PA-Morning Call: Clinton +3

[EpicHistory]

There were polls in 2012 that had Obama ahead by only 2 points so I'm not worried at all. Plus we had that democracy now poll which is better.

If you're referring to those Democracy Corps polls, they were polls done for a liberal advocacy group that had a D+2 house bias and even have James Carville on the team (IIRC). Those polls are utter junk, while this pollster has an A rating.

He needs Pennsylvania, because won't win Colorado and Nevada. Especially not Colorado (in addition to Florida, Ohio and Iowa).

I mean, it's not like the polls are saying you're completely wrong with regards to Ohio and Iowa at the least, am I right?

I go by what I see on Twitter. There are Jewish people being told that they'll be turned into soap or thrown into ovens. There are white supremacists saying that once Trump is President, every black person is going to be burned. There are a lot of evil people out there who would react badly to Trump losing.

Because a social media site is the ultimate and completely trustworthy source for quality news?

This poll had a sample size of 486, did it not?  That's a little too small.

Last poll only had a sample size of 405, so this one is actually larger than previous. As the Red Avatars noted then, this pollster is A rated by 538.

A lot of GOP pundits agree that this poll is indicative of a sampling error.

Who are these unnamed pundits, and are they pollsters themselves? As well, are they #NeverTrump supporters?

[NOVA Green]

There were polls in 2012 that had Obama ahead by only 2 points so I'm not worried at all. Plus we had that democracy now poll which is better.

If you're referring to those Democracy Corps polls, they were polls done for a liberal advocacy group that had a D+2 house bias and even have James Carville on the team (IIRC). Those polls are utter junk, while this pollster has an A rating.

He needs Pennsylvania, because won't win Colorado and Nevada. Especially not Colorado (in addition to Florida, Ohio and Iowa).

I mean, it's not like the polls are saying you're completely wrong with regards to Ohio and Iowa at the least, am I right?

I go by what I see on Twitter. There are Jewish people being told that they'll be turned into soap or thrown into ovens. There are white supremacists saying that once Trump is President, every black person is going to be burned. There are a lot of evil people out there who would react badly to Trump losing.

Because a social media site is the ultimate and completely trustworthy source for quality news?

This poll had a sample size of 486, did it not?  That's a little too small.

Last poll only had a sample size of 405, so this one is actually larger than previous. As the Red Avatars noted then, this pollster is A rated by 538.

A lot of GOP pundits agree that this poll is indicative of a sampling error.

Who are these unnamed pundits, and are they pollsters themselves? As well, are they #NeverTrump supporters?

Sigh...EpicHistory, let me take you back to Muhlenberg County....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY


Ok... back on track and actually in PA and not KY.

Trump's biggest challenge in PA has always been in the Philly Burbs....

There is not any indication thus far that Trump has actually been able to deliver these voters.

PA/VA/NH are the three states where Team Clinton has been able to nail down suburban educated women that is basically creating a roadblock that has created little movement for Trump.

We can argue about sampling errors, but this poll is not indicative of a dramatic movement towards Trump in PA, although he did chill at Geno's in South Philly a few days back...

[elcorazon]

So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??

she's up 2, maybe 3

[Alcon]

So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??

she's up 2, maybe 3

Indeed. 

Plus, one Pennsylvania poll is no reason to freak out about a gap between the national polls and state polls.  The national polls, in aggregate, effectively have a small margin of error.  But this poll is +/-5%, so even if it's perfectly sampled, the MoE alone can account for Clinton being 5% higher or lower.  There definitely appears to be a little difference between the swing state and national polls this year, but this one poll being "off" isn't much evidence either way.

[Eraserhead]

I seriously doubt that Johnson was ever anywhere near 14% in a state like Pennsylvania to begin with. Even 8% seems too high for him here.

Yeah, it isn't a super 3rd-party friendly state. I'd be surprised if all third parties together got 1.75%.

They'll probably get more than that this year. They got about 1.44% in 2012 and this will be a much bigger year for third parties everywhere.

But yeah, Johnson would be lucky to get 3% or so here, 8% will never happen.