Competitive House Predictions: CA-52 to FL-13

[ElectionsGuy]

One vote for each race.

Update/Vote in the previous threads. There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall results!

Part 1

Predictions



Safe R: 202
Safe D: 176

Competitive R: 5
Competitive D: 5

Republicans: 207
Democrats: 181

Net Gains

CA-25 (D+1)

All the safe races are colored in dark red or blue by virtue of not being in play in any of the three prognosticaters. Competitive races are colored in lighter and depend on poll results. The two are added up for the grand total. The gray districts are obviously the ones we have yet to do. Net gains will also be listed and noted of. Right now, the only one that's close is CA-25 (the only net gain thus far) and that can easily be changed as the thread only has 28 votes right now. Also just a note in case one doesn't know (I'm guessing the vast majority do) but Florida totally redistricted their congressional seats. FL-02 and FL-10 are are deep red and blue districts respectively, completely different from the previous versions of the districts. FL-07 is also much more Democratic.

My Predictions

CA-52: Peters (D)
CO-03: Tipton (R)
CO-06: Coffman (R)
FL-02: Dunn (R)
FL-07: Mica (R)
FL-10: Demings (D)
FL-13: Crist (D)

[ElectionsGuy]

"Oh no, the colors" Yeah I screwed that up and realized it after I was done with paint, but I think its obvious enough the Republican and Democratic districts.

[smoltchanov]

Hope that Carroll will be able to (finally) defeat Coffman, who is way too conservative for district. Otherwise - not too difficult (though Jolly will, probably, strongly outperform "normal" Republican percentage for his district)

[Kingpoleon]

To me, the only notable thing is I expect Jolly to only lose by between four and eight points.

[Maxwell]

my only different prediction from yours is I think Coffman is going to lose to Carroll. It'll be tight either way though.

[Figueira]

Went with OP's again.

[Xing]

Democrats pick up CO-6, FL-10, and FL-13, Republicans pick up FL-02. I think that Trump's weakness in Colorado, combined with the joke that is Darryl Glenn will cause Republicans to have an abysmal year in Colorado, and that will drag Coffman down just enough for him to narrowly lose.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this feels like the year that CO-6 finally flips.

[Vosem]

Carroll, Dunn, Demings, and Crist all succeed in flipping seats. If Democrats can't beat Coffman this year, then he has that seat locked-down essentially for life. If Democrats can't beat Jolly this year, then Charlie Crist is still a hilariously sh**tty politician.

[Maxwell]

while we're on the topic of Colorado, I feel like Tipton is going to underperform thanks to Glenn, but still win by at least 10 points.

[Heisenberg]

Carroll, Dunn, Demings, and Crist all succeed in flipping seats. If Democrats can't beat Coffman this year, then he has that seat locked-down essentially for life. If Democrats can't beat Jolly this year, then Charlie Crist is still a hilariously sh**tty politician.

If Jolly somehow pulls this, I think the NRSC will try to recruit him for Senate in 2018, and national Republicans will coalesce around him.

[JMT]

Carroll, Dunn, Demings, and Crist all succeed in flipping seats. If Democrats can't beat Coffman this year, then he has that seat locked-down essentially for life. If Democrats can't beat Jolly this year, then Charlie Crist is still a hilariously sh**tty politician.

If Jolly somehow pulls this, I think the NRSC will try to recruit him for Senate in 2018, and national Republicans will coalesce around him.

National Republican actually don't really like Jolly, considering he's basically started a war with the NRCC over fundraising. And I also am doubtful Jolly would run for Senate if he wins this year; it seems like the only reason he ran for Senate this year was because his district became much more democratic. I think he may want to stay in the House and not risk a senate loss.

But then again, none of this will likely matter, because I think Crist will defeat him this year anyways.

[Heisenberg]

Carroll, Dunn, Demings, and Crist all succeed in flipping seats. If Democrats can't beat Coffman this year, then he has that seat locked-down essentially for life. If Democrats can't beat Jolly this year, then Charlie Crist is still a hilariously sh**tty politician.

If Jolly somehow pulls this, I think the NRSC will try to recruit him for Senate in 2018, and national Republicans will coalesce around him.

National Republican actually don't really like Jolly, considering he's basically started a war with the NRCC over fundraising. And I also am doubtful Jolly would run for Senate if he wins this year; it seems like the only reason he ran for Senate this year was because his district became much more democratic. I think he may want to stay in the House and not risk a senate loss.

But then again, none of this will likely matter, because I think Crist will defeat him this year anyways.

True, if he somehow wins this year he'll be in at least decent position to hang on in 2018 and 2020. Plus there are other good potential Republican candidates for Senate in 2018, like Atwater, Tom Rooney, DeSantis, Lopez-Cantera and Curbelo.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

my only different prediction from yours is I think Coffman is going to lose to Carroll. It'll be tight either way though.

This, also:

while we're on the topic of Colorado, I feel like Tipton is going to underperform thanks to Glenn, but still win by at least 10 points.

Tipton will win, but I could see it being as little as eight points simply because he's such a weak incumbent.

[Young Conservative]

FL10 and FL2 are not competitive after redistribution. Romney won the new FL2 with over 60% and I'm not sure about FL10 but Webster wouldn't switch districts if it was competitive.

[ElectionsGuy]

FL10 and FL2 are not competitive after redistribution. Romney won the new FL2 with over 60% and I'm not sure about FL10 but Webster wouldn't switch districts if it was competitive.

Cook put them as Likely R (FL-02) and Likely D (FL-10), probably just because they're flips. Pretty much everybody else agrees they're safe but got to abide by my rules. Cook is definitely my least favorite out of the three.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Murphy's district (PA) listed as competitive?  I'm pretty sure he's running unopposed

[Nyvin]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

[ElectionsGuy]

Why is Murphy's district (PA) listed as competitive?  I'm pretty sure he's running unopposed

Good catch, should be PA-16 (Lancaster district). Will be changed in the next thread.

[Vosem]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

[Nyvin]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Exact opposite other than being a birther anyway.

The district is changing so fast I don't think any candidate should feel comfortable there, especially not a Republican.   Both Araphoe and Adams are among the fastest growing counties in the country, and it's exactly the area of CO-6 that's growing fast.   He won in 2012 by 2% and in 2014 didn't face much opposition.  

Coffman is commonly made into a Republican hero because he's from a swing district (like usual...) but he's actually quite overrated and I expect him to go down at some point or another.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Coffman's way too right-wing to ever become remotely entrenched in the current version of this district, even if he wins this year (which I don't think he will).

[Vosem]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Exact opposite other than being a birther anyway.

The district is changing so fast I don't think any candidate should feel comfortable there, especially not a Republican.   Both Araphoe and Adams are among the fastest growing counties in the country, and it's exactly the area of CO-6 that's growing fast.   He won in 2012 by 2% and in 2014 didn't face much opposition.

In 2014 he faced one of the premier rising stars of the Colorado Democratic Party, a guy who attracted ex-Presidents and presidential candidates (Bill Clinton and Howard Dean) to come and campaign for him. Just because Coffman ended up winning solidly doesn't mean the Democrats didn't try to put up a fight.

Coffman is commonly made into a Republican hero because he's from a swing district (like usual...) but he's actually quite overrated and I expect him to go down at some point or another.  

In what way is he overrated?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Exact opposite other than being a birther anyway.

The district is changing so fast I don't think any candidate should feel comfortable there, especially not a Republican.   Both Araphoe and Adams are among the fastest growing counties in the country, and it's exactly the area of CO-6 that's growing fast.   He won in 2012 by 2% and in 2014 didn't face much opposition.

In 2014 he faced one of the premier rising stars of the Colorado Democratic Party, a guy who attracted ex-Presidents and presidential candidates (Bill Clinton and Howard Dean) to come and campaign for him. Just because Coffman ended up winning solidly doesn't mean the Democrats didn't try to put up a fight.

Coffman is commonly made into a Republican hero because he's from a swing district (like usual...) but he's actually quite overrated and I expect him to go down at some point or another.  

In what way is he overrated?

Bolded the relevant part

[ElectionsGuy]

Bumping due to closeness of CO-06.