Question - is there any analysis on what the polls projected turnout is? Obviously a single poll is unreliable, but if you aggregate some you should get a picture of what pollsters are predicting.
This is Reuters (who I can only praise for their willingness to share data)
That seems to show a remarkably high drop-off in AA and Hispanic interest, contradicting some of the presumptions made on this thread (especially the apparent increases in enthusiasm among AA voters, and the registration efforts among the Hispanic community).
Assuming the projection is accurate it could mean increased white turnout will deliver the election to Trump (much as happened in the Brexit vote here, where 'anti-establishment' turnout was much higher than anticipated). Unless white people are turning out to vote against him, but there's not a lot of evidence of that.
If the projection isn't accurate, but the basis for LV weighting is similar, this explains partly why Clinton is not doing as well as many people think she should be doing.
