Social democratic parties today

[Person Man]

This thread reminds me of the "is liberalism dead?" threads from 15 years ago. A lot of people are asking if liberal democracy is going the way communism and whether something like  feudalism will dominate the openning centuries of the 3rd millennium.

[Person Man]

It's no secret that the old establishment social democratic parties have struggled to come up with an adequate response to the way the world has gone in recent years.

They have failed to come up with a response to the rise of nationalism as a response to globalisation, and have failed to offer a convincing economic alternative to the "their is no other way" dogma of market liberalism, either choosing to sell out an adopt it (the French PS, Labour) or by clinging on to narratives of full employment/nationalisation/trade unions that people can't relate to in this world of "flexible" employment and automisation.

The question is what replaces it as the alternative to the establishment. It could be that Nationalism replaces it and the establishment becomes a liberal socially liberal libertarian-leaning alternative. Or it could be something post-national or post-liberal like more control by business or something totally technocratic.

Basically, the post ww2 era could have been defined as the pro-business traditionalists against the pro-labor non-conformists. That could change to be the nationalist establishment against the pro-business non-conformists. The 2025 and 2050 could look like 1825 or 1850.

[Person Man]

Add the Dutch Labour Party, heading for an absolute all-time low and seventh place in the upcoming general election. It is wholly unclear what their achievements in the government with the VVD are; many voters don't think there are any. Budget cuts on healthcare and education have continued unabated under Labour's watch, and the King was allowed to make a speech in which he stated that the welfare state should be transformed to a "participatory state", which roughly means taxes will remain high, but one should not expect the government to actually do anything. Sad!

You think this is because they can'trely on inflationary spending because of the Euro? It's probably a good idea in the long run but not now..

[Person Man]

The question is what replaces it as the alternative to the establishment. It could be that Nationalism replaces it and the establishment becomes a liberal socially liberal libertarian-leaning alternative. Or it could be something post-national or post-liberal like more control by business or something totally technocratic.

Basically, the post ww2 era could have been defined as the pro-business traditionalists against the pro-labor non-conformists. That could change to be the nationalist establishment against the pro-business non-conformists. The 2025 and 2050 could look like 1825 or 1850.

nationalism will replace socialism in the short term, but as nationalism doesn't have any genuine responses to the world as it is, we will continue to see spiralling inequality and a new gilded age.

All of which will usher in a communist revolution. Or something.

I think new ideas such as Unconditional Basic Income, mutualism, and a case for supranational authorities on things like wages or tax and business regulations might be the way forward, and may be an easier sell once nationalist retrenchment fails.

This almost makes a case for Trump, Putin, LePen, Farrange, Dueterte et al. That is that we don't expect nationalism to fix anything but will intstead push up the reckoning needed to "start over" from a couple of decades to a few years from now. It may seem irresponsible (and it is) but would you rather deal with a major time of turbulation when you are 55 or 35?

[Person Man]

This almost makes a case for Trump, Putin, LePen, Farrange, Dueterte et al. That is that we don't expect nationalism to fix anything but will intstead push up the reckoning needed to "start over" from a couple of decades to a few years from now. It may seem irresponsible (and it is) but would you rather deal with a major time of turbulation when you are 55 or 35?

I don't disagree, the rise of the nationalist right terrifies me, but in response to the hypothetical situation you posited, whereby the option was a right wing, liberal right against a populist-nationalist right; I would still try and have some hope of an eventual renaissance of truly egalitarian politics.

What would you rather have? Bob Casey/Gene Taylor / Marco Rubio opposition to Trump or a Mike Gravel/Gary Johnson style opposition? What do you think it would be? Whatdo you think will take for the pendulum to swing back do you think this was it for Humanism/Enlightenment?

[Person Man]

Do we count the Italian Democrats as social Democrats?

Despite the fact that they are the surprising child of the DCs and PCI yes.

Interesting how Renzi has used Obama and Clinton as a model. Can socdems really use ordoliberals as a model for success?

[Person Man]

What would you rather have? Bob Casey/Gene Taylor / Marco Rubio opposition to Trump or a Mike Gravel/Gary Johnson style opposition?

To be honest, I might marginally prefer the former, but would expect the latter.

Whatdo you think will take for the pendulum to swing back do you think this was it for Humanism/Enlightenment?

No I don't think this is it, but the left needs to come up with better answers than what it has at the moment. I'm not exactly coming up with any excellent new insight by saying the left has lost its connection with its own base - because the answers it offers hark back to an era that doesn't really exist any more.

Otherwise, I don't understand your line of questioning, i don't feel particularly optimistic in the short term, because left wing parties manifestly are struggling; but I do feel more optimistic in the long run, because my own belief is the left wing has fundamentally the right diagnosis and the best policies.

I think you understand what I am asking. It could be that the main left ideology just hasn't caught up with technology and that the transformation of the right will align philosophy with ideology.

[Person Man]

In a way, social democratic parties have been victims of their own success. They accomplished much of their goals in the post-war period and are struggling to re-invent themselves, often becoming champions of neo-liberalism as they triangulate towards the political centre. In the meantime, splintering their base as new leftist and/or environmental parties emerge.

Of course, their time will come again (or at least with a new re-aligned left) as we head into this new age of inequality and climate change. We're already seeing it with the rise of Bernie Sanders and (like him or not) Jeremy Corbyn.

Maybe the last world crisis set the stage for the New New Right as the Ordoliberals took over for a time and now the New Left will emerge as a result of the next crisis (once we megadeath scale war (Isn't Syria approaching a megadeath? It will definitely go to at least two if you count Assad winning and making sure another civil war is at least another 30 years off), pervasive double digit unemployment, or both). 

There are three possibilities for a new "Left"
- A liberal "left" that directly confronts Trumpism/Brexitism/Putinism  that is basically a left-libertarian neoglobalist thing that thinks it's "left" through helping the disadvantaged through negative means.  (you can say Gary Johnson is this type of "left")
- An ecologically centered left
- A hard old left ala Sanders/Corbyn emerges as the Alt-Right's policy makes the hard left's policies work and creates demand for them. However Trump's policies could just as much increase labor automation just as the traditional left is claim to do.