Competitive House Predictions: CA-52 to FL-13

[Vosem]

Carroll, Dunn, Demings, and Crist all succeed in flipping seats. If Democrats can't beat Coffman this year, then he has that seat locked-down essentially for life. If Democrats can't beat Jolly this year, then Charlie Crist is still a hilariously sh**tty politician.

[Vosem]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

[Vosem]

CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Exact opposite other than being a birther anyway.

The district is changing so fast I don't think any candidate should feel comfortable there, especially not a Republican.   Both Araphoe and Adams are among the fastest growing counties in the country, and it's exactly the area of CO-6 that's growing fast.   He won in 2012 by 2% and in 2014 didn't face much opposition.

In 2014 he faced one of the premier rising stars of the Colorado Democratic Party, a guy who attracted ex-Presidents and presidential candidates (Bill Clinton and Howard Dean) to come and campaign for him. Just because Coffman ended up winning solidly doesn't mean the Democrats didn't try to put up a fight.

Coffman is commonly made into a Republican hero because he's from a swing district (like usual...) but he's actually quite overrated and I expect him to go down at some point or another.  

In what way is he overrated?