PA-Morning Call: Clinton +3

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Don't forget NE PA when discussing "rust belt PA". 


This actually makes a lot more sense in the context of the county polling we have scene.

Luzerne (15+), Lehigh Valley (+12 extrapolating from Northampton to Lehigh County) and Bucks (-4)

Granted the last one was all of PA-08, but most of that is Bucks County and the part that is not, is the Republican bits of Montco (yes that Montco).

I heard someone mention a poll showing Trump up in Erie County but I have not seen that anywhere.

There is just no way that leads like that translate to Clinton +8. She is not doing massively better than Obama in Bucks (He won it by 2 I think). Trump can afford a slight underperformance in the SE as long as he doesn't get killed there, because he is doing so much better than Romney elsewhere in the state. Clinton can abandon the rest of the state save Allegheny and still win off of the SE alone, but not by 8 unless she is truly winning it by 30% like some polls suggested at one point, but there is reason to think that point has passed as of this juncture.

If Johnson is ebbing to Trump, than that would most likely be in two places I would think (Lancaster and Chester counties as well as the Philly burbs at large), places where Trump would struggle with colledge educated Republicans.