Demographics and the Electorate

[Slander and/or Libel]

This is the thing I just can't square in my mind. Polls are what they are, but these are what I thought at the start of the process, and what I can't shake now:

Romney lost by 4 points in 2012.

If we held turnout and vote share by demographics equal, and just adjusted populations for population growth in the last 4 years, Romney would have lost by 5 points.

Romney won 59% of white people.

Romney won 27% of Hispanics.

Romney won 52% of men, 44% of women.

Given all of these things, I sometimes try to think how they could be different in a Trump-Clinton race. I could see Trump maybe winning a bit more of the white vote, but not a whole lot more. 59% is the highest percentage of the white vote that's gone to one candidate since 1988. Hispanics are likely to vote more against Trump than they did against Romney, and I think they're likely to turn out at least marginally more, though maybe that turnout will be matched by similar increases in turnout by other groups. I could, sadly, see Trump winning up to 55% of of men, but also only getting <40% of women. That might be a wash.

Basically, it looks to me like there are more factors cutting against Trump than for him, demographically, and he needs to make up 5 points of ground from Romney's 2012 baseline.

[Slander and/or Libel]

I think the original question being asked was where Trump is making up ground in the polls relative to what we'd expect from demographics. Is white turnout being driven up like crazy relative to non-white turnout? Is college white turnout depressed? Is male turnout up relative to female turnout? Demographics may not be destiny, but some explanation is in order when the demographics from last time, combined with what the polling tells us of the demographics now, give us such a starkly different result from the polls.