Competitive House Predictions: CA-52 to FL-13

[Heisenberg]

Carroll, Dunn, Demings, and Crist all succeed in flipping seats. If Democrats can't beat Coffman this year, then he has that seat locked-down essentially for life. If Democrats can't beat Jolly this year, then Charlie Crist is still a hilariously sh**tty politician.

If Jolly somehow pulls this, I think the NRSC will try to recruit him for Senate in 2018, and national Republicans will coalesce around him.

[Heisenberg]

Carroll, Dunn, Demings, and Crist all succeed in flipping seats. If Democrats can't beat Coffman this year, then he has that seat locked-down essentially for life. If Democrats can't beat Jolly this year, then Charlie Crist is still a hilariously sh**tty politician.

If Jolly somehow pulls this, I think the NRSC will try to recruit him for Senate in 2018, and national Republicans will coalesce around him.

National Republican actually don't really like Jolly, considering he's basically started a war with the NRCC over fundraising. And I also am doubtful Jolly would run for Senate if he wins this year; it seems like the only reason he ran for Senate this year was because his district became much more democratic. I think he may want to stay in the House and not risk a senate loss.

But then again, none of this will likely matter, because I think Crist will defeat him this year anyways.

True, if he somehow wins this year he'll be in at least decent position to hang on in 2018 and 2020. Plus there are other good potential Republican candidates for Senate in 2018, like Atwater, Tom Rooney, DeSantis, Lopez-Cantera and Curbelo.