PA-Morning Call: Clinton +3

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think the real numbers right now are something like +3 or +5 clinton.....different than in OH democrats have kind of a built-in advantage in PA if they can get their voters out, even with working class defectors.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Hillary leading by only 3?! Oh no! Say hello to President Trump!!!! Kidding.

There were polls in 2012 that had Obama ahead by only 2 points so I'm not worried at all. Plus we had that democracy now poll which is better.

[JJC]

President Romney carried Pennsylvania easily, so Trump should have no issue /sarc

November 9th will a day of anger for Trump supporters. They might even riot in the streets.

Trump doesn't even need PA to win. If Hillary loses it however, the election is over.

(And seriously, when's the last time you seen Republicans riot. Liberals, on the other hand...)

Whatever helps you sleep at night. Trump won't win, because Satan isn't that powerful. The white supremacists will be out in the street trying to beat up every non-white person in sight when Trump loses, because they are already sending out threats on social media of putting people in ovens.

Oh look! Demonizing the opposition.

Never seen that before...

BTW, this is for you. https://twitter.com/LibertarianQn/status/778845840496594944

[heatcharger]

Oh look! Demonizing the opposition.

Never seen that before...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I-LQTkytR8

[DrScholl]

President Romney carried Pennsylvania easily, so Trump should have no issue /sarc

November 9th will a day of anger for Trump supporters. They might even riot in the streets.

Trump doesn't even need PA to win. If Hillary loses it however, the election is over.

(And seriously, when's the last time you seen Republicans riot. Liberals, on the other hand...)

Whatever helps you sleep at night. Trump won't win, because Satan isn't that powerful. The white supremacists will be out in the street trying to beat up every non-white person in sight when Trump loses, because they are already sending out threats on social media of putting people in ovens.

Oh look! Demonizing the opposition.

Never seen that before...

BTW, this is for you. https://twitter.com/LibertarianQn/status/778845840496594944

I go by what I see on Twitter. There are Jewish people being told that they'll be turned into soap or thrown into ovens. There are white supremacists saying that once Trump is President, every black person is going to be burned. There are a lot of evil people out there who would react badly to Trump losing.

[ProudModerate2]

i think the real numbers right now are something like +3 or +5 clinton.....different than in OH democrats have kind of a built-in advantage in PA if they can get their voters out, even with working class defectors.

I say the average or trend for PA right now is about +4 to +5 to Hillary.
And the fact that this poll was conducted at a low point for Clinton, makes me feel comfortable that she will hold this state.

[Hilldog]

Democrats seemed happier when she was up by more.  Does anyone know why this would be?

[StatesPoll]

*gasp*

This is why I hate weekly polls.

Clinton is probably leading Pennsylvania, but by 9? This was taken completely after the pneumonia and deplorables, too. Probably junk.

They're not a bad pollster though so I wouldnt classify it as junk just yet.

But you liked previous PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Clinton +9
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245993.0

[StatesPoll]

Obvious junk with swings this big in a week.

But your friend Red Avatar 'Lief' praised of previous week PA-Morning Call Poll: Hillary +8

ABSOLUTELY TREMENDOUS!

[StatesPoll]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls

August-September,2012 Morning Call Polls
Morning Call   9/22 - 9/26   427 LV   5.0   Obama 49   Romney 42   Obama +7
Morning Call   9/10 - 9/16   640 LV   4.0   Obama 50   Romney 41   Obama +9
Morning Call   8/20 - 8/22   422 LV   5.0   Obama 49   Romney 40   Obama +9

[Hilldog]

Romney improved after that but still what you're showing is that it's a left leaning poll showing Trump being close.

[Seriously?]

Hillary leading by only 3?! Oh no! Say hello to President Trump!!!! Kidding.

There were polls in 2012 that had Obama ahead by only 2 points so I'm not worried at all. Plus we had that democracy now poll which is better.

"Democracy Now" is junkier than any other junk that I see out there. It's the husband of a Democrat Congresswoman and James Carville for Christ's sake.

I'd trust ARG and Zogby before that pile of crap. At least they don't post their "results" in Powerpoint presentations.

[Eraserhead]

I seriously doubt that Johnson was ever anywhere near 14% in a state like Pennsylvania to begin with. Even 8% seems too high for him here.

[Speed of Sound]

I seriously doubt that Johnson was ever anywhere near 14% in a state like Pennsylvania to begin with. Even 8% seems too high for him here.

Yeah, it isn't a super 3rd-party friendly state. I'd be surprised if all third parties together got 1.75%.

[philly09]

This poll had a sample size of 486, did it not?  That's a little too small.

[rob in cal]

    Would love to see some regional breakdowns for these PA polls.  Where is Trump making gains?

[StatesPoll]

    Would love to see some regional breakdowns for these PA polls.  Where is Trump making gains?

Western PA = Rust Belt = TRUMP gains
Philly : Perhaps some of the Hillary supporters in Philly are not enthusiastic.
Hillary is losing her numbers. few days ago her philly rally, She couldn't even gather 200 people.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/photo-donald-trump-draws-massive-crowd-far-more-than-hillary-clinton-in-florida/
I guess some of the Hillary supporters in Philly are not enthusiastic. When Election day, They could vote for Johnson or Stein or Stay home.

[philly09]

A lot of GOP pundits agree that this poll is indicative of a sampling error.

[Tender Branson]

Good news for Trump, but not troubling for Hillary as long as he doesn't actually lead a PA poll ...

[StatesPoll]

Good news for Trump, but not troubling for Hillary as long as he doesn't actually lead a PA poll ...

2% leads(4way) is nothing.
Because of turnouts.

Perhaps Hillary can't reach turnouts rate of Obama did in 2008,2012(especially Minorities)
as I said already, it is crazy, Democratic nominee couldn't gather 200 crowds in Philly rally.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/photo-donald-trump-draws-massive-crowd-far-more-than-hillary-clinton-in-florida/

and TRUMP might boost turnouts of HS, Some college White(Men/Women both) in PA(especially Western PA Rust Belt)

[President Johnson]

President Romney carried Pennsylvania easily, so Trump should have no issue /sarc

November 9th will a day of anger for Trump supporters. They might even riot in the streets.

Trump doesn't even need PA to win. If Hillary loses it however, the election is over.

(And seriously, when's the last time you've seen Republicans riot. Liberals, on the other hand...)

He needs Pennsylvania, because won't win Colorado and Nevada. Especially not Colorado (in addition to Florida, Ohio and Iowa).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Don't forget NE PA when discussing "rust belt PA". 


This actually makes a lot more sense in the context of the county polling we have scene.

Luzerne (15+), Lehigh Valley (+12 extrapolating from Northampton to Lehigh County) and Bucks (-4)

Granted the last one was all of PA-08, but most of that is Bucks County and the part that is not, is the Republican bits of Montco (yes that Montco).

I heard someone mention a poll showing Trump up in Erie County but I have not seen that anywhere.

There is just no way that leads like that translate to Clinton +8. She is not doing massively better than Obama in Bucks (He won it by 2 I think). Trump can afford a slight underperformance in the SE as long as he doesn't get killed there, because he is doing so much better than Romney elsewhere in the state. Clinton can abandon the rest of the state save Allegheny and still win off of the SE alone, but not by 8 unless she is truly winning it by 30% like some polls suggested at one point, but there is reason to think that point has passed as of this juncture.

If Johnson is ebbing to Trump, than that would most likely be in two places I would think (Lancaster and Chester counties as well as the Philly burbs at large), places where Trump would struggle with colledge educated Republicans.

[mencken]

I will just leave this here:

Wait, people are freaking out about a poll with a 5.5% MOE, 400 sample size?

Good point. Hillary could be leading by 14.5%. 

Also this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

[Sir Mohamed]

She's still leading and polls have varied over the months. PA is still likely D.

[oriass16]

Morning Call is highly respected pollster along with PPP, last cycle MC polled PA two weeks prior election day and they had Obama ahead by 5 points also PPP had him ahead during election week by 6 points and he ends up winning by 5.4 points.

Morning Call   10/17 - 10/21   444 LV   5.0   50   45   Obama +5
PPP (D)            11/2 - 11/3   790 LV   3.5   52    46    Obama +6

so, I believe Clinton now is ahead by 2-3 points in PA, we know Clinton is weaker than Obama with minorities and if trump can boost high turnout among uneducated whites who knows what is going to happen.