CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

It seems Red Avatars noticed 12% of Hispanic LV answered 'Not Sure'(Undecided)
Meanwhile 11% of white LV answered 'Not sure'

Colorado 2012 exit Poll - White 78%  Hispanic 14%

so,
White 78% x 11%(undecided) = 8.58%
Hispanic 14% x 12%(undecided) = 1.68%

Even consider Hillay has higher +% margins of Hispanics.
It looks TRUMP has bigger spaces to expand than hillary.

This Poll:
White - TRUMP 43% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 6% | Stein 2% |
Hispanic - Hillary 46% | TRUMP 20% | Johnson 9% | Stein 3%

Oh my god, would you stop capitalizing "Trump" every time? It almost looks mocking, to be honest

[ProudModerate2]

CO is concerning, but remember that it always polls this close when the race is close nationally. Hillary seems to have a much higher ceiling though.

Agree.
And with the Hispanic community in this poll showing a "unusual" lower-than-normal number, I believe that Hillary's lead here is higher than +1. Clinton's overall lead in CO (right now) is probably in the area of +4 or +5.

[oriass16]

Colorado is among the firewall states, if trump can break it game over folks.

If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15%  undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).

He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).

[Ljube]

Hillary is a bad fit for Colorado, but Trump is worse.

However, if educated Pubs come home, Trump will have a chance. They are still undecided/pro-Johnson/anti-Trump and we won't know how they decided at least until after the first debate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Trump really has 90% among Republicans nationally, then Conway succeeded in getting him what he needed among the holdouts.

Clearly more work is needed with Evangelicals, though.

As I have been saying for Months, Trump needs to go for a massive win with indies with some kind of Perot style reform agenda. 90% of Republicans, 78% among Evangelicals, Massive turnout and support among Working Class Whites and a double digit lead among indies is a strong enough coalition to break the freiwal.

That impacts Colorado, it also impacts NC, PA, FL and the midwest, as well the two competitive New England states.

[elcorazon]

Funny, because I always thought CO would go off the deep end for Democrats and be noncompetitive by 2020, while VA would remain a close D+1 affair for a few more cycles.

It is worth noting that Obama underpolled here both times by almost as much as he did in NV.  Plenty of final 2012 polls had Romney tied or leading.  Also, Hickenlooper beat his polls both times, particularly in 2010 when it looked like he was in an MOE race.  While Gardner lost, he was expected to lose by more than he did. All things considered, a Dem should be fairly happy with a bare bones lead in CO in this era.

Trump is an awful candidate for VA and Hillary is not as bad in VA as elsewhere. Still VA moving left for sure.

Maybe Hillary's a bad fit in CO, I'm not sure, frankly.

[Virginiá]

It is worth noting that Obama underpolled here both times by almost as much as he did in NV.  Plenty of final 2012 polls had Romney tied or leading.  Also, Hickenlooper beat his polls both times, particularly in 2010 when it looked like he was in an MOE race.  While Gardner lost, he was expected to lose by more than he did. All things considered, a Dem should be fairly happy with a bare bones lead in CO in this era.

Obama did overperform his CO polls for sure. He did quite well, with an RCP average of +1.5 and a win of +5.4, so that makes me feel better about this.

However, didn't you mean "While Gardner won"? He actually matched his RCP average to the T. Average of 2.5, won by 2.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

FTR, someone really needs to fix Wikipedia's election results. They have the wrong numbers for Gardner and in fact it seems like a lot of other races. I wonder where they are getting their numbers from.

[Senator-elect Spark]

If Trump really has 90% among Republicans nationally, then Conway succeeded in getting him what he needed among the holdouts.

Clearly more work is needed with Evangelicals, though.

As I have been saying for Months, Trump needs to go for a massive win with indies with some kind of Perot style reform agenda. 90% of Republicans, 78% among Evangelicals, Massive turnout and support among Working Class Whites and a double digit lead among indies is a strong enough coalition to break the freiwal.

That impacts Colorado, it also impacts NC, PA, FL and the midwest, as well the two competitive New England states.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Colorado is among the firewall states, if trump can break it game over folks.

If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15%  undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).

He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).

There's no such thing as game over when he's tied in Florida, especially with what we know about trying to poll Spanish speakers accurately.  If Clinton takes Florida, that's the election right there, regardless of what happens in CO or NV or ME or NC.

Absolutely right about Florida. If Clinton takes it, them even this map:

results in a Clinton win with 282. Trump would need to take MI, PA or VA to win, and all of those look pretty doubtful.

[oriass16]

Colorado is among the firewall states, if trump can break it game over folks.

If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15%  undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).

He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).

There's no such thing as game over when he's tied in Florida, especially with what we know about trying to poll Spanish speakers accurately.  If Clinton takes Florida, that's the election right there,
regardless of what happens in CO or NV or ME or NC.

If trump prevailed in CO, no way he can lose FL,NC and ME 2.I am not sure about Nevada which he does not need to win at that point.

[EpicHistory]

Clinton's SuperPac is going back into Colorado in October fwiw.

....And that's a surefire sign her internal polling is confirming what both Quinnipac and now YouGov are finding. Ladies and gentlemen, #BattlegroundColorado is here for awhile longer.

[NOVA Green]

Clinton's SuperPac is going back into Colorado in October fwiw.

....And that's a surefire sign her internal polling is confirming what both Quinnipac and now YouGov are finding. Ladies and gentlemen, #BattlegroundColorado is here for awhile longer.

EpicHistory..... on da' money!!!!

It's not just in my head man....

[Panda Express]

If Trump wins Colorado, I will change my avatar to yellow. (Having a yellow avatar is literally the worst)

[Person Man]

If Trump wins Colorado, I will change my avatar to yellow. (Having a yellow avatar is literally the worst)

Colorado is a must win state with how bad the brand is in the rust belt.