ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump is about as good a candidate for non-whites as the Republican Party could reasonably put up.

[Speed of Sound]

Hmmm, a couple polls starting to point towards a Johnson collapse. Was likely to come sooner or later.

[Hilldog]

Hmmm, a couple polls starting to point towards a Johnson collapse. Was likely to come sooner or later.

I've noticed that too but it's unfortunate he's not allowed at the debates simply because he'd drive their ratings down.

[politicallefty]

This poll is a bit worse than some of the other national polls that have been released in the past few days (I think three or four respectable national polls had her up by about 5-7 points). It's a small lead, but still a lead nonetheless. I think taking all the national polls together (discounting certain tracking polls and one of two outliers each way), Hillary is probably up by about 4% nationally (well within the MoE of this poll and the others I mentioned).

Trump is about as good a candidate for non-whites as the Republican Party could reasonably put up.

Lol. Even if I took that seriously, how many people thought McCain was one of the Republicans they could have put up to do well among Hispanics?

[windjammer]

Well,
Is it that so surprising?
Most of the polls have shown either a tie race a narrow Clinton lead, it's not an outlier.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump is about as good a candidate for non-whites as the Republican Party could reasonably put up.

The last time the Republican Party was the party of economic nationalism and industrialization, it was also the party of Civil Rights. And remember, the first time it lost African Americans, it was not over Civil Rights (which they had forsaken them on in the 1870's), but jobs.

A different Trump candidacy without the hard edge and birtherism, could really have gotten 25% among African-Americans.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

D+10 sample? Amongst adults at least.

Last poll was C+8 (2-way), C+5 (4-way).

Jesus will you stop scutinizing party ID you ing retard?  Did 2012 teach you anything?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

D+10 sample? Amongst adults at least.

Last poll was C+8 (2-way), C+5 (4-way).

Jesus will you stop scutinizing party ID you ing retard?  Did 2012 teach you anything?

[nm825]

But muh "terrorism doesn't matter and won't be a boost to Trump." Wait till next week when post-Charlotte samples start coming in.

[StatesPoll]

D+10 sample? Amongst adults at least.

Last poll was C+8 (2-way), C+5 (4-way).

Jesus will you stop scutinizing party ID you ing retard?  Did 2012 teach you anything?

2012 results(National) it was D+6 

[Mr. Morden]

Gender gap in this poll is 38 points(!):

men
Trump 54%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

women
Clinton 55%
Trump 36%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

breakdown by party:

Dems
Clinton 88%
Trump 8%
Johnson 1%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 90%
Clinton 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 0%

Independent
Trump 43%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

by region:

Midwest
Trump 48%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

Northeast
Clinton 60%
Trump 30%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 50%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

West
Clinton 48%
Trump 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The Midwest is bigoted trash. It's outsourcing pigs like Trump that sent their jobs away, but I guess it makes them feel better about themselves to blame minorities.

[NOVA Green]

Gender gap in this poll is 38 points(!):

men
Trump 54%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

women
Clinton 55%
Trump 36%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

breakdown by party:

Dems
Clinton 88%
Trump 8%
Johnson 1%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 90%
Clinton 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 0%

Independent
Trump 43%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

by region:

Midwest
Trump 48%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

Northeast
Clinton 60%
Trump 30%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 50%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

West
Clinton 48%
Trump 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

Those MidWest and West numbers should be concerning for Team Clinton, considering Dem dominance on the Pacific Coast and Illinois that buff those two regional numbers...

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I'm fairly confident that the GOP number for Trump will go down following the debates, especially if he says something really ignorant that inflames the NeverTrumpers. 90% seems excessive

[Virginiá]

Those MidWest and West numbers should be concerning for Team Clinton, considering Dem dominance on the Pacific Coast and Illinois that buff those two regional numbers...

In what respect for the Western numbers? They do not seem that bad. Johnson/Stein are pulling from Clinton there, while Trump is doing 1 point worse than Romney did. It's not ideal I suppose but she still seems OK in CO/NM/West Coast. NV is playing hard to get so far.

For that region I'd only really be worried if Trump/Republicans were doing better than in 2012, or if Clinton was doing so bad she was nearing their numbers due to 3rd party losses.

[NOVA Green]

Those MidWest and West numbers should be concerning for Team Clinton, considering Dem dominance on the Pacific Coast and Illinois that buff those two regional numbers...

In what respect for the Western numbers? They do not seem that bad. Johnson/Stein are pulling from Clinton there, while Trump is doing 1 point worse than Romney did. It's not ideal I suppose but she still seems OK in CO/NM/West Coast. NV is playing hard to get so far.

For that region I'd only really be worried if Trump/Republicans were doing better than in 2012, or if Clinton was doing so bad she was nearing their numbers due to 3rd party losses.

Fair point regarding 3rd Party support in the West...

I'm a bit more concerned about CO than some, although granted much of Trump's improvement in the state has come from bringing the Republican holdouts around, and Clinton still has some room to grow with Millennials there that have been an elusive target, and play a major role in that state's electorate.

[Virginiá]

Fair point regarding 3rd Party support in the West...

I'm a bit more concerned about CO than some, although granted much of Trump's improvement in the state has come from bringing the Republican holdouts around, and Clinton still has some room to grow with Millennials there that have been an elusive target, and play a major role in that state's electorate.

We'll have to see how CO fairs a couple weeks from now.

Something worth considering is the election law changes Democrats passed in 2013, which instituted a mail-in voting system where all active registered voters receive a ballot in the mail, and there is in-person voting/same day voter registration, but in-person voting centers are more limited than they were in 2012 due to the mail component.

Democrats obviously did it at least in part for partisan gain, and same-day registration will help with minorities/Millennials, but I think the unforeseen consequences of mail voting is that it brought more old people into the mix, who are still heavily Republican in CO.

Less in-person polling places + more older voters due to mail, with Millennials more likely to change addresses and thus not get mail ballots means Democrats might have given Republicans an advantage by accident.

Curious to see how this plays out!

[NOVA Green]

Fair point regarding 3rd Party support in the West...

I'm a bit more concerned about CO than some, although granted much of Trump's improvement in the state has come from bringing the Republican holdouts around, and Clinton still has some room to grow with Millennials there that have been an elusive target, and play a major role in that state's electorate.

We'll have to see how CO fairs a couple weeks from now.

Something worth considering is the election law changes Democrats passed in 2013, which instituted a mail-in voting system where all active registered voters receive a ballot in the mail, and there is in-person voting/same day voter registration, but in-person voting centers are more limited than they were in 2012 due to the mail component.

Democrats obviously did it at least in part for partisan gain, and same-day registration will help with minorities/Millennials, but I think the unforeseen consequences of mail voting is that it brought more old people into the mix, who are still heavily Republican in CO.

Less in-person polling places + more older voters due to mail, with Millennials more likely to change addresses and thus not get mail ballots means Democrats might have given Republicans an advantage by accident.

Curious to see how this plays out!

Vote-by-Mail (VbM) has been in places in Oregon for decades now and generally has increased overall turnout, and now there is a new automatic voter registration for new drivers in places as well.

But yes, changing the system might be confusing for some. Not sure about CO, but out here you just drop it in one of many ballot boxes scattered around each county, so one doesn't even need a stamp, and it takes much less time than going to a polling places for the lazier voters, or people without spare time, or odd work schedules, etc...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump must have solidified amongst college educated Republicans in Georgia and Texas to now be ahead by 10 in the South. State polling seems to verify that fact.

Remember when a little while ago he was tied in the South and leading in the Midwest.

[Virginiá]

Vote-by-Mail (VbM) has been in places in Oregon for decades now and generally has increased overall turnout, and now there is a new automatic voter registration for new drivers in places as well.

But yes, changing the system might be confusing for some. Not sure about CO, but out here you just drop it in one of many ballot boxes scattered around each county, so one doesn't even need a stamp, and it takes much less time than going to a polling places for the lazier voters, or people without spare time, or odd work schedules, etc...

Right - overall it's a great system, but it was just recently implemented and I think the short-term effect might be a disproportionate rise in voters that actually vote against Democrats, cancelling out or even overwhelming advantages Democrats thought they might get. Older voters in other mail-vote states like OR/WA are majority Democratic themselves, so it doesn't hurt there, but in CO they are still heavily Republican. Millennials will likely disproportionately not receive ballots for various reasons than older voters will, thus hurting Democrats by "turning out" more Republicans.

Ideally, CO Democrats should enact automatic voter registration and increase the number of "vote centers" when/if they take back the State Senate. This would greatly mitigate the issue with a more mobile voter base.