Which map is more realistic?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 05:28:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Which map is more realistic?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Which map is more realistic?  (Read 336 times)
mencken
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,222
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 25, 2016, 04:33:43 PM »
Map A:



Map B:


Map A is based on 538's poll-based vote share, Map B is based on 538's demographic regression.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,375


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 04:35:56 PM »
Map A.
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 04:39:40 PM »
Map B. Trump is more likely to win Pennsylvania and Colorado than Michigan.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 04:50:40 PM »
Map B. Trump's path to victory is in a breakthrough with normally D-voting white working class voters in places like MN/WI/PA, not by winning western states with high Latino/Mormon populations like NV/CO.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,375


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 05:15:48 PM »
I'm saying Map A mostly because I think Michigan is way more elastic for a candidate like Trump than Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Logged
mencken
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,222
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2016, 10:50:28 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2016, 10:52:30 PM by mencken »
Updated:

Map A:


Map B:


Is Map A's overall stability compared to Map B a testament to the greater precision of polling versus demographic regression, or merely a reflection of the relatively little state polling we have had since late September?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.034 seconds with 13 queries.