Demographics and the Electorate

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Looking at the 538 calculator, even if black turnout dropped to 10% with these numbers, Clinton would still win. So I don't think that this is something which she needs to be worried about, per se. Of course, this isn't to say that she should forget about black voters entirely, or that they should be written off as "safe" as they so often are these days...

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Turnout will be significantly lower due to both campaigns being negative and both candidates unpopular.

Election results could end up being significantly different from what we expect or what the polls show. This difference may even be staggering (10 point difference in either direction is not beyond the realm of possibility).

The thing is, given that one side's negatives are based much more on fear than the other's, I'm not sure how much this will hold. Fear is a great motivator, after all