NH-1 - Normington Petts - Sununu +5

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

47/42. Pretty good considering this is a D internal.

[MT Treasurer]

Van Ostern still has lots of room to grow because most undecideds are Democratic-leaning voters. Republicans can win this one, but it's going to be very difficult.

[Figueira]

Sununu was the executive councilor for a district that was mostly contained in this district, while Van Ostern was the executive councilor for a district that was mostly contained in the other district. So one would normally expect Sununu to overperform here, in what's already an R+1 district.

I'd guess that this would suggest a lead for Sununu statewide, but a small one. But it's hard to tell just from this information.

[Heisenberg]

Odd that it polled only half of the state. This district is not as Democratic as the other one, and his brother was Congressman for the district before becoming Senator, and his executive council district is based on this side of the state, so not surprising.

[Xing]

Hmmm, Sununu might just poll this off.

[Xing]

Hmmm, Sununu might just poll this off.

A 5-point lead in NH-01 is very underwhelming, especially since Van Ostern is expected to crush him in NH-02. The undecideds are likely Democratic-leaning, and Van Ostern's numbers have lots of room to grow. If Sununu wins, it will be by less than 2 points.

This same poll showed Hillary up 8, though, so if Sununu is overperforming Trump by that much, he might have this.

[Figueira]

Hmmm, Sununu might just poll this off.

A 5-point lead in NH-01 is very underwhelming, especially since Van Ostern is expected to crush him in NH-02. The undecideds are likely Democratic-leaning, and Van Ostern's numbers have lots of room to grow. If Sununu wins, it will be by less than 2 points.

This same poll showed Hillary up 8, though, so if Sununu is overperforming Trump by that much, he might have this.

True enough. We'll see.

[smoltchanov]

Sununu is exactly the type of "non-threatening Republican", that can win here. He is even pro-choice (yes, with restrictions, but - minor), which becomes a rarity even in North-East. So - it will be interesting until the end...