who cares?

Probably most people who take the time to post on a forum like this I would think.

[Skye]

Wasn't this about O+7 in 2008 and O+5 in 2012 ?

Who cares?

Must be hard being such a hack.

[jaichind]

Nassau + Suffolk together are around 77% White but higher educated on average.  Given that this poll has it Trump +4 in a 4 way races seems to be relatively good news for given that he is holding his own among educated Whites.  This sort of result implies somewhat of a tie nationally. 

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Nassau + Suffolk together are around 77% White but higher educated on average.  Given that this poll has it Trump +4 in a 4 way races seems to be relatively good news for given that he is holding his own among educated Whites.  This sort of result implies somewhat of a tie nationally. 

It implies it, but the southern college educated whites and to a lesser extent Midwestern ones aren't giving it to him.

[Seriously?]

Nassau + Suffolk together are around 77% White but higher educated on average.  Given that this poll has it Trump +4 in a 4 way races seems to be relatively good news for given that he is holding his own among educated Whites.  This sort of result implies somewhat of a tie nationally. 

It implies it, but the southern college educated whites and to a lesser extent Midwestern ones aren't giving it to him.

Eh, the one county he lost in NY was New York County (Manhattan), which is the epitome of highly-educated whites on the Republican side of things. (To the extent they exist.)

[Absolution9]

Nassau + Suffolk together are around 77% White but higher educated on average.  Given that this poll has it Trump +4 in a 4 way races seems to be relatively good news for given that he is holding his own among educated Whites.  This sort of result implies somewhat of a tie nationally. 

I think Nassau + Suffolk are only about 67% white per the 2010 census, would be even less now. 

[jaichind]

Nassau + Suffolk together are around 77% White but higher educated on average.  Given that this poll has it Trump +4 in a 4 way races seems to be relatively good news for given that he is holding his own among educated Whites.  This sort of result implies somewhat of a tie nationally. 

I think Nassau + Suffolk are only about 67% white per the 2010 census, would be even less now. 

You are right. My mistake. I lumped in White Hispanics in the number. If so then this poll is very positive for Trump. 

[Absolution9]

Nassau + Suffolk together are around 77% White but higher educated on average.  Given that this poll has it Trump +4 in a 4 way races seems to be relatively good news for given that he is holding his own among educated Whites.  This sort of result implies somewhat of a tie nationally. 

I think Nassau + Suffolk are only about 67% white per the 2010 census, would be even less now. 

You are right. My mistake. I lumped in White Hispanics in the number. If so then this poll is very positive for Trump. 

Yeah non Hispanic whites probably make up over 70% of likely voters though.

[Gass3268]

This actually jives with the last statewide Siena poll that had Clinton up 21 statewide, but had her essentially tied in the NYC suburbs. It was her worst region.

[Absolution9]

This actually jives with the last statewide Siena poll that had Clinton up 21 statewide, but had her essentially tied in the NYC suburbs. It was her worst region.

If he is this close in the NYC suburbs I wouldn't be surprised if he does better than -21.  He has to be doing almost as well upstate as he is in the suburbs.

[Gass3268]

This actually jives with the last statewide Siena poll that had Clinton up 21 statewide, but had her essentially tied in the NYC suburbs. It was her worst region.

If he is this close in the NYC suburbs I wouldn't be surprised if he does better than -21.  He has to be doing almost as well upstate as he is in the suburbs.

That's because Trump is getting murdered in New York City, which is pretty hilarious.

New York City

Clinton 70%
Trump 18%
Johnson 3%
Stein 3%

New York City Suburbs

Clinton 39%
Trump 38%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%

Upstate

Clinton 42%
Trump 36%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%