CBS: Donald Trump ups ad spending to $140M, expands into 3 more states

[Virginiá]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-ups-ad-spending-to-140m-expands-into-3-more-states/

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Battleground New Mexico confirmed!

[President Johnson]

God, he needs to give up on NH (and probably VA as well) already.

... and New Mexico. He isn't winning there.

[ursulahx]

God, he needs to give up on NH (and probably VA as well) already.

... and New Mexico. He isn't winning there.

Obviously hoping Johnson will split the vote.

[Gustaf]

God, he needs to give up on NH (and probably VA as well) already.

... and New Mexico. He isn't winning there.

Obviously hoping Johnson will split the vote.

 Wouldn't New Mexico be one of the most likely states to see Johnson hurt Trump rather than Clinton?  I mean, they're used to him being a Republican after all.

[Eraserhead]

I can't argue with that list of states too much. Maybe Arizona should have been included, maybe not.

I do think the New Mexico spending is in hopes that Johnson gets a ridiculously high percentage in the state and turns things chaotic. Stein could cut a point or two off of Clinton's percentage there as well.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/08/trump-tv-advertising-swing-states-227605

Don't forget he never ponied up the last time he boasted big.

https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/779678841128292352
His campaign has $50M, so someone needs to pony up $ fast.

[PaperKooper]

Looks like good choices. 

[Rand]

He's getting desperate.

[Brittain33]

Good thing this ad time is much more expensive than if he'd bought it months ago.

[Lief 🗽]

lol where is Trump going to get $140 million??

[Ebsy]

He does not have the money for this ad buy. He's literally been letting his ads in the big four states slip this week and now he is going to expand to a bunch of states he isn't even contesting? Running ads in New Mexico for a week isn't going to change anything.

[Tender Branson]

lol where is Trump going to get $140 million??

He has it, sort-of:

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[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Remember when we made fun of Jeb for wasting $130M to lose an election? Sad!

[Virginiá]

He does not have the money for this ad buy. He's literally been letting his ads in the big four states slip this week and now he is going to expand to a bunch of states he isn't even contesting? Running ads in New Mexico for a week isn't going to change anything.

I think it was mentioned earlier that his campaign has around 50 million give or take, but combined with other accounts he has maybe upwards of 90 million. September + October fundraising hauls should be able to fill the gap, but he'll be spending the vast majority his available capital on ads.

Ironically, for the man who claims to make the best deals, he waited to buy ads at a time when they cost more than if he reserved early. Combined with his terrible staffing choices, he's basically the opposite of what he claims to be.

Curious if Team Clinton will up their already-huge buys.

[Ebsy]

I'd wager a guess that a lot of these ads are never run or are cancelled after just a week, eliminating any impact they might have.

[Ebsy]

Also, why does Trump think the RNC is going to allow him to use their money to buy ads? And furthermore, if he depletes his joint accounts for ineffective ads, how is he going to pay for his extremely costly fundraising operation?

[Virginiá]

Also, why does Trump think the RNC is going to allow him to use their money to buy ads? And furthermore, if he depletes his joint accounts for ineffective ads, how is he going to pay for his extremely costly fundraising operation?

I was under the impression the joint account funds (of which account for that 40~ million difference in the 90 mil count) were for the party's GOTV efforts. That 40 millions is from the Victory Fund stuff, right? If so, I recall some of that money not being allowed for campaigning and has to go towards the committee purposes, like legal & building expenses.

If Trump intends to finance it entirely using the campaign money and only some of the joint account money, he'll be incredibly stretched thin and it only works if he brings in at least 45 million in both Sept/Oct and whatever he can the first week of November.

We'll see. Should know for sure in the next 7 days or so, but I imagine his buy ends up being smaller, and/or he cancels some of it later on.

[NOVA Green]

Very good points on how he funds it, and also some obvious questions regarding the choice of targets considering limited resources.

My thought is that his campaign's strategic thought is something like this...

Overperform expectations in the debate and gain 3% in the national polls, bringing the race close to a tie.  Make a huge pitch to what is essentially primarily a small donor base, which has actually been somewhat successful in bringing money in over the past month or two.

If all this is successful then reallocate resources as needed based upon statewide polls/internals in whereever the greatest opportunities are to crack the firewall.

That being said, it's still hard to see how he can afford this all, considering that Florida alone is an extremely expensive state to play in, as well as NoVA, etc.... Ohio also has a ton of media markets, and I believe Philly is relatively expensive as well, so yeah he'll probably have to back out of some of these buys once we have a better idea of the state of the race in the week following the debates.

[Brittain33]

lol where is Trump going to get $140 million??

[NOVA Green]

lol where is Trump going to get $140 million??

Awesome! That made me laugh.... we need more of that on this forum.

[Eraserhead]

lol where is Trump going to get $140 million??

His mob connections ought to be good for something.

[Likely Voter]

It appears they are booking as much space as they can get in hopes that they will raise they money later to pay for it.  This is nothing new, we have seen other campaigns do this, like the Rubio campaign.  If he has a strong debate, they might take in a ton of dough.  They will raise a lot regardless.  But let's say they come up $50m short of target.  Does Trump make up the difference or do they cut back on the spend.   

[Xing]

Please waste money in New Mexico and Michigan!

[NOVA Green]

Please waste money in New Mexico and Michigan!

Not so sure if NM would be a total waste.... relatively cheap media markets, and a state that Republicans have been successful at the statewide level and in case anyone has forgotten, George W. did narrowly win the state back in '04, Gore barely won in 2000.

We haven't seen any legit polls from NM since the PPP poll back in late August at the peak of the Clinton numbers that 538 adjusted to only Clinton +6, which could well indicate this race is much closer than one might expect.

Additionally, for all of the talk about "Latinos disliking Trump" what is often forgotten is that there is a very large population of "Old Spanish" voters that vote more like Anglos (And not infrequently to the Right) and not like the "New Spanish" voters that are heavily 2nd and 3rd generation Americans.

I wrote about this at the time of the Democratic Primaries when Bernie almost won the state, when most on the forum were assuming it was "safe Clinton".

[Seriously?]

He's getting desperate.

How exactly are ad buys in states that are competitive "desperate" exactly? If that were the measuring stick used, all candidates in every election could be labeled as "desperate."

That's what campaigns do. Buy ads in competitive states. If anything, you look to ad buys to see where the internal polls have states close at this stage of the game. It's not "desperation" by any means.

Obviously, there's polling to support the NM buy. The state has been closer than most here have expected and the polling has been pretty uniform, showing a narrow Clinton lead.