ME-02-Normington Petts: Trump +4

[heatcharger]

http://www.rollcall.com/cain-and-poliquin-remain-tied-in-democratic-poll-of-maines-2nd-district/

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 40%

[Xing]

Trump overperforming Poliquin? I'll believe it when I see it.

[Maxwell]

Trump over-performing Poliquin i mean what the hell is going on here

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still not buying this.

[Ronnie]

I think we have to believe the polls at some point, guys.  Considering this is a Dem internal, he might be leading by even more than four.

[Horus]

I don't get the surprise here. ME-02 is extremely white, one of the whitest districts in the country, and, at least by New England standards, extremely uneducated. I don't buy this poll because Trump is ahead of Poliquin, but I'm quite sure he's leading in this district.

[Maxwell]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

[Gass3268]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Perot dos great in Maine while running on similar issues so I guess it's not a yuge surprise.

[JA]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

[NOVA Green]

Although it's an internal, still fits with the other data showing Trump with a narrow lead in ME-02.

I'm still skeptical that Maine is particularly close overall, but Team Trump must be liking some of their internals to throw some of their precious $$$ into advertising in the state.

[Absolution9]

Although it's an internal, still fits with the other data showing Trump with a narrow lead in ME-02.

I'm still skeptical that Maine is particularly close overall, but Team Trump must be liking some of their internals to throw some of their precious $$$ into advertising in the state.

Is this a Republican or Democrat internal?

[NOVA Green]

Although it's an internal, still fits with the other data showing Trump with a narrow lead in ME-02.

I'm still skeptical that Maine is particularly close overall, but Team Trump must be liking some of their internals to throw some of their precious $$$ into advertising in the state.

Is this a Republican or Democrat internal?

Dem internal for the CD-02 congressional race.

[ProudModerate2]

I don't get the surprise here. ME-02 is extremely white, one of the whitest districts in the country, and, at least by New England standards, extremely uneducated. I don't buy this poll because Trump is ahead of Poliquin, but I'm quite sure he's leading in this district.

I agree.
This specific district has trump potential.
No socking surprises here with a trump +4.
So it's approx. a toss-up which makes sense.
Clinton can still win it, and she probably will come November (but it will be close).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Although it's an internal, still fits with the other data showing Trump with a narrow lead in ME-02.

I'm still skeptical that Maine is particularly close overall, but Team Trump must be liking some of their internals to throw some of their precious $$$ into advertising in the state.

Is this a Republican or Democrat internal?

Dem internal for the CD-02 congressional race.

538 quoted the Democratic candidate for ME-02 saying something along the lines of "I don't care if Hillary wins the district.  I'm asking voters to vote for me, not her".  That sounds like a red state Democrat trying to run away from the nominee.  I think the assumption is that that district will go to Trump unless this turns into a Clinton landslide.

[Absolution9]

I don't get the surprise here. ME-02 is extremely white, one of the whitest districts in the country, and, at least by New England standards, extremely uneducated. I don't buy this poll because Trump is ahead of Poliquin, but I'm quite sure he's leading in this district.

I agree.
This specific district has trump potential.
No socking surprises here with a trump +4.
So it's approx. a toss-up which makes sense.
Clinton can still win it, and she probably will come November (but it will be close).

I would say as of right now in the campaign this district strongly leans toward Trump.  This is a Dem internal so usually you add about 2 points to compensate and the last two polls of this district were Trump + 5, +10.

[Xing]

My disbelief of this poll isn't that it shows Trump ahead, it's that he's overperforming Poliquin. If he really does, then ME-02 officially is New West Virginia.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

This is the most depressing thing I've read all day and you're probably completely right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

This is the most depressing thing I've read all day and you're probably completely right.

Well, rural New England+NY's North Country is the only area that has resisted this trend over the past 20 years. In fact, it's a lot more Democratic now than it used to be not so long ago. It's possible that this trend will begin reversing itself in 2016, but I still have reasonable hopes that this one holdout will continue resisting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

This is the most depressing thing I've read all day and you're probably completely right.

Well, rural New England+NY's North Country is the only area that has resisted this trend over the past 20 years. In fact, it's a lot more Democratic now than it used to be not so long ago. It's possible that this trend will begin reversing itself in 2016, but I still have reasonable hopes that this one holdout will continue resisting.

Well its about damn time, I say. I hope it reaches Vermont in 10 years or so.

[afleitch]

So the US will move to a UK urban-suburban-rural split?

[JA]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

This is the most depressing thing I've read all day and you're probably completely right.

Well, rural New England+NY's North Country is the only area that has resisted this trend over the past 20 years. In fact, it's a lot more Democratic now than it used to be not so long ago. It's possible that this trend will begin reversing itself in 2016, but I still have reasonable hopes that this one holdout will continue resisting.

Well its about damn time, I say. I hope it reaches Vermont in 10 years or so.

It won't. Upstate New York and Northern Maine are fundamentally different from Vermont. The latter is significantly more educated (has one of the nation's highest postsecondary degree rates) and has an economy better adapted to the 21st century. There may be a slight trend R, but that'd be attributable solely to their incredibly low minority population.

The most interesting trends to watch within the Northeast alone will be the trend R in central and southern Pennsylvania, rural Maryland, southern Delaware, upstate New York, northern New Hampshire, northern Maine, and possibly northeastern Vermont, eastern Connecticut, and western Rhode Island. In contrast, the areas trending D will likely be the metros (urban core and suburbs) of Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Bridgeport, New Haven, Hartford, Providence, Boston, Worcester, Manchester, Portland, and the university towns. The easiest way to distinguish which county will trend D or R is to evaluate its current trend, postsecondary educational attainment, and minority population.

[JA]

So the US will move to a UK urban-suburban-rural split?

Generally, yes. The future of evaluating the demographics of US politics will be postsecondary education white + minority + secular = Democrat, while high school education white + Christianity = Republican. States that are rural, yet have a highly educated and secular population (Vermont), will continue to be Democratic. The most fundamental change is actually the complete detachment of the Democratic Party from its New Deal foundation, which had begun decades ago, but is only now becoming complete as they develop a new, solidified coalition. The last party to have a coalition of a similar demographic makeup (most educated + minorities) was the Republican Party of Nelson Rockefeller. Just ponder that...

I'd also add that I fully expect Clinton to govern within the political tradition of the Rockefeller Republican Party (uncomfortably close to Wall Street and interventionist, very internationalist-oriented and supportive of utilizing the federal government for righting social injustice). But there will still be some left-oriented reforms, assuming she can push them through Congress.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

This is the most depressing thing I've read all day and you're probably completely right.

Well, rural New England+NY's North Country is the only area that has resisted this trend over the past 20 years. In fact, it's a lot more Democratic now than it used to be not so long ago. It's possible that this trend will begin reversing itself in 2016, but I still have reasonable hopes that this one holdout will continue resisting.

Well its about damn time, I say. I hope it reaches Vermont in 10 years or so.

It won't. Upstate New York and Northern Maine are fundamentally different from Vermont. The latter is significantly more educated (has one of the nation's highest postsecondary degree rates) and has an economy better adapted to the 21st century. There may be a slight trend R, but that'd be attributable solely to their incredibly low minority population.

The most interesting trends to watch within the Northeast alone will be the trend R in central and southern Pennsylvania, rural Maryland, southern Delaware, upstate New York, northern New Hampshire, northern Maine, and possibly northeastern Vermont, eastern Connecticut, and western Rhode Island. In contrast, the areas trending D will likely be the metros (urban core and suburbs) of Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Bridgeport, New Haven, Hartford, Providence, Boston, Worcester, Manchester, Portland, and the university towns. The easiest way to distinguish which county will trend D or R is to evaluate its current trend, postsecondary educational attainment, and minority population.

I don't expect religion to remain a factor going forward. These Maine voters aren't going for Trump because they attend church every week, many probably don't, are secular or just lapsed Catholics. If anything the movement away from religious issues and towards trade and immigration are the reason why they are voting for Trump. And lets not forget that as much as coalition you mention for Rockefeller, these types of voters in Maine, Iowa and elsewhere were also a part of the Republican coalition at one point and even ancestrally so, the partial inheritence the party received at its founding from the Jacksonian coalition.

If the Clintonian Democratic party becomes and continues to be interventionist and the Republicans continue to move away from that and more towards a restrained foreign policy, there is no way that Vermont doesn't start trending Republican regardless of educational attainment, especially with future candidates who are far better at coming off as less offensive to well most people (but especially the college educated) than Donald Trump does.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If Trump wins here, expect the next Democrat-controlled state government in Maine to revert the state back to winner-take-all.

(I still highly doubt it will be close in the end, though.)