Demographics and the Electorate

[Gustaf]

This is a great question - I've been thinking the same myself.

This is also why I think Trump's poor organization should matter. If his only path to victory is a big surge in NCW turnout it seems he would be reliant on a strong GOTV operation. With zero effort from his campaign and a Republican party with lukewarm interest in bringing these (not necessarily Republican even) voters to the polls will he actually be able to do it?

But perhaps it's all wishful thinking.

[Gustaf]

Question - is there any analysis on what the polls projected turnout is? Obviously a single poll is unreliable, but if you aggregate some you should get a picture of what pollsters are predicting.

[Gustaf]

Aren't there better polls than Reuters to use for this?

[Gustaf]

Aren't there better polls than Reuters to use for this?

I can't find any other giving projected turnout rates by different groups. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors when it comes to pollsters stating what the LV screen actually is.

Even without turnout rates don't a lot of pollsters publish crosstabs with nr of respondents included? I'm guessing that would allow backing out what they think the shares of the electorate are.

[Gustaf]

This is excellent!

[Gustaf]

Aren't there better polls than Reuters to use for this?

I can't find any other giving projected turnout rates by different groups. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors when it comes to pollsters stating what the LV screen actually is.

Even without turnout rates don't a lot of pollsters publish crosstabs with nr of respondents included? I'm guessing that would allow backing out what they think the shares of the electorate are.

Are you after the raw number of respondents in each demographic group or the %age of the electorate that they are assumed to make up (after weighting)?  I would think the latter would be the more relevant number, and I'm pretty sure that PPP for example always includes those percentages, for example.

The latter, naturally, since that is what would reflect the LV screen. But I think many pollsters publish reweighted nrs in their crosstabs?

[Gustaf]

This should probably be merged with Erc's demographics thread no?

Anyway, this has Trump running behind Romney's white vote margin by 6% running ahead among blacks by 7% (on the margin, mind you) and facing the same margin among Hispanics. To have that translate into running ahead of Romney by 2% in overall margin, clearly pollsters are expecting turnout to be GOP-friendly compared to 4 years ago.

[Gustaf]

LV screens can get thrown when circumstances are weird. If people are disillusioned maybe they drop out of the screens?

[Gustaf]

https://morningconsultintelligence.com/public/mc/160915_topline_Topicals_LIKELY_VOTERS_v3_AP.pdf

This is the type of crosstab I'm talking about. Quote: " All statistics are calculated
with demographic post-stratification weights applied."

In this poll, Clinton leads by 3% and if I read it correctly the white vote share is 75%.