CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
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  CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO  (Read 4428 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 25, 2016, 09:29:48 AM »



https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/25/race-tightens-va-trump-down-1-co-9-mo
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 09:31:40 AM »

Didn't they have the same 40-39 race last time they polled Colorado?

Anyways, did they seriously not poll the MO senate race...
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 09:32:43 AM »

Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 09:34:36 AM »

Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?

Tongue
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 09:35:21 AM »

Apparently Trump is doing well with Hispanics in Colorado. This race is more or less tied at this point..maybe Clunton has an edge..
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2016, 09:36:13 AM »

17% of White Evangelicals are undecided in CO wow
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2016, 09:38:14 AM »

Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?
Epic geography fail.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2016, 09:40:46 AM »

Someone please add them to the database ...

CO should be slight Hillary then.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2016, 09:40:55 AM »

17% of White Evangelicals are undecided in CO wow

Yeah, and Hillary's only getting 46% of the Hispanic vote when Obama got 75% last time in the state...

Also why is there no education crosstab?
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2016, 09:44:54 AM »

Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?

XD
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2016, 09:46:11 AM »

MO: Don't know why this needed to be polled
VA: Good result for Hillary
CO: Concerning, but most of the undecided voters are younger voters and I have doubts on the Hispanic numbers (I imagine Hispanics that can do an online poll will be more friendly to Trump). Also this is no shift since their June poll.
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afleitch
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2016, 09:47:11 AM »

17% of White Evangelicals are undecided in CO wow

Yeah, and Hillary's only getting 46% of the Hispanic vote when Obama got 75% last time in the state...

Also why is there no education crosstab?

Yeah, Latino Decisions (9th September mind, so it's old) had her up 72-17 amongst Hispanics. Her best state outside of NC at that time. She'll have slipped a bit, but the polls figures should be taken with a grain of salt.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2016, 09:48:33 AM »

CO is concerning, but remember that it always polls this close when the race is close nationally. Hillary seems to have a much higher ceiling though.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2016, 09:49:49 AM »


Fact: it doesn't matter if you get Wyoming or Colorado mixed up...not such much with Arizona.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2016, 09:50:59 AM »

CO is concerning, but remember that it always polls this close when the race is close nationally. Hillary seems to have a much higher ceiling though.

Yeah, Obama over performed his rcp average by 4 points in 2012.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2016, 09:52:18 AM »

Their last poll in CO was also +1 so no change there.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2016, 09:52:35 AM »

I guess this graphic designer isn't so good at geography, lol. But I guess the takeaway here is that #BattlegroundColorado is a thing again, even if it does lean D a bit.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2016, 10:01:28 AM »

If we are seeing a realignment based on educational attainment, CO shouldn't be this close. Then again, the Latino number in this poll is laughable, so that might explain part of it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2016, 10:07:53 AM »

Keep in mind that a good percent of CO Hispanics (and a majority in NM) are ancestral residents who are basically the Carholic white working class culturally.  Those parts of the state are unlikely to be turned off by Trump as much as Hispanics are nationally.

Also those that are probably the most turned off by Trump, might not be full represented in an online poll.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2016, 10:18:48 AM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-colorado-trump-battles-demographics-clinton-fears-complacency/2016/09/13/4a53405e-79d0-11e6-bd86-b7bbd53d2b5d_story.html

On 9/13, the Washington Post reported that Clinton's internal polling had them up 7.
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Saruman
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2016, 10:49:19 AM »

Clinton's SuperPac is going back into Colorado in October fwiw.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2016, 10:51:57 AM »

Trump probably shouldn't bother with VA at this point.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2016, 11:08:11 AM »


Colorado, CBS/YouGov, 9/21-9/13
Not Sure votes
White - 11%, Hispanic - 12%

Colorado Exit Poll 2012 - White 78% | Hispanic 14%

White 78% x Not sure 11% = 8.58%
Hispanic 14% x Not sure 12% = 1.68%

and red avatars are thinking, oh! oh! oh! Hispanics! Hillary has bigger space to expand.

lol

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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2016, 11:27:02 AM »

These State polls lately have my head spinning they really how to not make any sense based on the demographics of each state and the people at the top of the ticket
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mencken
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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2016, 11:55:59 AM »

Trump probably shouldn't bother with VA at this point.


Only because he's already won the election in a landslide if VA is in play
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