State Leg Predictions
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KingSweden
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« on: September 24, 2016, 05:29:51 PM »

What state legislative houses do you think flip this year and in which direction? By how many seats?

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2016, 06:02:20 PM »

Colorado Senate, Nevada Senate/Assembly, New Hampshire Senate/House, Minnesota House, New Mexico House, and Washington Senate will all flip to the Democrats.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 12:39:35 AM »

Depends on results of Presidential race too. Say, if Clinton wins by 5% (or more) - approximately those listed above. If by 2% - about half ot them (for example - latest forecast about New Hampshire House on "Miscellany Blue" is modest - 207D and 193R. It was substantially more generous to Democrats recently - up to  about 250-150)
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rbt48
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2016, 08:25:47 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2016, 08:28:00 PM by rbt48 »

I'd expect Republicans to gain legislative seats (both chambers) in Arkansas (one Senate and 4 House), Illinois (3 Senate, 2 House), and West Virginia (3 Senate, 4 House), and the Kentucky House (3 to 5 seats).
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Virginiá
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2016, 09:58:29 PM »


If not in 2014, why now? With same day registration in effect in what may be at least a mediocre-to-high turnout election, why would Republicans gain now? I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong, but just curious.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2016, 10:00:37 PM »

Some Good News For Dems For A Change: Trump Could Cost GOP A Ton Of State Legislatures

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/2016-state-legislature-elections_us_57e59d50e4b0e28b2b541d62

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Just in case anyone was interested in reading someone's rundown of each competitive chamber. Republicans are quite overextended this cycle (imo), so I see a decent number of gains from Democrats.
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Green Line
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2016, 10:46:27 PM »


If not in 2014, why now? With same day registration in effect in what may be at least a mediocre-to-high turnout election, why would Republicans gain now? I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong, but just curious.

Some key retirements in red districts, and Rauner has transferred his 2014 statewide campaign to the state party.  They're running candidates in swing districs which they didnt do in the past and Rauner has given thousands of dollars to the GOP committee.  I don't expect big gains but Im wouldnt be suprised to see GOP gains of 1-2
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2016, 02:28:20 PM »

I think the Kentucky House will be 54-46 Democratic. There's 2 seats the Republicans will almost certainly lose, but I'm sure they'll gain an open seat back somewhere (in a rural area).
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2016, 03:53:43 PM »

I think the Kentucky House will be 54-46 Democratic.

Smiley

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Oh well. Esy come, easy go.
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2016, 08:42:01 PM »


If not in 2014, why now? With same day registration in effect in what may be at least a mediocre-to-high turnout election, why would Republicans gain now? I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong, but just curious.

A federal judge today threw out the same day registration in IL for this year. After the 2014 election in lame duck the Dems changed it to require precinct-based registration in the big (ie Dem-leaning) counties, but nowhere else. The judge issued an injunction based on the equal protection claims of the plaintiffs.
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rbt48
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2016, 09:04:01 PM »


If not in 2014, why now? With same day registration in effect in what may be at least a mediocre-to-high turnout election, why would Republicans gain now? I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong, but just curious.
I don't have any special knowledge of the races in Illinois.  But, Democrats have 65% of the IL Senate seats and over 60% of the State House seats and I feel they are overextended.  Unless the districts are really Gerrymandered, and without Obama on the ballot, it just seems natural for a small trend in the GOPs favor.  Furthermore, I think that only half the State Senate was up for election in 2014.  Perhaps the half that is up this year has a few favorable opportunities for the Republicans that were elusive with Obama at the top of the ticket four years ago. 
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Virginiá
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2016, 10:45:32 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2016, 10:48:37 PM by Virginia »

A federal judge today threw out the same day registration in IL for this year. After the 2014 election in lame duck the Dems changed it to require precinct-based registration in the big (ie Dem-leaning) counties, but nowhere else. The judge issued an injunction based on the equal protection claims of the plaintiffs.

Wow, I really wasn't expecting them to throw it out. I was thinking more along the lines of expanding it to all polling places across the state, though admittedly I'm not sure that is even feasible on such short notice. I suppose that serves Democrats right - they should have mandated SDR at all polling places statewide. I seriously doubt that no one raised this issue when the bill was working its way through.

Apparently (according to media), people can still register the same day, but only at other locations and not polling places.

However, I don't quite understand this. How are states allowed to offer different early voting hours/days (like in FL), but Illinois can't offer same-day registration in a similar fashion? According to that document, counties are actually not prohibited from enacting SDR - they could if they wanted, similar to how various states like North Carolina and Florida allow counties to change early voting hours/days. It doesn't really add up for me.

On a cynical note, I really wouldn't be surprised if Rauner refuses to sign any bill modifying this law, just so he can prevent Democrats from expanding it to polling places before 2018.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2016, 11:23:39 PM »

I don't have any special knowledge of the races in Illinois.  But, Democrats have 65% of the IL Senate seats and over 60% of the State House seats and I feel they are overextended.  Unless the districts are really Gerrymandered, and without Obama on the ballot, it just seems natural for a small trend in the GOPs favor.  Furthermore, I think that only half the State Senate was up for election in 2014.  Perhaps the half that is up this year has a few favorable opportunities for the Republicans that were elusive with Obama at the top of the ticket four years ago. 

Democrats actually have room to spare in the State Senate in regards to their super-majority. The State House I assume is most important this cycle. Democrats currently only have a bare super-majority, with 1 of the House Reps. apparently breaking ranks and causing trouble with Rauner (he got primaried and lost, iirc, thanks to Obama). The objective for Madigan, I imagine, would be to try and expand the State House majority a seat or two so they can begin bypassing Rauner.

In regards to Obama & the ticket, Democrats were able to hold their majorities in 2014, save for 1 State Senate seat. I'm not sure how higher turnout would affect Republicans in various districts, but I don't think Obama not being on the ticket will be critical here. Might Trump's weakness in suburbs (I assume he is weak in IL like other states) hurt Republican-held seats in such areas?
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muon2
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2016, 07:20:23 AM »

I don't have any special knowledge of the races in Illinois.  But, Democrats have 65% of the IL Senate seats and over 60% of the State House seats and I feel they are overextended.  Unless the districts are really Gerrymandered, and without Obama on the ballot, it just seems natural for a small trend in the GOPs favor.  Furthermore, I think that only half the State Senate was up for election in 2014.  Perhaps the half that is up this year has a few favorable opportunities for the Republicans that were elusive with Obama at the top of the ticket four years ago. 

Democrats actually have room to spare in the State Senate in regards to their super-majority. The State House I assume is most important this cycle. Democrats currently only have a bare super-majority, with 1 of the House Reps. apparently breaking ranks and causing trouble with Rauner (he got primaried and lost, iirc, thanks to Obama). The objective for Madigan, I imagine, would be to try and expand the State House majority a seat or two so they can begin bypassing Rauner.

In regards to Obama & the ticket, Democrats were able to hold their majorities in 2014, save for 1 State Senate seat. I'm not sure how higher turnout would affect Republicans in various districts, but I don't think Obama not being on the ticket will be critical here. Might Trump's weakness in suburbs (I assume he is weak in IL like other states) hurt Republican-held seats in such areas?

In 2014 GOP money all went into the Gov's race and the Dems outspent Pubs big in the leg races. This year the big Pub money is in leg races for the first time in over 20 years, and Dems will probably be outspent. No one remembers the last time Dems were outspent in IL leg races.

Dem retirements give the Pubs one Sen seat and almost certainly one House seat right off the bat. The Dems were overextended after 2012 when they won three House seats they didn't expect from their remap. In addition the Dems hold a number of R+ seats in downstate IL that are held by long term incumbents since the turn of the millennium when Dems still held a lot of local districts throughout the mid-Southern US.

To counter that the Dems are spending big in suburban seats. These are lean R seats where they are hoping Trump's unpopularity can be used to their advantage this year. To do that the Dems have to tie the moderate R's in those seats to more extreme Pubs.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2016, 09:17:42 AM »

Some Good News For Dems For A Change: Trump Could Cost GOP A Ton Of State Legislatures

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/2016-state-legislature-elections_us_57e59d50e4b0e28b2b541d62

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Just in case anyone was interested in reading someone's rundown of each competitive chamber. Republicans are quite overextended this cycle (imo), so I see a decent number of gains from Democrats.

Now if only State Dems were pursuing an aggressive strategy.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2016, 09:27:21 AM »

It just got a tiny bit tougher for Kentucky Republicans. The GOP candidate for Kentucky House in my district just withdrew. He wasn't going to win anyway, but this means the Democrats won't have to spend anything defending this seat.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2016, 02:35:11 PM »

Bump as we're just over two weeks out
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mds32
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2016, 03:08:47 PM »


Democratic Pickups:
Arizona Senate (surprise!)
California Assembly 2/3 Vote
Colorado Senate
Nevada Assembly
New Hampshire House
New Mexico House

Republican Pickups:
Georigia 2/3 Vote
Illinois Senate Veto-retention
Kentucky House
Maine House
Washington House


The Washington Senate I think will remain R and I think they will either tie or bring it to a GOP majority in the House. They have some races there that balance out the Trump effect such as SoS, Treasurer, and State Auditor that will keep many from being able to vote straight ticket.

As for Maine, I think the Trump effect in a Presidential year in ME-02 will be too much, the GOP could get enough seats to take the House albeit a small majority. As for Kentucky, I think the down the ballot effect of Trump could be too great for Stumbo this time. The GOP can take back the 2/3 vote in GA I think with picking up an R+8 seat they lost in a special earlier last year and the Illinois Senate could give Gov. Rauner some power in Illinois with the GOP running unopposed to take an R+8 Senate seat there.

As for the Democrats, I think Colorado and New Mexico are self-explanatory. In California I don't think the Democrats will have enough power to get their numbers to 2/3 in the Senate (I think the GOP holds out there), and for the Assembly there are enough seats where I think it is possible. I think the GOP will hold the State Senate in NV but lose to Assembly, not that it will change Gov. Sandoval's operating. In NH the lean of the state in this election should give the state house back to the Democrats in the flip-flop game we have seen since 2008.

Arizona I think will give us a shocker, I think Arizona is going to give the Senate to the Democrats. The Democrats are already set to pick up 1 seat in the 18-12 GOP Chamber. If Trump loses the state I'd say the chances are 50% that the Senate is given to the Democrats or it is tied for two years.
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mds32
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2016, 03:12:04 PM »

I think the Kentucky House will be 54-46 Democratic. There's 2 seats the Republicans will almost certainly lose, but I'm sure they'll gain an open seat back somewhere (in a rural area).

I am certain the GOP will lose the one where the Democrat switched to Republican in the D+5 district. However, I see that being the only GOP loss. I think the GOP could gain 5-7 seats depending on the Trump effect in one of the 3 states Trump might "over-perform" Romney.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2016, 03:15:15 PM »

I am certain the GOP will lose the one where the Democrat switched to Republican in the D+5 district.

I think the GOP is pretty much done in the district around Bardstown also.

There's a couple of GOP incumbents who very well may lose, namely Jim Gooch and Suzanne Miles and possibly even someone else who I forgot about.
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mds32
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2016, 03:23:30 PM »

I am certain the GOP will lose the one where the Democrat switched to Republican in the D+5 district.

I think the GOP is pretty much done in the district around Bardstown also.

There's a couple of GOP incumbents who very well may lose, namely Jim Gooch and Suzanne Miles and possibly even someone else who I forgot about.

I think Miles is fine. She won in a special election certainly, but I think she has established her incumbency for the 1.5 terms she has been there. I wasn't accounting for Gooch, did his party-switch not go over as well? Isn't it an R+ district?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2016, 03:27:29 PM »

I think Miles is fine. She won in a special election certainly, but I think she has established her incumbency for the 1.5 terms she has been there. I wasn't accounting for Gooch, did his party-switch not go over as well? Isn't it an R+ district?

I think Gooch's opponent is a high-profile county judge-exec.

Suzanne Miles's daddy was charged with rape, so that doesn't help:

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/crime/2016/09/06/former-uk-board-chair-billy-joe-miles-charged-rape/89934266

Not sure what makes the GOP great enough to gain many seats this time around.
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Frodo
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2016, 02:26:50 PM »


Republican Pickups:
Georigia 2/3 Vote
Illinois Senate Veto-retention
Kentucky House
Maine House
Washington House


As for Kentucky, I think the down the ballot effect of Trump could be too great for Stumbo this time.

I'm surprised you think Republicans would pick up the Kentucky House this year, what with Trump effectively throwing away the election.  Given Trump, I would think Democrats should be able to hold the line for one more cycle. 

Wouldn't 2018 (as opposed to 2016) be a more logical year for them to pick up this chamber, and complete their takeover of every state legislature in the South?  
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2016, 03:02:38 PM »

Wouldn't 2018 (as opposed to 2016) be a more logical year for them to pick up this chamber, and complete their takeover of every state legislature in the South?  

Considering the disaster that midterms always are, we might think so, except that assumes the GOP doesn't rip apart completely by then.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2016, 04:09:24 PM »

United Mine Workers just endorsed pretty much all Democrats in the Kentucky legislature (with very, very few exceptions). That should carry more weight than Donald Trump's big mouth, or The Media's bottomless GOP support.
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