Demographics and the Electorate

[jaichind]

In 2012 whites without a college degree turnout reached a record low relative to the non-White vote.  The entire premise of the Trump campaign is that this will reverse itself in significant fashion.  If it does not then Trump will lose by margins most likely worse than Romney.

[jaichind]

Gallup poll seems to indicate that

http://www.gallup.com/poll/195806/americans-less-sure-vote-president.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=lead&g_campaign=tiles

Turnout this year will be below 2012 which is a surprise.

[jaichind]

In theory the White share of the electorate fell from 72% to 70% from 2012 to 2016. But I am not sure about that.  Looking at 2012 vs 2016 exit polls we have

2012
White  72
AA       13
Latino  10
Asian     3
Other    2

2016
White  70
AA       12
Latino  11
Asian     4
Other    3

I am bit skeptical about the surge Other from 2->3.  A lot of it might be people that were labeled/identified as White in 2012 but being labeled/identified as bi-racial.  It seems that if we take that into account, despite the demographic decline of Whites from 2012 to 2016 their share of the electorate mostly stayed the same.  Trump have the added advantage of AA turnout being down which to be fair is coupled with a Latino turnout increase.  But Trump/Romney does better with Latinos versus AA so that shift is also a net win for Trump.