More likely to flip?
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Poll
Question: Which state is more likely to flip?
#1
Maine		  
#2
New Hampshire		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: More likely to flip?  (Read 589 times)
AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 23, 2016, 05:58:33 PM »
This question may seem to be strange, but it is serious.

In previous elections, one would usually say that a Republican is more likely to win New Hampshire than Maine's statewide vote. However, recent 4-way polls in Maine show that Clinton's lead is just in the low single digits while she is leading by a more comfortable margin in New Hampshire. The racial demographics of the two states are similar, but New Hampshire's population is more educated. Trump is doing much better amongst voters without college degrees.

Which is more likely to flip?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2016, 06:02:49 PM »
Neither will happen, but New Hampshire would theoretically be more likely, since Trump would have to win ME-02 by about 20% to have a chance to win the statewide vote in Maine, since ME-01 is very heavily Democratic.
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AGA
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2016, 06:05:30 PM »
Quote from: Titanium R Nevada on September 23, 2016, 06:02:49 PM
Neither will happen, but New Hampshire would theoretically be more likely, since Trump would have to win ME-02 by about 20% to have a chance to win the statewide vote in Maine, since ME-01 is very heavily Democratic.

That is assuming that he only improves upon Romney in ME-02. He could still decrease the margin in ME-01.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2016, 06:05:50 PM »
Quote from: Titanium R Nevada on September 23, 2016, 06:02:49 PM
Neither will happen, but New Hampshire would theoretically be more likely, since Trump would have to win ME-02 by about 20% to have a chance to win the statewide vote in Maine, since ME-01 is very heavily Democratic.
A recent poll showed him 11 points up in D2 and 11 points down in D1. So, he would only have to win by 12 in that scenario.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2016, 06:07:40 PM »
It's hard to see him making significant inroads in ME-01, though, since it's much more urban and educated, as a whole.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2016, 06:31:51 PM »
ME-2 37% chance to flip
New Hampshire 29% chance to flip
Maine 20% chance to flip
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NHI
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2016, 06:43:13 PM »
NH, of course.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2016, 08:20:50 PM »
Quote from: Chrome on September 23, 2016, 06:05:30 PM
Quote from: Titanium R Nevada on September 23, 2016, 06:02:49 PM
Neither will happen, but New Hampshire would theoretically be more likely, since Trump would have to win ME-02 by about 20% to have a chance to win the statewide vote in Maine, since ME-01 is very heavily Democratic.

That is assuming that he only improves upon Romney in ME-02. He could still decrease the margin in ME-01.
I doubt that. ME-01 is not his sort of crowd. Very upper-class Yankee liberal.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2016, 11:54:16 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 23, 2016, 11:32:41 PM
Maine. Stop trying to make Republican NH happen. It's not going to happen.

Stop trying to make Republican ME (statewide) happen. It's not going to happen.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2016, 05:04:11 AM »
New Hampshire. Maine-at-large is even more unlikely.
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