NH, VA, ME, IA and NV - how do you see those states trending in the future?

[MT Treasurer]

How do you see those states trending in the future?

My guess:

- New Hampshire will quickly become another Vermont, if it isn't already.
- Virginia will basically turn into Maryland 2.0 and become an inelastic 56D/44R state or so.
- Maine will become the "real" New Hampshire in the sense that it will be the only competitive state in the Northeast. ME-01 should remain Democratic, though.
- Nevada will be more similar to FL than NM and should remain competitive if the GOP can max out the White vote and make inroads with minorities.
- Iowa will turn into Missouri 2.0.

[RINO Tom]

How do you see those states trending in the future?

My guess:

- New Hampshire will quickly become another Vermont, if it isn't already.
- Virginia will basically turn into Maryland 2.0 and become an inelastic 56D/44R state or so.
- Maine will become the "real" New Hampshire in the sense that it will be the only competitive state in the Northeast. ME-01 should remain Democratic, though.
- Nevada will be more similar to FL than NM and should remain competitive if the GOP can max out the White vote and make inroads with minorities.
- Iowa will turn into Missouri 2.0.

Not compatible.

[Person Man]

How do you see those states trending in the future?

My guess:

- New Hampshire will quickly become another Vermont, if it isn't already.
- Virginia will basically turn into Maryland 2.0 and become an inelastic 56D/44R state or so.
- Maine will become the "real" New Hampshire in the sense that it will be the only competitive state in the Northeast. ME-01 should remain Democratic, though.
- Nevada will be more similar to FL than NM and should remain competitive if the GOP can max out the White vote and make inroads with minorities.
- Iowa will turn into Missouri 2.0.

This but I think AZ and NV will stay a hard nut to crack for different reasons than in FL. All these states are older and seem to provide more opportunities for Hispanics to assimilate though I wouldn't really consider Cubans Hispanic the way I do Mexicans, Central Americans, Hispaniolians, and Puerto Ricans.

[Heisenberg]

NH: Turning into another Vermont.
VA: The GOP will run up big margins in districts 6 and 9, do well (but not as good) in 1, 2, and 5, but will get swamped in the north. I think the trend is slowing down, for the next decade or so it will remain competitive with good candidates, but will end up being likely D in the late 2020's, and safe D by the early 2030's.
ME: Becoming more Republican, ME-01 will be less Democratic, ME-02 will become Republican-leaning.
IA: Missouri 2.0
NV: Should remain competitive for a while. I can see the GOP max out with whites (outside Clark County, including Washoe County) and making inroads with Hispanics. Republicans have done pretty well here in recent midterms, including 2006.

[Person Man]

NH: Turning into another Vermont.
VA: The GOP will run up big margins in districts 6 and 9, do well (but not as good) in 1, 2, and 5, but will get swamped in the north. I think the trend is slowing down, for the next decade or so it will remain competitive with good candidates, but will end up being likely D in the late 2020's, and safe D by the early 2030's.
ME: Becoming more Republican, ME-01 will be less Democratic, ME-02 will become Republican-leaning.
IA: Missouri 2.0
NV: Should remain competitive for a while. I can see the GOP max out with whites (outside Clark County, including Washoe County) and making inroads with Hispanics. Republicans have done pretty well here in recent midterms, including 2006.

Or it could be a good machine keeping both FL and NV close..

[Xing]

NH: Will remain Democratic-leaning, and Republicans will only be successful under favorable conditions.
VA: Will fall off of the battleground map, barring a re-alignment.
ME: ME-02 may become fertile ground for Republicans (while it still exists,) but unless they start winning it by double digits, they won't come close to winning ME overall, though moderate Republicans may continue to have success in downballot races.
IA: Is probably going to go the way of MO.
NV: Republicans will continue to be duped by close poll numbers, and shocked on election day when it goes Democratic by safe margins. After each election that isn't a Republican wave, when Democrats easily win, people will think "Hmmm, NV went for the Democrat by 5/7/10/16 points, maybe it's starting to trend Democratic..." Until a poll shows a tight race two years later, and then "OMG! NEVADA'S A TOSS-UP AND ANYONE WHO THINKS OTHERWISE IS DELUSIONAL! I DON'T CARE ABOUT PAST RESULTS, THIS IS A NEW YEAR AND NEVADA IS DEFINITELY GOING TO BE CLOSE THIS YEAR!"Will become more Republican than NE-03 because muh uneducated whites and Trump's Casinoresortmachine™.

[Spark]

NH: D
VA: D
ME- R
IA- R
NV- R

[Hilldog]

All but VA will trend to the right.

[libertpaulian]

All but VA will trend to the right.

[NHI]

NH: Pure Tossup.
VA: Trending Dem.
ME: Trending GOP
IA: Trending GOP
NV: Tossup

[RFayette]

NH: Pure Tossup.
VA: Trending Dem.
ME: Trending GOP
IA: Trending GOP
NV: Tossup

[Free Bird]

NH: Pure Tossup.
VA: Trending Dem.
ME: Trending GOP
IA: Trending GOP
NV: Tossup

OH: Gravitating ever so slightly R

This added to the above post is the correct answer. New Hampshire is the new early 2000s Ohio.

[libertpaulian]

NH: Pure Tossup.
VA: Trending Dem.
ME: Trending GOP
IA: Trending GOP
NV: Tossup

OH: Gravitating ever so slightly R

This added to the above post is the correct answer. New Hampshire is the new early 2000s Ohio.

I'd say the same of Michigan.

[blacknwhiterose]

NH: Don't see the VT parallel.  It has rural whites trending to Trump, tax-evading Masshole refugees, and the free staters.
VA: What Pennsylvania was for many years.  Inelastic light-blue-but-blue state anchored by a populous, liberal corner of the state.
ME: trending Republican
IA: following MO, AR, and LA in that Mississippi border state Democratic collapse.
NV: Like it's western neighbor Colorado, could become a real wild child card with California expats of various stripes pouring across the border, some conservative, some more leftist.  Republicans should be able to make gains with more Americanized, English-first language Hispanics.

[The_Doctor]

Over the next two decades?

NH - GOP
VA - DNC
ME - GOP
IA - Swing
NV - Dem

[JustinTimeCuber]

Sanders was polling +20 against Trump in NH, just fyi.

[RINO Tom]

I have no idea where the parties will go coalition-wise by then, so I just can't be sure.  I am inclined to believe that between 1) Democrats coming to terms with just how many Obama voters weren't on board for the reason of social issues (I think this came as a true shock to many) and 2) a continually diversifying America forcing the GOP's hand on being more inclusive of minorities will lead to an America where it simply makes more electoral sense for the Republicans to appeal to natural conservatives of all races (strict moralists, traditionalists, business types, affluent voters, the very religious, those most concerned with national security, those who live in newer suburbs/towns, etc.) rather than keep a band of largely White voters who don't agree on all of that stuff together, causing the Democrats to attract "liberals" of all races in return (the economically disadvantaged, public sector employees, academic types, people who live in older, more established cities/suburbs/towns, environmentalists, people weary of private business, etc.), though I think this might not happen until closer to 2050.

[Pericles]

New Hampshire: Trump did well there due to large numbers of non college-educated whites and there are very few non-whites there, it will trend more Republican as the GOP seeks to max out the white vote(following from their successful strategy this year)
VA: Virginia will become a solidly Democrat state, due to its changing demographics and that Trump's GOP is less attractive to the college-educated whites in the state.
ME: Maine, with lots of non college-educated whites and very few non-whites, will continue to trend R. It already has a GOP governor and a GOP Senator, and ME-02 went to Trump by double digit margins.
IA: Iowa's demographics were never a god fit for the modern Democratic Party, and 2016 was a correction with a solid Trump win. The state, with two Republican Senators and a Republican Governor, is already quite Republican. In 2020, in a 50-50 race, Trump will likely win it by double digits.
NV: With changing demographics and high Hispanic population, Nevada will trend Democratic and it is steadily becoming more Democratic than the nation.

[RINO Tom]

I have no idea where the parties will go coalition-wise by then, so I just can't be sure.  I am inclined to believe that between 1) Democrats coming to terms with just how many Obama voters weren't on board for the reason of social issues (I think this came as a true shock to many) and 2) a continually diversifying America forcing the GOP's hand on being more inclusive of minorities will lead to an America where it simply makes more electoral sense for the Republicans to appeal to natural conservatives of all races (strict moralists, traditionalists, business types, affluent voters, the very religious, those most concerned with national security, those who live in newer suburbs/towns, etc.) rather than keep a band of largely White voters who don't agree on all of that stuff together, causing the Democrats to attract "liberals" of all races in return (the economically disadvantaged, public sector employees, academic types, people who live in older, more established cities/suburbs/towns, environmentalists, people weary of private business, etc.), though I think this might not happen until closer to 2050.

Wrong on all counts and off-topic.  As to the topic:

NH: will swing back and forth with no obvious trend.
VA: Obviously trending left.
ME: Slight trend right.
IA: Obviously trending right.
NV: slight trend left.

1) How can something where I hypothesize two diametrically opposed outcomes be wrong on all accounts?  LOL

2) I thought you had all of my monikers™ and me on ignore?

3) You shouldn't be so elitist about how *smart* you are and *stupid* everyone else is if you're too dyslexic to spell my username in the right order.

4) I thought you quit this forum because none of us had jobs and we were all ... well ... me.

5) We are all me, you haven't talked to a non-moniker since you've been back.  Just remember when you log in that you are literally coming to this forum to converse with me, because I'm EVERYWHERE.  You can't hide, NSV, even in deep sea blue Virginny.

[RINO Tom]

I have no idea where the parties will go coalition-wise by then, so I just can't be sure.  I am inclined to believe that between 1) Democrats coming to terms with just how many Obama voters weren't on board for the reason of social issues (I think this came as a true shock to many) and 2) a continually diversifying America forcing the GOP's hand on being more inclusive of minorities will lead to an America where it simply makes more electoral sense for the Republicans to appeal to natural conservatives of all races (strict moralists, traditionalists, business types, affluent voters, the very religious, those most concerned with national security, those who live in newer suburbs/towns, etc.) rather than keep a band of largely White voters who don't agree on all of that stuff together, causing the Democrats to attract "liberals" of all races in return (the economically disadvantaged, public sector employees, academic types, people who live in older, more established cities/suburbs/towns, environmentalists, people weary of private business, etc.), though I think this might not happen until closer to 2050.

Wrong on all counts and off-topic.  As to the topic:

NH: will swing back and forth with no obvious trend.
VA: Obviously trending left.
ME: Slight trend right.
IA: Obviously trending right.
NV: slight trend left.

1) How can something where I hypothesize two diametrically opposed outcomes be wrong on all accounts?  LOL

2) I thought you had all of my monikers™ and me on ignore?

3) You shouldn't be so elitist about how *smart* you are and *stupid* everyone else is if you're too dyslexic to spell my username in the right order.

4) I thought you quit this forum because none of us had jobs and we were all ... well ... me.

5) We are all me, you haven't talked to a non-moniker since you've been back.  Just remember when you log in that you are literally coming to this forum to converse with me, because I'm EVERYWHERE.  You can't hide, NSV, even in deep sea blue Virginny.

I'm also mildly amused that I'm gone for two weeks, post a response and you reply within 20 minutes.  Do you have any hobbies outside of this forum?

Only mildly?  And other than going to work (GASP!), watching the Illini, working out, cleaning my house and drinking with my friends, nah, going on the internet takes up most of the rest of the time.  Usually check this site at work, too.  Thanks for your concern.

[RINO Tom]

I have no idea where the parties will go coalition-wise by then, so I just can't be sure.  I am inclined to believe that between 1) Democrats coming to terms with just how many Obama voters weren't on board for the reason of social issues (I think this came as a true shock to many) and 2) a continually diversifying America forcing the GOP's hand on being more inclusive of minorities will lead to an America where it simply makes more electoral sense for the Republicans to appeal to natural conservatives of all races (strict moralists, traditionalists, business types, affluent voters, the very religious, those most concerned with national security, those who live in newer suburbs/towns, etc.) rather than keep a band of largely White voters who don't agree on all of that stuff together, causing the Democrats to attract "liberals" of all races in return (the economically disadvantaged, public sector employees, academic types, people who live in older, more established cities/suburbs/towns, environmentalists, people weary of private business, etc.), though I think this might not happen until closer to 2050.

Wrong on all counts and off-topic.  As to the topic:

NH: will swing back and forth with no obvious trend.
VA: Obviously trending left.
ME: Slight trend right.
IA: Obviously trending right.
NV: slight trend left.

1) How can something where I hypothesize two diametrically opposed outcomes be wrong on all accounts?  LOL

2) I thought you had all of my monikers™ and me on ignore?

3) You shouldn't be so elitist about how *smart* you are and *stupid* everyone else is if you're too dyslexic to spell my username in the right order.

4) I thought you quit this forum because none of us had jobs and we were all ... well ... me.

5) We are all me, you haven't talked to a non-moniker since you've been back.  Just remember when you log in that you are literally coming to this forum to converse with me, because I'm EVERYWHERE.  You can't hide, NSV, even in deep sea blue Virginny.

I'm also mildly amused that I'm gone for two weeks, post a response and you reply within 20 minutes.  Do you have any hobbies outside of this forum?

Only mildly?  And other than going to work (GASP!), watching the Illini, working out, cleaning my house and drinking with my friends, nah, going on the internet takes up most of the rest of the time.  Usually check this site at work, too.  Thanks for your concern.

Theories of Western Civilization class =/= work.  I wouldn't label it a concern.

LOL, I would be super entertained to meet the person you imagine me to be.

[Xing]

Alright, I'll modify my answer a bit.

NH: Hard to tell. If Democrats double down on identity politics, I'll probably trend a bit R. If they go in a more populist direction, it'll stay where it is, or maybe trend a bit D.

VA: Probably heading to the left, but it's still at least somewhat of a battleground.

ME: It trended sharply Republican last year, but I'm not yet convinced that it wasn't somewhat of a fluke, kind of like the inverse of Montana in 2008. Unless Democrats don't change their tune at all, I'd be surprised not to see it swing back to the Democrats a bit in 2020. As for the long-term trend, I think it will continue to lean Democratic at the national level, while being more favorable for Republicans in down ballot races.

IA: Definitely trending R, and it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for Democrats to reverse that trend. I could see Democrats winning some races there under the right conditions, but it does seem to be going the same way as MO/AR.

NV: It's not trending Democratic as quickly as I thought, but I maintain that it's going to continue to be a tough state for Republicans. I don't think it's a viable state for Trump in 2020 unless he's popular. While he could do a bit better among Latinos there, I think his performance in the rural counties will weaken. If Republicans can hold on to one of the statewide races there in 2018, it's still a swing state. If they lose both the Senate and Gubernatorial race, it's probably close to being gone for them.

[ClassiCoolidge]

New Hampshire- I think NH will continue to be a swing state. Trump did better than McCain, Romney, and Bush in 2004. Only way it could become less competitive is if NH becomes a Vermont.

Virginia-This one seems to be getting harder for Republicans to win. More and more people are moving to Northern Virginia which is becoming more and more liberal. I'd say it's a lean Democrat state.

Maine-With the exception of Portland, Maine is becoming more conservative. Their governor isn't a total RINO and the state itself was very close in 2016. Trump also won CD2.

Iowa-I agree that it's becoming Missouri 2.0. Really the only very liberal part is Johnson County. Even Polk County was barely over 50%.

Nevada-I think this is still competitive because of Washoe County. I think whoever carries Washoe wins the whole state.