McClatchy/Marist C+7

[Doimper]

With an LV screen:

Clinton 48
Trump 41
Neither 8
Other 1
Undecided 2

[Podgy the Bear]

So except for Rasmussen (which has really become a joke--but something that Trump and Hannity will quote constantly), the latest round of national polling has showed a clear uptick for Hillary.  State polling trends will follow accordingly.

I still think IA is beyond reach (too much establishment support for Trump, and Hillary has never been popular there).  But if it's 5-7 points now, that means FL, OH, and NC will be moving in Hillary's direction.  And no problems with NV or CO.

[Lief 🗽]

So literally everyone who is not garbage agrees that Clinton leads by somewhere between Obama 2012 and Obama 2008. Neat.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Women support clinton by +23
Whites support Trump with only 55% overall. Romney got 59%. Clinton gets 41%!!!
Hispanics support Trump 19%
Blacks 6%

[afleitch]

So literally everyone who is not garbage agrees that Clinton leads by somewhere between Obama 2012 and Obama 2008. Neat.

Obama 2012 less Iowa plus North Carolina.

[Seriously?]

Since this poll's tilt was a 14/15 point Hillary lead the last time this poll was released, 6/7 seems about right, given the poll's methodological lean.

[StatesPoll]

With an LV screen:

Clinton 48
Trump 41
Neither 8
Other 1
Undecided 2

White 67%? This Poll is skewed for Hillary about 3-4%

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

With an LV screen:

Clinton 48
Trump 41
Neither 8
Other 1
Undecided 2

White 67%? This Poll is skewed for Hillary about 3-4%

Or, you know, the electorate is different this year than it was in 2012. Ever considered that?

[Gass3268]

Good to see that the race as settled back to about Clinton +6!

[Cruzcrew]

With an LV screen:

Clinton 48
Trump 41
Neither 8
Other 1
Undecided 2

White 67%? This Poll is skewed for Hillary about 3-4%

Or, you know, the electorate is different this year than it was in 2012. Ever considered that?

The white share of the electorate probably isn't declining by 5% in one election. 70% seems more realistic.

[jaichind]

The white share of the electorate probably isn't declining by 5% in one election. 70% seems more realistic.

Agreed.  I think it might be as high as 72% just like 2012 given likely lower AA turnout and higher low educated White turnout.   To be fair this poll has 10% as "Other" under Race.  Not sure what that is about.

[jaichind]

The same poll has Clinton +14 back in early Aug.  In 538 that +14 was adjusted to Clinton +8.  So I guess 538 will adjust this to Clinton +1 or something like that.  We will see.

[Fusionmunster]

I think pollsters are betting on Trump driving up minority turn out.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Blacks make up 13% of this nation and made up 13% of the electorate in 2012...Hispanics 17.6% but only 10% in 2012 of the electorate. I think if they're angry and scared this year that they could add another 2% to that electorate.

[Absolution9]

Blacks make up 13% of this nation and made up 13% of the electorate in 2012...Hispanics 17.6% but only 10% in 2012 of the electorate. I think if they're angry and scared this year that they could add another 2% to that electorate.

That would still mean a 70% white electorate.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Blacks make up 13% of this nation and made up 13% of the electorate in 2012...Hispanics 17.6% but only 10% in 2012 of the electorate. I think if they're angry and scared this year that they could add another 2% to that electorate.

That would still mean a 70% white electorate.

If hispanics came out as blacks did in 2012 they could make up their population share or 17.6%. That would push whites down into the mid 60's.

[Brittain33]

The white share of the electorate probably isn't declining by 5% in one election. 70% seems more realistic.

Agreed.  I think it might be as high as 72% just like 2012 given likely lower AA turnout and higher low educated White turnout.   

One would expect college-educated White turnout to drop significantly. A lot of those Romney voters who can't vote for Trump, won't come out for Clinton or Johnson.

[Mr. Morden]

Midwest
Trump 46%
Clinton 44%

Northeast
Clinton 57%
Trump 35%

South
Trump 48%
Clinton 43%

West
Clinton 54%
Trump 32%

[Wiz in Wis]

Midwest
Trump 46%
Clinton 44%

Northeast
Clinton 57%
Trump 35%

South
Trump 48%
Clinton 43%

West
Clinton 54%
Trump 32%

What if Emerson was RIGHT about IL... DUN DUN DUN!

[BlueSwan]

Good to see that the race as settled back to about Clinton +6!

I'm not sure that it is though. Yeah, some of the new national polls seem to indicate this, but others and most notably a bunch of state polls indicate a much tighter race. Also, there isn't much in the news to justify a return to +6 for Clinton.

But I certainly hope you are right and that the state polls will follow suit soon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Midwest
Trump 46%
Clinton 44%

Northeast
Clinton 57%
Trump 35%

South
Trump 48%
Clinton 43%

West
Clinton 54%
Trump 32%

I'm pretty sure all of the plains states are in the Midwest in these things.

[Erc]

So literally everyone who is not garbage agrees that Clinton leads by somewhere between Obama 2012 and Obama 2008. Neat.

Obama 2012 less Iowa plus North Carolina.

I've been thinking that recently, too.  Ohio and ME-2 seem possible pickups beyond that for Trump; Georgia seems like a possible additional pickup for Clinton.

[StatesPoll]

Midwest
Trump 46%
Clinton 44%

Northeast
Clinton 57%
Trump 35%

South
Trump 48%
Clinton 43%

West
Clinton 54%
Trump 32%

I'm pretty sure all of the plains states are in the Midwest in these things.

Believe me
Marist Standard : OH,IA,PA = Midwest
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651
(July poll)

[elcorazon]

Midwest
Trump 46%
Clinton 44%

Northeast
Clinton 57%
Trump 35%

South
Trump 48%
Clinton 43%

West
Clinton 54%
Trump 32%

I'm pretty sure all of the plains states are in the Midwest in these things.

Believe me
Marist Standard : OH,IA,PA = Midwest
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651
(July poll)

PA is midwest? Could be. But point raised: are Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska the Dakotas also Midwest?

[Gass3268]

I imagine they are using the census defined regions: