Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,344
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« on: September 25, 2016, 03:34:42 PM » |
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excellent post and question. I think it is clear Trump will not do better than Romney with non-whites or with college-whites (and may even do worse) so he has to make up for the Obama-Romney deficit entirely with non-college whites. Which means the election comes down to how big is his margin with NCWs and well do they turn out vs. other groups.
And once again this all comes down to how the pollsters weigh both their RV and their LV samples. But invariably we see that polls with big samples of NCWs show Trump doing well and polls matching the 2012 electorate (or an even less white electorate) look good for Clinton. And of course there is the issue of the Latino vote and how non-Spanish language option polls treat them.
On a recent podcast (cant remember which one) but Paul Begala talked about the campaign polls and Super PAC polls (like Priorities USA which he works for) are basically much better than media polls. Specifically he said the PUSA polls don't show the big fluctuations we have seen in media polls, and have a small but consistent lead for Clinton.
Of course they could all be wrong and Trump may really change everything and huge numbers of NCWs show up vs CWs and NWs, and then he wins. That is a possibility, but that is the only way he wins.
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