State Leg Predictions

[publicunofficial]

I definitely think Dems pick up the WA Senate and hold the House. That's the only race I can comment on with any authority.

[Frodo]

Democratic Pickups:
Arizona Senate (surprise!)
California Assembly 2/3 Vote
Colorado Senate
Nevada Assembly
New Hampshire House
New Mexico House

Republican Pickups:
Georigia 2/3 Vote
Illinois Senate Veto-retention
Kentucky House
Maine House
Washington House


The Washington Senate I think will remain R and I think they will either tie or bring it to a GOP majority in the House. They have some races there that balance out the Trump effect such as SoS, Treasurer, and State Auditor that will keep many from being able to vote straight ticket.

As for Maine, I think the Trump effect in a Presidential year in ME-02 will be too much, the GOP could get enough seats to take the House albeit a small majority. As for Kentucky, I think the down the ballot effect of Trump could be too great for Stumbo this time. The GOP can take back the 2/3 vote in GA I think with picking up an R+8 seat they lost in a special earlier last year and the Illinois Senate could give Gov. Rauner some power in Illinois with the GOP running unopposed to take an R+8 Senate seat there.

As for the Democrats, I think Colorado and New Mexico are self-explanatory. In California I don't think the Democrats will have enough power to get their numbers to 2/3 in the Senate (I think the GOP holds out there), and for the Assembly there are enough seats where I think it is possible. I think the GOP will hold the State Senate in NV but lose to Assembly, not that it will change Gov. Sandoval's operating. In NH the lean of the state in this election should give the state house back to the Democrats in the flip-flop game we have seen since 2008.

Arizona I think will give us a shocker, I think Arizona is going to give the Senate to the Democrats. The Democrats are already set to pick up 1 seat in the 18-12 GOP Chamber. If Trump loses the state I'd say the chances are 50% that the Senate is given to the Democrats or it is tied for two years.

I pretty much agree with all of these.  Keep in mind that in heavily Hispanic states, geography and voter registration rates actually give Democrats a natural advantage.  One thing I don't agree with is Georgia.  Even if that seat flips back, I think something else will give in the ATL suburbs to keep Dems at or above their current numbers.  

Why?  Wouldn't Trump's claims that the system (and the election) being rigged depress turnout among those the GOP most need to get out and vote, namely the white working class?  Particularly those who have sat out elections in the past?  

[Mr.Phips]

I definitely think Dems pick up the WA Senate and hold the House. That's the only race I can comment on with any authority.

Can Republicans really keep gaining seats in the Washington House?  They have gained seats in the chamber in every election since 2006.

[publicunofficial]

I definitely think Dems pick up the WA Senate and hold the House. That's the only race I can comment on with any authority.

Can Republicans really keep gaining seats in the Washington House?  They have gained seats in the chamber in every election since 2006.

There's definitely a scenario where Republicans are destroyed downballot in King County, but make gains in the Southwest (Cowlitz, Clark, Pacific counties)

[Nyvin]

These are the only chambers I've read about at all:

Nevada House - Likely Dem
Nevada Senate - Tossup

New Hampshire House - Lean Dem
New Hampshire Senate - Tossup/Tilt GOP

California Assembly - Likely Dem Super-majority
California Senate - Tossup Dem Super-majority (only because there's only 5 held GOP seats this up for election this year...otherwise it'd be likely Dem)

Colorado House - Lean Dem
Colorado Senate - Tossup/Tilt Dem

[Frodo]

In case anyone is interested in the power struggle over the last legislative chamber in the South still controlled by Democrats:

Kentucky Democrats, Republicans Pull Out All The Stops In Fight Over State House

By Ryland Barton
October 31, 2016

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[Bandit3 the Worker]

In case anyone is interested in the power struggle over the last legislative chamber in the South still controlled by Democrats:

Kentucky Democrats, Republicans Pull Out All The Stops In Fight Over State House

By Ryland Barton
October 31, 2016

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I wouldn't accept the results if the GOP did take control of the House.

My relationship partner has said it would be against her religion to have to follow the GOP's policies. We're supposed to have freedom of religion, but the Republicans deny it to anyone who dissents from their dominionist program.

Whatever our beliefs, it is our duty to fight the Kentucky GOP.

For what it's worth, the Republican candidate in our district dropped out of the race, leaving the Democratic incumbent unopposed.

[mds32]

The closeness of Nevada right now is making me think the GOP holds the State Senate.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Surprised TNVolunteer hasn't popped in to say the NH Senate and House are dead certs to flip to Democrats, and the Republicans will be left at Hawaii levels.

[Frodo]

The last bulwark of the Democratic South, the Kentucky House, has fallen to GOP control, with even the Speaker, Greg Stumbo, losing his seat along with sixteen other Democrats, giving Republicans a majority of 64 seats.  

Oh, and the GOP margin in the West Virginia Senate increased by four, giving them a 22 to 12 majority.

The Arkansas GOP also expanded their majority in the House chamber by I think 9, giving them over 70 seats.

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections_results,_2016

[smoltchanov]

The last bulwark of the Democratic South, the Kentucky House, has fallen to GOP control, with even the Speaker, Greg Stumbo, losing his seat along with sixteen other Democrats, giving Republicans a majority of 64 seats. 

Oh, and the GOP margin in the West Virginia Senate increased by four, giving them a 22 to 12 majority.

The Arkansas GOP also expanded their majority in the House chamber by I think 5, giving them over 70 seats.

As happened in many other places: essentially a rebellion of small-city and rural America against perceived "establishment and elite". And, at the same time, hopes that well-to-do suburbanites will visiously go against Trump appeared to be exaggerated. They did, but not at the expected extent... Democrats lost Minnesota's state Senate too - exactly because of heavy decline of "rural economical populism".... And look at annihilating numbers in North Dakota - not long ago a citadel of rural populism too (and for a long time - even in Republican party). You may also look at rural South - small rural Liberty county in Florida's Panhandle still has 75% Democratic registration (down from 85% not long ago, but still ...), and almost alll Democratic local officials. Hillary failed to get even 20% there...

[windjammer]

So,
Republicans won:
- MN senate (Republicans now have a 1 seat majority)
- Ky House (Republicans now have a 65-35 majority)
- IA senate (Republicans now have a 29-21 majority)


Democrats won:
-NM house (38-32 now)
- NV senate (democrats have now 1 seat majority)
- NV house (democrats now have 27-15 majority)

Then there are some special cases:
- In WA senate democrats picked up one seat, now they have technically a 25-24 majority but one dem senator will caucuse with republicans, so republicans will still control the chamber.
- In NY senate democrats will pick up one seat: 33-30 majority now but with independent democrats who will caucus with the GOP, republicans will still control this chamber.


Did I miss anything else?

 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Alaska house has fallen to a Democrat-Independent Republican coalition. The GOP have forced ties in the Delaware and Connecticut Senates.

[windjammer]

The Alaska house has fallen to a Democrat-Independent Republican coalition. The GOP have forced ties in the Delaware and Connecticut Senates.

In Connecticut democrats will still control the chamber considering the Lt gov, who is dem, breaks the tie if necessary.
In Delaware, same thing, the Lt governor breaks the tie if necessary, so democrats will still control the senate. The Lt Governor was previously a state senator so this is 10-10 with 1 vacancy (her seat).
Obama won her seat by big margins, so Delaware democrats should still be able to control before and after the special election.

[muon2]

The Dems no longer have a veto-proof majority in the IL House. It was tenuous at best before, with a couple of Dems often switching to sustain vetoes. Now it is a clear majority, but well short of a supermajority. The IL Sen remains a Dem supermajority.