States where Trump will under and overperform relative to Romney

[Arbitrage1980]

I'm defining this as the % margin between Trump and Hillary rather than the actual % of votes due to the influence of Johnson and Stein.

States where Trump will overperform Romney

Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
Florida
Ohio
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico

States where Trump will underperform Romney

Massachusetts
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia
Texas
Utah
California
Oregon
Washington
Montana
Alaska

[Thomas D]

Blue-Over
Red- Under

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Blue-Over
Red- Under

I'm not sure about AL/MS... Romney kind of hit the ceiling there, as far as I'm concerned. Anyone voting for Trump there probably already voted for Romney

[evergreenarbor]

Clinton overperforms Obama '12
Trump overperforms Romney '12

DC and Hawaii only because of third party voters.

[Spark]

Overperforms Romney '12 %
Underperforms Romney '12 %
Equal to Romney '12 %

[Arbitrage1980]

Overperforms Romney '12 %
Underperforms Romney '12 %
Equal to Romney '12 %

This is a reasonable map but disagree on PA, NJ, IL. In PA Trump is going to get destroyed in the philly and the burbs and think he will lose the state by 6-8%. Romney lost it by more than 5%. NJ has a lot of blacks, jews, and asians, so I see Trump doing worse than Romney there. And in IL, Romney got 25% in Cook County; I think Trump gets around 20% or even a bit less.

[Spark]

Overperforms Romney '12 %
Underperforms Romney '12 %
Equal to Romney '12 %

This is a reasonable map but disagree on PA, NJ, IL. In PA Trump is going to get destroyed in the philly and the burbs and think he will lose the state by 6-8%. Romney lost it by more than 5%. NJ has a lot of blacks, jews, and asians, so I see Trump doing worse than Romney there. And in IL, Romney got 25% in Cook County; I think Trump gets around 20% or even a bit less.

He will come within 3% in PA but still will lose the state, he should do about the same as Romney here in Philly and do agree he will perform worse in the affluent surrounding suburbs. However, Trump will perform much better in the T part of the state and in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. This will compensate for a poorer performance among college educated whites. He is also starting to peel off some of the AA vote. I have been to NJ a lot and I've seen many Trump signs and a few Clinton signs in Camden county. I think she will win the state by at least 7%. As for IL, Trump will only do exponentially better in the rural areas.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Blue: Over
Red: Under
Green: Same

[Intell]

Red- Under
Blue- Over

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Blue - over
Red - under
Green - about the same

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Trump will overperform relative to Romney in:
-West Virginia
-Maine
-Rhode Island
-Vermont
-Delaware
-Illinois
-Iowa
-Hawaii

I doubt that the difference in any of the above states will be notable though...

[Lachi]

He will come within 3% in PA but still will lose the state.

He won't be within 3 percent if he's being demolished in the urban areas of Pennsylvania

[Gustaf]

Is this relative to national average or just in absolute terms?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Trump will not overperform Romney in NJ.  These guys...



Already vote Republican.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]