ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2
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  ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2
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Author Topic: ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2  (Read 1812 times)
cinyc
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« on: September 24, 2016, 11:14:38 PM »
« edited: September 24, 2016, 11:37:30 PM by cinyc »

ABC News/Washington Post National Poll
Likely Voters:
Clinton 46% (+0 from Sept 8-10 poll)
Trump 44% (+3)
Johnson 5% (-4)
Stein 1% (-1)
None of these Candidates 1%
Don't Know/No Opinion 3%

Clinton 49% (-2)
Trump 47% (+4)
Neither (Volunteered) 1%
Would Not Vote (Vol.) 2%
No Opinion 1%

September 19-22; 651 LV; MoE +/- 4.5

Registered Voters (from the article):
Clinton 46%
Trump 46%

831 RV; MoE +/- 4
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Buzz
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2016, 11:16:15 PM »

This pretty much sums up the race today imo
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2016, 11:20:42 PM »

That looks about right.

Pretty sh**tty numbers for Johnson and Stein.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2016, 11:21:26 PM »

Ouch...Seems that people like a nutcase that is rude.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2016, 11:23:17 PM »

That looks about right.

Pretty sh**tty numbers for Johnson and Stein.

I expect that the debate will bring their numbers down a bit (in most states), since most voters who haven't made up their minds yet will start to see the election as a binary choice.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2016, 11:24:38 PM »

Was this the one that was Clinton +10 pre-pneumonia?

Polls all over the place this year... Average seems to be a 3-4 point lead
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2016, 11:25:09 PM »

It's pretty beautiful imo that she still leads and her numbers improve when you weed out people less likely to vote.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2016, 11:25:32 PM »

D+10 sample? Amongst adults at least.

Last poll was C+8 (2-way), C+5 (4-way).
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KingSweden
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2016, 11:29:49 PM »

It's pretty beautiful imo that she still leads and her numbers improve when you weed out people less likely to vote.

That surprised me too. RV vs LV has been interesting this year
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2016, 11:29:50 PM »

D+10 sample? Amongst adults at least.

Last poll was C+8 (2-way), C+5 (4-way).

It was D+9 among RVs.  I can't find the partisan breakdown of LVs.
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JJC
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2016, 11:30:13 PM »

D+10 sample? Amongst adults at least.

Last poll was C+8 (2-way), C+5 (4-way).

I used to think that Hillary would need a 2012 turnout to win.

Now she might need a 2008 electorate.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2016, 11:30:43 PM »

D+10 sample? Amongst adults at least.

Last poll was C+8 (2-way), C+5 (4-way).

It was D+9 among RVs.  I can't find the partisan breakdown of LVs.
Probably D+10 if Hillary! got a net bounce from RV to LVs.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2016, 11:32:34 PM »

This race is far from over ...

Hillary can only manage a lead that is outside the MoE in VA right now and is within the MoE in virtually all other swing states.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2016, 11:36:04 PM »

Yup. D+10. Per ABC..

Partisan divisions are 33-23-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, and 37-27-28 among likely voters.

Can someone tell me the last time an election was D+10?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-race-narrows-doorstep-debates-poll/story?id=42313593
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2016, 11:38:30 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2016, 11:55:46 PM by Maxwell »

the reason this is close isn't because of whites (which she beats Obama's margin - 17 vs. 20), but because non-whites (73-23) are actually closer than in 2012 (81-18).
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JJC
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2016, 11:43:01 PM »

Again, I think the reason Hillary is edging Trump nationally yet losing the battleground states is primarily due to CA and NY. Clinton is racking up huge margins in big dem states while Trump is under-performing in traditional GOP states like TX, GA, and AZ.

However, Trump does far better in the rust belt area than a typical GOP candidate. States like OH, IA, MI, WI, ME, PA, and CO. (CO is not in the rust belt but shares a lot of similarities)

Watch the rust belt.
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Absolution9
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« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2016, 11:58:08 PM »

This poll has an interesting question possibly pertaining to ground game (GOTV).  It asks if you have been directly contacted by a representative of either campaign.  Result is 14% yes for Clinton, 15% yes for Trump.  That's counter intuitive if she is really dominating him that badly in GOTV infrastructure.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2016, 12:02:22 AM »

the reason this is close isn't because of whites (which she beats Obama's margin - 17 vs. 20), but because non-whites (73-23) are actually closer than in 2012 (81-18).

Trump is down at least 8% with Hispanics compared to romney but is doing worse? I don't trust this poll...One would have to be insane to vote for Trump and be non-white.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2016, 12:04:21 AM »

the reason this is close isn't because of whites (which she beats Obama's margin - 17 vs. 20), but because non-whites (73-23) are actually closer than in 2012 (81-18).

Trump is down at least 8% with Hispanics compared to romney but is doing worse? I don't trust this poll...One would have to be insane to vote for Trump and be non-white.
Aside from Hispanic advicocy groups, trump is polling at about the same or even a little higher among Hispanics than Romney
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2016, 12:05:28 AM »

the reason this is close isn't because of whites (which she beats Obama's margin - 17 vs. 20), but because non-whites (73-23) are actually closer than in 2012 (81-18).

Trump is down at least 8% with Hispanics compared to romney but is doing worse? I don't trust this poll...One would have to be insane to vote for Trump and be non-white.

Nope.

We have seen this here in Austria, where 20% of people with migration background voted for the far-right FPÖ in the 2015 Vienna state election. That is a HUGE number for people with migration background.

The reason for this, as experts said, could be a fear of naturalized/integrated immigrants that even more unskilled immigrants coming into the country could take their (low-paid) jobs ...

That's why there are not few non-white/naturalized people who actually hate other foreigners coming in and end up voting Trump.
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Hilldog
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2016, 12:06:07 AM »

We'll see what happens after the debates are edited, cut up into ads, and played as sound bites.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2016, 12:07:33 AM »

the reason this is close isn't because of whites (which she beats Obama's margin - 17 vs. 20), but because non-whites (73-23) are actually closer than in 2012 (81-18).

Trump is down at least 8% with Hispanics compared to romney but is doing worse? I don't trust this poll...One would have to be insane to vote for Trump and be non-white.

Nope.

We have seen this here in Austria, where 20% of people with migration background voted for the far-right FPÖ in the 2015 Vienna state election. That is a HUGE number for people with migration background.

The reason for this, as experts said, could be a fear of naturalized/integrated immigrants that even more unskilled immigrants coming into the country could take their (low-paid) jobs ...

That's why there are not few non-white/naturalized people who actually hate other foreigners coming in and end up voting Trump.
That and polls show that the more assimilated Hispanics become the more likely they are to vote for Trump
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Ebsy
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2016, 01:05:42 AM »

Doesn't really gel with the rest of the national polls.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2016, 01:10:08 AM »


'651' LV

.......

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Hilldog
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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2016, 01:22:04 AM »

Doesn't really gel with the rest of the national polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Let's each be our own judge.  I think it's exactly what polls have been showing.  It won't matter after debates are edited, cut up, analyzed, played in ads, and twisted by the media though.
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