NH-01-Normington Petts: Clinton with commanding lead

[MT Treasurer]

Obama won this district by 1 in 2012, despite winning the entire state by 6 points. NH-01 is the more Republican district in NH.

46% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)
10% Others

B-b-but I thought NH was going to be competitive this year?

Link.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Great news! Now lets see some +10 clinton polls for Virgina, Co, Nv, Florida and Ohio! hahaha

[StatesPoll]

Obama won this district by 1 in 2012, despite winning the entire state by 6 points. NH-01 is the more Republican district in NH.

46% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)
10% Others

B-b-but I thought NH was going to be competitive this year?

Link.

very bad poll for TRUMP.

in 2012
CD1: 3 red counties(rockingham,belknap,carroll)
CD2: zero red county

But TRUMP still has a chance in NH, If TRUMP beat Hillary in the 1st debate.

[Eraserhead]

It's really starting to look like Maine might end up closer.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It's really starting to look like Maine might end up closer.

Meme magic.

[Maxwell]

goodbye swing state New Hampshire, we hardly knew ye.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So Obama only won this district by 1. Is Frank Guinta really that bad of a candidate that he couldn't run one point ahead of Mittens?

[Maxwell]

So Obama only won this district by 1. Is Frank Guinta really that bad of a candidate that he couldn't run one point ahead of Mittens?

Guinta did endorse Santorum for President that year I believe. He's a terrible fit for the district and only won because of 2010 and 2014 coat-tails.

[Xing]

Well, this does suggest that Guinta is burnt toast.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why would you poll half a State and not the other half?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why would you poll half a State and not the other half?

Poll commissioned for one House candidate, I expect.

[NOVA Green]

Why would you poll half a State and not the other half?

Poll commissioned for one House candidate, I expect.

Reinforces the concept that NH is rapidly isn't likely to be particularly close this election...

NH has been one of the few bright spots for Clinton state level polling this past week.

[MT Treasurer]

Reinforces the concept that NH is rapidly isn't likely to be particularly close this election...

NH has been one of the few bright spots for Clinton state level polling this past week.

Clinton is tailor-made for NH - a state that is 100% gone for Republicans.

[Figueira]

Well, this does suggest that Guinta is burnt toast.

We already knew that though.

The gubernatorial results are interesting. I posted about them in that thread.

[MT Treasurer]

I also think that NH will have the highest percentage of Romney/Clinton voters of any state. NH is full of White suburban and rural women who rejected Obama for obvious reasons who are going to come out in record-setting numbers to support Clinton.  She's always been very popular in NH among female voters, and there's a solid base of males (43% or so) that the Democrats can count on to vote straight-ticket Democratic in every election.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I also think that NH will have the highest percentage of Romney/Clinton voters of any state. NH is full of White suburban and rural women who rejected Obama for obvious reasons who are going to come out in record-setting numbers to support Clinton.  She's always been very popular in NH among female voters, and there's a solid base of males (43% or so) that the Democrats can count on to vote straight-ticket Democratic in every election.

Plausible reasoning indeed.

[ProudModerate2]

Very nice.
It trump cant get close in this NH district when the race is now tight, I don't think this state is going to happen at all, for the orange-haired clown in 2016.

[Vosem]

So Obama only won this district by 1. Is Frank Guinta really that bad of a candidate that he couldn't run one point ahead of Mittens?

I mean, unlike Trump, Mittens was actually a strong presidential candidate and frequently ran ahead of congressional candidates.

[Hilldog]

Anyone else remember Bush having a 9 point lead in NH around this time in 2004? 

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Anyone else remember Bush having a 9 point lead in NH around this time in 2004? 

Not really. I was 11.

[cinyc]

This is the Boston suburbs/military district.  I do think the mountain district (NH-02) will likely swing to Trump.

What is military about NH-01?  Pease Air Force Base is closed, and the Portsmouth Navy Yard is in Maine.  The Boston suburbs are actually split between NH-01 and NH-02, with those near Nashua in NH-02, and those closer to Portsmouth in NH-01.