Competitive House Predictions: CA-52 to FL-13

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

my only different prediction from yours is I think Coffman is going to lose to Carroll. It'll be tight either way though.

This, also:

while we're on the topic of Colorado, I feel like Tipton is going to underperform thanks to Glenn, but still win by at least 10 points.

Tipton will win, but I could see it being as little as eight points simply because he's such a weak incumbent.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Murphy's district (PA) listed as competitive?  I'm pretty sure he's running unopposed

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Coffman's way too right-wing to ever become remotely entrenched in the current version of this district, even if he wins this year (which I don't think he will).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Exact opposite other than being a birther anyway.

The district is changing so fast I don't think any candidate should feel comfortable there, especially not a Republican.   Both Araphoe and Adams are among the fastest growing counties in the country, and it's exactly the area of CO-6 that's growing fast.   He won in 2012 by 2% and in 2014 didn't face much opposition.

In 2014 he faced one of the premier rising stars of the Colorado Democratic Party, a guy who attracted ex-Presidents and presidential candidates (Bill Clinton and Howard Dean) to come and campaign for him. Just because Coffman ended up winning solidly doesn't mean the Democrats didn't try to put up a fight.

Coffman is commonly made into a Republican hero because he's from a swing district (like usual...) but he's actually quite overrated and I expect him to go down at some point or another.  

In what way is he overrated?

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